has to remain to the downside as another month goes by and we
are unable to claim the high ground above the 12 month moving
average. As you can see, the 12 month does a nice job of
containing price movement. At this stage I would call this
price action a potential change of trend. The key word being
potential.
It is encouraging that we have not fallen dramatically away
from this area and also that we have edged slightly above the
closing of dominant bullish engulfing candle in October. Yet,
until we can maintain price above the 12 month MA, we are wise to
maintain a defensive posture. Keeping your share size smaller
when long, and our trades to the upside quicker, is a good way to
minimize risk. Patience will be rewarded here, as it will
enable us to move to the right side of the market, when this
potential trend change is over.
If I am looking at your charts correctly, 1241.05 is the 12
month moving average and the S&P closed the month out at
1257.60. Can you please clarify what you mean when you say
the S&P is unable to close above the moving average? Are
you looking for multiple closes above the 12 month because the
S&P is clearly above as of 12/31?
Our Very Big Picture Bias
Posted by johnc on 2nd of Jan 2012 at 08:47 am
has to remain to the downside as another month goes by and we are unable to claim the high ground above the 12 month moving average. As you can see, the 12 month does a nice job of containing price movement. At this stage I would call this price action a potential change of trend. The key word being potential.
It is encouraging that we have not fallen dramatically away from this area and also that we have edged slightly above the closing of dominant bullish engulfing candle in October. Yet, until we can maintain price above the 12 month MA, we are wise to maintain a defensive posture. Keeping your share size smaller when long, and our trades to the upside quicker, is a good way to minimize risk. Patience will be rewarded here, as it will enable us to move to the right side of the market, when this potential trend change is over.
SPX Monthly
Thanks for the chart johnc
Posted by bauer on 3rd of Jan 2012 at 08:25 am
If I am looking at your charts correctly, 1241.05 is the 12 month moving average and the S&P closed the month out at 1257.60. Can you please clarify what you mean when you say the S&P is unable to close above the moving average? Are you looking for multiple closes above the 12 month because the S&P is clearly above as of 12/31?
Chart listed by JohnC is
Posted by jdaswani on 3rd of Jan 2012 at 09:19 am
Chart listed by JohnC is using a Simple Moving Avg, You are using an Exponential Moving avg.
bauer -- you can see
Posted by bkout3 on 3rd of Jan 2012 at 08:36 am
bauer -- you can see the value for the 12 month ma in the upper left at 1280.76