though the economy is not like it was back in 2008. From a
subjective/anecdotal standpoint, my brother owns his own
business, business is booming and has been for a year, more orders
then he can handle in fact. He also says that his clients
businesses are booming as well.
now on the other side of the country in NY, a friend who's vice
president of a large business, he said that business can't be
better, tons of orders and it's been this way for a while.
And another friend in California who owns his own business, he
said the same thing, business is booming for him.
Now I remember talking with this guys back in 2008 and their
business had dropped to a standstill, and they struggled.
anyway this is not a scientific study, just saying that things
are not as bad as 2008, and lots of businesses are booming
One of the questions that must be asked when referring to
"booming" business is what the margins are. In most cases,
many businesses have watched the margins shrink and don't have the
ability to raise prices. I am involved in engineering and
construction and see this problem at all levels throughout that
industry. Many small companies I know use razor thin margins
just to keep people employed and their name out there.
Posted by lessarda on 30th of Nov 2011 at 12:13 pm
are near 2007 highs (+ or -) even after massive govt
intervention, whereas a typical recovery has long left the prior
highs in the rear view mirror by now. That's negative divergence on
an economic level and leaves things more vulnerable to the debt
endgame (except maybe for large caps that have been hoarding
cash).
I also talk to people that won't hire until after the election..
In fact, they have cut down to get below 50
people even when they have the business to expand
another blip with Iran with all the money printing that about to
come into the pipeline oil easly can shoot up and all this booming
business will come to a holt IMO. Back then we had our real estate
banking issues now Europe has theirs.
it's been that way for over a year, these cycles don't flip like
a switch.
anyway my post is in contrast to the ultra bears who dominate
the board, so it provides some balance.
as far as oil, in a way oil kind of follows the economy, when
the economy is really weak, it falls, and when the economy is
strong it goes higher, the two are linked.
is there a breakpoint higher price that would cause things to
slow down, sure, but is it $110, I doubt it and think it would be
quite a bit higher
in oil due to Iran not economic conditions, and that premium
will increase the worse things will get out there with those
crazies add to that money printing and the premium goes up much
higher without any economic activity to support that price
rise.
With all the central bank interventions & Iran issue
Posted by mrab on 30th of Nov 2011 at 11:51 am
will not be suprised to see oil goe over $110 shortly, nice tax on an economy that barely growing already.
though the economy is not
Posted by matt on 30th of Nov 2011 at 11:56 am
though the economy is not like it was back in 2008. From a subjective/anecdotal standpoint, my brother owns his own business, business is booming and has been for a year, more orders then he can handle in fact. He also says that his clients businesses are booming as well.
now on the other side of the country in NY, a friend who's vice president of a large business, he said that business can't be better, tons of orders and it's been this way for a while.
And another friend in California who owns his own business, he said the same thing, business is booming for him.
Now I remember talking with this guys back in 2008 and their business had dropped to a standstill, and they struggled.
anyway this is not a scientific study, just saying that things are not as bad as 2008, and lots of businesses are booming
One of the questions that
Posted by oops1e on 30th of Nov 2011 at 12:05 pm
One of the questions that must be asked when referring to "booming" business is what the margins are. In most cases, many businesses have watched the margins shrink and don't have the ability to raise prices. I am involved in engineering and construction and see this problem at all levels throughout that industry. Many small companies I know use razor thin margins just to keep people employed and their name out there.
NFIB business surveys don't show this strength
Posted by lessarda on 30th of Nov 2011 at 12:03 pm
except in select industries -- you know some fortunate business owners ;-)
I'm not saying things are
Posted by matt on 30th of Nov 2011 at 12:08 pm
I'm not saying things are great
I'm just saying it's NOT 2008 right now
not saying that we won't have to pay the piper again for all this debt, just saying things are not and did not get as bad as 2008
I think the big problem is that the best recoveries
Posted by lessarda on 30th of Nov 2011 at 12:13 pm
are near 2007 highs (+ or -) even after massive govt intervention, whereas a typical recovery has long left the prior highs in the rear view mirror by now. That's negative divergence on an economic level and leaves things more vulnerable to the debt endgame (except maybe for large caps that have been hoarding cash).
it all depends on your baseline .. doesn't it?
Posted by zach06 on 30th of Nov 2011 at 12:11 pm
Most of the economy that is good is in the low tax/ right to work states and OIL/Natural gas producing states that don't hinder production.
that might be so.... BUT
Posted by zach06 on 30th of Nov 2011 at 12:03 pm
I also talk to people that won't hire until after the election.. In fact, they have cut down to get below 50 people even when they have the business to expand
heard the same zach
Posted by dylan398 on 30th of Nov 2011 at 12:23 pm
heard the same zach
Business was booming in 2007 before oil spiked
Posted by mrab on 30th of Nov 2011 at 11:59 am
another blip with Iran with all the money printing that about to come into the pipeline oil easly can shoot up and all this booming business will come to a holt IMO. Back then we had our real estate banking issues now Europe has theirs.
it's been that way for
Posted by matt on 30th of Nov 2011 at 12:02 pm
it's been that way for over a year, these cycles don't flip like a switch.
anyway my post is in contrast to the ultra bears who dominate the board, so it provides some balance.
as far as oil, in a way oil kind of follows the economy, when the economy is really weak, it falls, and when the economy is strong it goes higher, the two are linked.
is there a breakpoint higher price that would cause things to slow down, sure, but is it $110, I doubt it and think it would be quite a bit higher
There is at least $10 premium right now
Posted by mrab on 30th of Nov 2011 at 12:08 pm
in oil due to Iran not economic conditions, and that premium will increase the worse things will get out there with those crazies add to that money printing and the premium goes up much higher without any economic activity to support that price rise.
In Canada
Posted by honzer on 30th of Nov 2011 at 12:11 pm
Had a 22 year realtor over and he has 2/3 rds of his listings are FORECLOSURES
Where? "Canada - They are worse"
Posted by kingpin777 on 30th of Nov 2011 at 01:49 pm
Where?
"Canada - They are worse" is a nonsense statement.
That doesn't match any of the stats out there. Nor does it match the anecdotal information I have from a few of my realtor friends.
well I live in
Posted by honzer on 30th of Nov 2011 at 01:53 pm
Kelowna BC and thats what he said 2/3 listings HIS listings FORECLOSURES AND WAS TOLD THAT by other person to
wait until the real estate buble in China explodes
Posted by mrab on 30th of Nov 2011 at 12:14 pm
then we are really going to be in the deep end when their economy starts slowing
I see divergence forming on
Posted by matt on 30th of Nov 2011 at 12:07 pm
I see divergence forming on the crude oil chart anyway via the MACD on the daily
and the weekly still has a broken trendline resistance to deal with