I agree that SSEC is important. It seems to be 3-6 month before
the rest of the market. Its strange that the index is not going up
when the government is signalling more support to the
economy and at least three different state owned funds recently
have declared that they have started to buy in the stock market.
Seems to be a big deleveraging going on in China, a pre taste of
what may happen in the Western World. I suppose copper will tell
when its time to get out of the general market.
I would throw gold stocks into this category of China/Copper
etc. The bulls premise is that big time inflation will casue
a rise in equities. If inflation were running rampant (if the
chinese are in fact able to continue with 9% GDP growth year after
year after year), then gold stocks should be going to the moon in
anticipation of gold going to $2500. Especially after 19
months of consolidation (going nowhere), gold stocks should be set
for a MASSIVE run. Lately, they have been underperforming and
are at risk of breaking down from a broadening top pattern.
Seems there is a panic/mania to get into US dividend paying
stocks -- the latest safe haven.
Agree again but in the major sell offs people seems to jump into
gold just to get burned when all margin calls forces funds and
people to also sell gold.
Another big theme is that funds are starting to buy corporate
bonds instead/or as a supplement to sovereign bonds. That was
unthinkable just a few years ago. The default risk on, for example
Russia is 17% coming 5 years. The same risk for Microsoft in the
CDS market is 4,3%. That's lower than US with 4,5% probability
right now. China has 12% probability.
for a nothing gain. The interesting thing is that the
selling pressure is not as apparent as just the lack of buying.
I think that could change very quickly but not right yet
apparently. I'll be looking for an entry around 1750 ish, if
we go down that far. The DJ world chart is none too positive
right now either. No matter, I'm still playing for the next
few weeks to be generally positive in the US. We'll see.
$SSEC -- new multi-year lows..... again
Posted by kalinm on 21st of Dec 2011 at 09:43 pm
Broken record.... not sure when it will matter (or, it might cause a flight to "high quality US stocks").
Copper will tell
Posted by lebow on 22nd of Dec 2011 at 01:52 pm
I agree that SSEC is important. It seems to be 3-6 month before the rest of the market. Its strange that the index is not going up when the government is signalling more support to the economy and at least three different state owned funds recently have declared that they have started to buy in the stock market. Seems to be a big deleveraging going on in China, a pre taste of what may happen in the Western World. I suppose copper will tell when its time to get out of the general market.
copper consolidation
Posted by ectoplasm on 22nd of Dec 2011 at 02:13 pm
I wonder if copper is already posting a warning: recent consolidation at the end of the triangle...
I would throw gold stocks
Posted by kalinm on 22nd of Dec 2011 at 02:27 pm
I would throw gold stocks into this category of China/Copper etc. The bulls premise is that big time inflation will casue a rise in equities. If inflation were running rampant (if the chinese are in fact able to continue with 9% GDP growth year after year after year), then gold stocks should be going to the moon in anticipation of gold going to $2500. Especially after 19 months of consolidation (going nowhere), gold stocks should be set for a MASSIVE run. Lately, they have been underperforming and are at risk of breaking down from a broadening top pattern. Seems there is a panic/mania to get into US dividend paying stocks -- the latest safe haven.
Seems also being a trend from sovereign bonds to corp bonds
Posted by lebow on 22nd of Dec 2011 at 02:40 pm
Agree again but in the major sell offs people seems to jump into gold just to get burned when all margin calls forces funds and people to also sell gold.
Another big theme is that funds are starting to buy corporate bonds instead/or as a supplement to sovereign bonds. That was unthinkable just a few years ago. The default risk on, for example Russia is 17% coming 5 years. The same risk for Microsoft in the CDS market is 4,3%. That's lower than US with 4,5% probability right now. China has 12% probability.
I took a shot at a long bounce in October and subsequently stopped out
Posted by johnc on 22nd of Dec 2011 at 07:08 am
for a nothing gain. The interesting thing is that the selling pressure is not as apparent as just the lack of buying. I think that could change very quickly but not right yet apparently. I'll be looking for an entry around 1750 ish, if we go down that far. The DJ world chart is none too positive right now either. No matter, I'm still playing for the next few weeks to be generally positive in the US. We'll see.
SSEC
DJW