Head and shoulders bearish patterns have less than 10% failure
rate, actually less than that. It is a good and reliable
pattern, one of the most potent bearish patterns, from the research
I have seen. Have you seen any research on failure rate of this
pattern Matt?
Posted by powerchord on 22nd of Aug 2008 at 11:23 am
Matt --
Based on those stats you can take a profit 93% of the time --
with a good portion of those profits at least 15% -- I didn't think
H&S tops were that reliable (93%) -- what do you think?
hard to say; his statistics are based on perfect patterns, the
trouble is many of us are 'loose' in our definition of H&S
patterns and many other patterns for that matter.
Here's that original VIX chart
VIX
Posted by matt on 22nd of Aug 2008 at 11:07 am
Here's that original VIX chart I posted back on Aug 5th and 9th, still a possibility of the H&S playing out
VIX chart
VIX
Posted by andreac on 22nd of Aug 2008 at 11:08 am
If head and shoulders bearish pattern plays out on the VIX, we will likely see 1320 on SPX. Looks very possible.
VIX
Posted by andreac on 22nd of Aug 2008 at 11:11 am
Head and shoulders bearish patterns have less than 10% failure rate, actually less than that. It is a good and reliable pattern, one of the most potent bearish patterns, from the research I have seen. Have you seen any research on failure rate of this pattern Matt?
The H/S pattern in the
Posted by hornsant on 22nd of Aug 2008 at 11:22 am
The H/S pattern in the VIX actualy measures down to 10 wich is Feb 07 lows
Statistics on H&S tops
Posted by matt on 22nd of Aug 2008 at 11:16 am
I have a book that gives some statistics on H&S patterns: From Bullowski
H&S tops: Failure rate 7%, Average decline 23%, most likely 15% (though I use pattern height measurement. Percentage meeting price target 63%
H&S
Posted by daniele74 on 22nd of Aug 2008 at 11:28 am
Matt, what do you think of this?
Thanks
Daniele
H & S
Posted by powerchord on 22nd of Aug 2008 at 11:23 am
Matt --
Based on those stats you can take a profit 93% of the time -- with a good portion of those profits at least 15% -- I didn't think H&S tops were that reliable (93%) -- what do you think?
hard to say; his statistics
Posted by matt on 22nd of Aug 2008 at 11:28 am
hard to say; his statistics are based on perfect patterns, the trouble is many of us are 'loose' in our definition of H&S patterns and many other patterns for that matter.
H&S
Posted by powerchord on 22nd of Aug 2008 at 11:29 am
Makes sense -- Thanks