$SPX monthly chart - however honestly
forgetting all the other indicators posted below and going with the
KISS principle, simply using the standard default setting for
Stochastics of 14% K length has been the easiest. Here's a 30 year
chart, as far as I can go back on Stocckcharts.com.
The 50% level has been an important level for a long time for
Stochastics.
In secular bull markets, such as 1982 - 2000, instead of
shorting when %K falls below the 50% level, go flat (because the
long term trend is up), and fall below the 50% level tends to be
quick spikes only.
In secular bear markets however (late 2000 - current), the %K
stochastic will stay below 50% for much longer periods of time,
which is only logical), since Secular Bear markets are typified by
long periods (typically 16 - 19 years of sideways up and down
movement, vs a secular bull market which lasts the same length of
time but increases 10 fold on average from start to finish.
I also added the 11 length RSI indicator at the bottom, I found
that going back to 1960 it rarely got oversold on the monthly chart
and instead of waiting for the %K to go back above 50% for a long,
one could go long early when the RSI closes back over 30%. I
show this via the vertical black lines.
Red arrows= %K
falling below 50%
Green Arrows= %K
closing above 50%
Blue arrows
indicate support areas being tested such as the 20 month MA or 50%
Stochastic
Black arrows= buy
signals from oversold RSI
And again, realize this is a monthly chart, signals come at the
end of a month. But honestly how many of you can stomach monthly
charts? Many of you have trouble following 15/60 min charts and
even daily charts. A lot of members Steve and I talk to tell
us that they are swing traders or long term traders, but then when
a position goes against them 5% they can't handle it. Of
course a lot of this has to do with position size, risk tolerance,
etc.
I only see this chart as a tool perhaps for long term 401K
accounts at jobs that have very restrictive 401K plans that you are
not allowed to make changes to (such as once a month or once a
quarter) and only offer mutual funds through Fidelity that move
with the market and S&P 500.
While the chart is very appealing there are no where near enough
data points to say that the indicators will mean anything for the
future. With a monthly chart we might have to go back a lot further
so as to get maybe at least like 20 signals and then see how it
did. JMHO
Note, I added the 11 length RSI to the monthly SPX chart.
After looking at the SPX going all the way back to 1960 when
it began trading, the RSI only get's oversold during extremely
oversold times on a monthly chart. Therefore when this
happens, instead of waiting for the 14 length stochastics to cross
back above 50% to give a buy signal (or various other indicators
like the ROC etc) go long when the 11 length RSI closes back over
30%
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SPX monthly long term system simplified
Posted by matt on 4th of Dec 2011 at 04:21 pm
$SPX monthly chart - however honestly forgetting all the other indicators posted below and going with the KISS principle, simply using the standard default setting for Stochastics of 14% K length has been the easiest. Here's a 30 year chart, as far as I can go back on Stocckcharts.com.
The 50% level has been an important level for a long time for Stochastics.
In secular bull markets, such as 1982 - 2000, instead of shorting when %K falls below the 50% level, go flat (because the long term trend is up), and fall below the 50% level tends to be quick spikes only.
In secular bear markets however (late 2000 - current), the %K stochastic will stay below 50% for much longer periods of time, which is only logical), since Secular Bear markets are typified by long periods (typically 16 - 19 years of sideways up and down movement, vs a secular bull market which lasts the same length of time but increases 10 fold on average from start to finish.
I also added the 11 length RSI indicator at the bottom, I found that going back to 1960 it rarely got oversold on the monthly chart and instead of waiting for the %K to go back above 50% for a long, one could go long early when the RSI closes back over 30%. I show this via the vertical black lines.
Red arrows= %K falling below 50%
Green Arrows= %K closing above 50%
Blue arrows indicate support areas being tested such as the 20 month MA or 50% Stochastic
Black arrows= buy signals from oversold RSI
And again, realize this is a monthly chart, signals come at the end of a month. But honestly how many of you can stomach monthly charts? Many of you have trouble following 15/60 min charts and even daily charts. A lot of members Steve and I talk to tell us that they are swing traders or long term traders, but then when a position goes against them 5% they can't handle it. Of course a lot of this has to do with position size, risk tolerance, etc.
I only see this chart as a tool perhaps for long term 401K accounts at jobs that have very restrictive 401K plans that you are not allowed to make changes to (such as once a month or once a quarter) and only offer mutual funds through Fidelity that move with the market and S&P 500.
Do you plan to add
Posted by tomakeit on 5th of Dec 2011 at 10:07 am
Do you plan to add it under 'LONG TERM TOOLS'?
While the chart is very
Posted by bkout3 on 5th of Dec 2011 at 09:44 am
While the chart is very appealing there are no where near enough data points to say that the indicators will mean anything for the future. With a monthly chart we might have to go back a lot further so as to get maybe at least like 20 signals and then see how it did. JMHO
That's correct, statistical confidence only
Posted by frtaylor on 5th of Dec 2011 at 09:51 am
That's correct, statistical confidence only begins w/ about 20 data points. Ideally 30.
Note, I added the 11
Posted by matt on 4th of Dec 2011 at 07:18 pm
Note, I added the 11 length RSI to the monthly SPX chart. After looking at the SPX going all the way back to 1960 when it began trading, the RSI only get's oversold during extremely oversold times on a monthly chart. Therefore when this happens, instead of waiting for the 14 length stochastics to cross back above 50% to give a buy signal (or various other indicators like the ROC etc) go long when the 11 length RSI closes back over 30%