10 year yield into a new normalisation?

Instead of saying that the 30-year trend has been broken and we are going up again, maybe this chart can be an alternative? I think from a fundamental point of view, everybody would like to see interest rates around 2-4%. That could be the new normal.  This is perhaps less a forecast than a hope...

ok, works fine now, tnx.

Audio disappears after some minutes, but the new player works. Kind regards

Parabolic move in Apple. Tends to end in tears.

Bitcoin on the move up again...

Head and Shoulder in German DAX? The political uncertainty after Merkels bad election results affects the DAX, which probably is just temporary. However, it can trigger a HS-formation and thus push Europe down.  

Symmetry would imply a test of MA20 and maybe MA50 as well.

The last time the parabolic line was broken, we had a set back for the USD and some consolidation.

Since the inception on the 1/1 1999 the euro was falling until 2001. January 1 2002 the ECB released coins with euro and since then the currency traded up vs USD. From my European perspective I cannot see any reason why the exchange rate USD/EUR will not go back to 1:1 again.

Hi, just wounder about the best way to set a price target in an uptrend with ATH. Following the trend lines seams to be easy in this case. But using fib seams to be hard. 38% on top of the move from 2019 to 1821 gives a price target of 2217. I know this is not science but as you usually say, its good to now the alternatives. 

Steve, tnx for the frank and generous (to Murphy) answer, especially in the weekend newsletter. This is what I really appreciate with BPT: Deep knowledge and insights, no dogmas, step-by-step approach with an open mind to always change stance. Great job guys!

Matt and Steve, the latest analysis from John Murphy at Stockcharts (open for all BPT members I suppose) is very clear and compelling. Its about 2014, the presidential cycle and a new secular bull market. It would be very interesting to hear your views about this analysis.

http://stockcharts.com/members/analysis/20131214-1.html

Better or worse but the EU top has the mandate to stop the clock when they cannot reach an agreement. Nice and effective method. In US it would perhaps be possibly to reach an agreement that they have not met an agreement - but will have a schedule to do that in January. In the meantime all Fiscal Cliff effects may be postponed.

Great newsletter. A clarification: Greece will sell T-bills on Tuesday, not Monday. It will be a higher amount than usual as Greece will refinance a maturing issue. 

The outcome of the auction will probably be decided on Monday on a meeting between the  euro- zone finance ministers, scheduled for Nov. 12. ECB will not support the Greece auction unless EU takes measures but EU will most likely give Greece support this time as well.

Here is a link:

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/greece-sells-e13-billion-in-t-bills-as-protests-continue-20121106-00617#.UJ-9QYcsCWE

Island, Ireland and all the Baltic countries have recovered from the financial crash. The Baltic countries have done so and with impressive sacrifices from the public. I don't believe that that is achievable in the southern part of Europe. The public in Balticum is part of the northern part of Europe with different culture and on top of that lives in the shadow from Russia. The sovereignity is at play for them and that makes the difference to take the tougher path. Greece will have to devaluate with a new currency.

and together with fed they can make the difference. The Fed is not happy with the USD soaring and the politicians in Europe doesn't understand the benefits with a lower euro, so a joint intervention to press down the USD may be in the cards. That would be press all short bets out of the market.

Tnx for all efforts. With all HS formations it doesnt look good with all political turbulens going ahead in Europa at the same time as the LTRO-effect vanishes.