Hello everyone, as you probably figured out by now, I did not
send out a commodity newsletter. I was planning to, however
on Monday I was busy working on a new mechanical system for trading
gold stocks, and this took most of my time. However the
results are very good, therefore I think it's worth it.
Otherwise I'm simply working on finalizing this new GDX system,
I mean that's the most productive thing I can work on day like
today. One thing that I'm now testing is to see the stats of still
taking the trade at the close of the day, vs intra day when the 14
Stochastic crosses above 20% or below 80%. So far the results
are encouraging, it would honestly be simpler to just take the
trades at the close, vs us trying to get an email out intra day on
the exact trading hrs when the Stochastic crossed.
Posted by frtaylor on 27th of Dec 2011 at 04:43 pm
One thing that might be nice would be to email or put up a
sticky note when it's overbought/oversold on the 60 min chart, then
those who want to follow it intraday can get bumped to do so.
But an end-of-day notice is also fine. And thank you
for your effort on the system.
Actually under further investigation, the GDX system continues
to improve as you continue to zoom down into smaller and smaller
time frames. Kind of a fractal nature or those Russian
Matryoshka Dolls that contain smaller and smaller dolls inside each
other.
For example, we are getting the trigger from the daily Renko
chart and I already presented the statistics using a 60 min time
frame to better time the trades. However after looking at
things tonight, you can continue to zone in on better and better
prices, by after the 60 min chart is giving a buy signal, use a 15
min chart, and then a 5 min chart, and then a 1 min chart!
I will if after I investigate a few other things this turns out
to be the best.
however the system looks very good on its own right now.
the performance is basically doubled using the 60 min
Stochastic simply to better time the trades. It makes a lot
of sense because it's common knowledge that a stock is generally
overbought on a 60 min time frame after a daily signal is given,
and vice versa. Good traders utilize multiple time frames to
get better signals. Notice that I simply used the standard 14
length %K on a 60 min chart, I didn't try any odd ball length
settings and this shows that it's not curve fitted, plus it makes
logical sense to use a 60 min chart for timing anyway.
I would like to also investigate this to see if it can improve
the BPGDM system first.
Also the thing to realize about this system is that now many of
the signals will NOT be end of day like they are now. Because
the 14 length %K can give you the timing signal at any hr of the
day. However that said, since the performance is doubled, I
think it's a worth the added complexity.
Lastly, regarding the GDX renko system, the ONLY thing you have
to realize is that over time the daily Renko box size will have to
be adjusted, perhaps only once a year or 2, but it will have to be
adjusted over time as the volatility on GDX changes.
Wow, it does look good. I hope you are still able to enjoy the
holidays while working on this, Looks like alot went into it.
For us retirement account traders,we would need to find and
inverse ETF to use for a short proxy, since most plans don't
allow shorting ( mine doesn't anyway) DUST is the only one I am
aware of.
Posted by CopperMtn on 27th of Dec 2011 at 11:45 am
Ragwing, In addition to DUST, I also have used ZSL to short
silver miners and SPPIX to short the DJ Precious Metals Index. This
fund only trades end of day but can give you inverse, non-leveraged
exposure to major gold producers too.
there is a short term trading fee of $75.00 and since it is a
mutual fund you only can trade it at the end of the day and i
believe there is also a 2% expense ratio involved on it...
Yes I investigated it for hrs yesterday and unfortunately I was
up very late last night investigating that, but also my daughter
was sick and up till about 5 am, so Im on about 1 hr of sleep.
So I may take a short nap today if things are slow, which I
expect them to be.
The 'pros' and 'institutional' traders are gone this week, the
real action will occur when they return in Jan after New Years
New GDX Swing System
Posted by matt on 27th of Dec 2011 at 04:10 am
Hello everyone, as you probably figured out by now, I did not send out a commodity newsletter. I was planning to, however on Monday I was busy working on a new mechanical system for trading gold stocks, and this took most of my time. However the results are very good, therefore I think it's worth it.
Here's a preview of what I've found so far
New GDX Renko Mechanical System - Preview
Yawn...... Otherwise I'm simply working on
Posted by matt on 27th of Dec 2011 at 03:48 pm
Yawn......
Otherwise I'm simply working on finalizing this new GDX system, I mean that's the most productive thing I can work on day like today. One thing that I'm now testing is to see the stats of still taking the trade at the close of the day, vs intra day when the 14 Stochastic crosses above 20% or below 80%. So far the results are encouraging, it would honestly be simpler to just take the trades at the close, vs us trying to get an email out intra day on the exact trading hrs when the Stochastic crossed.
One thing that might be
Posted by frtaylor on 27th of Dec 2011 at 04:43 pm
One thing that might be nice would be to email or put up a sticky note when it's overbought/oversold on the 60 min chart, then those who want to follow it intraday can get bumped to do so. But an end-of-day notice is also fine. And thank you for your effort on the system.
Actually under further investigation, the
Posted by matt on 27th of Dec 2011 at 11:25 pm
Actually under further investigation, the GDX system continues to improve as you continue to zoom down into smaller and smaller time frames. Kind of a fractal nature or those Russian Matryoshka Dolls that contain smaller and smaller dolls inside each other.
For example, we are getting the trigger from the daily Renko chart and I already presented the statistics using a 60 min time frame to better time the trades. However after looking at things tonight, you can continue to zone in on better and better prices, by after the 60 min chart is giving a buy signal, use a 15 min chart, and then a 5 min chart, and then a 1 min chart!
new GDX
Posted by gmrachek on 27th of Dec 2011 at 06:27 am
So will this be implemented and a email sent out when a signal is triggered?
I will if after I
Posted by matt on 27th of Dec 2011 at 10:16 am
I will if after I investigate a few other things this turns out to be the best.
however the system looks very good on its own right now. the performance is basically doubled using the 60 min Stochastic simply to better time the trades. It makes a lot of sense because it's common knowledge that a stock is generally overbought on a 60 min time frame after a daily signal is given, and vice versa. Good traders utilize multiple time frames to get better signals. Notice that I simply used the standard 14 length %K on a 60 min chart, I didn't try any odd ball length settings and this shows that it's not curve fitted, plus it makes logical sense to use a 60 min chart for timing anyway.
I would like to also investigate this to see if it can improve the BPGDM system first.
Also the thing to realize about this system is that now many of the signals will NOT be end of day like they are now. Because the 14 length %K can give you the timing signal at any hr of the day. However that said, since the performance is doubled, I think it's a worth the added complexity.
Lastly, regarding the GDX renko system, the ONLY thing you have to realize is that over time the daily Renko box size will have to be adjusted, perhaps only once a year or 2, but it will have to be adjusted over time as the volatility on GDX changes.
Wow, it does look good.
Posted by ragwing on 27th of Dec 2011 at 10:31 am
Wow, it does look good. I hope you are still able to enjoy the holidays while working on this, Looks like alot went into it.
For us retirement account traders,we would need to find and inverse ETF to use for a short proxy, since most plans don't allow shorting ( mine doesn't anyway) DUST is the only one I am aware of.
Other Short Options for Retirement Accounts
Posted by CopperMtn on 27th of Dec 2011 at 11:45 am
Ragwing, In addition to DUST, I also have used ZSL to short silver miners and SPPIX to short the DJ Precious Metals Index. This fund only trades end of day but can give you inverse, non-leveraged exposure to major gold producers too.
http://www.profunds.com/funds/short_precious_metals.html
Good trading.
sppix
Posted by 8899 on 27th of Dec 2011 at 12:06 pm
there is a short term trading fee of $75.00 and since it is a mutual fund you only can trade it at the end of the day and i believe there is also a 2% expense ratio involved on it...
Yes I investigated it for
Posted by matt on 27th of Dec 2011 at 10:46 am
Yes I investigated it for hrs yesterday and unfortunately I was up very late last night investigating that, but also my daughter was sick and up till about 5 am, so Im on about 1 hr of sleep. So I may take a short nap today if things are slow, which I expect them to be.
The 'pros' and 'institutional' traders are gone this week, the real action will occur when they return in Jan after New Years
thanks for all your hard work on this....
Posted by morton13 on 27th of Dec 2011 at 01:56 pm
this the best trading website out there period!