i like it to make a divergent low, for 5 wave down to be
complete, that is, if 5th wave does not extend itself, according to
the count I am keeping, 3rd wave's already extended, so 5th wave
should not extend, I agree with 300 , maybe overshoot 280 or so for
5 = 1.618 * 1, and the bombardment should cease.
My counts have been wrong before, so keep that in mind
EW
analysismay work out successfully for you "on
balance" and if so it should not necessarily be abandoned just
because it is based upon a faulty
theory. Just because the market does not necessarily
follow the EW structure that EW theory proscribes on it does not
mean that it does not often follow that structure, at least
for periods of time. When it does not behave in
accordance with EW theory though, the problem is not with EW
theorists' counts but with the theory; the theory is not
nearly as robust as it claims. Unfortunately, EW theory often
attracts people with a mystical sort of bent who find it hard to
accept that the theory has its failings and therefore blaim
themselves when it does not work.
We use Elliot Wave as a road map and a guide (as a tool that's
all), but not an end all thing and not to predict price targets.
Our primary thing is using trendlines, divergence, and indicators,
price action.
The Elliot Wave that we use is different than what you you have
seen and the standard Elliot Wave, it has been optimized and redone
to take out some of the subjectiveness.
However our thought is this, if the wave count seems obvious,
then fine take a look at it. This was the Case with the SOX
recently, you could clearly count 5 waves down with a divergent
low. On the other hand, if the wave count is at all 'iffy'
then ignore
it.
It's not an end all thing, it's like an indicator that works
sometimes and sometimes it doesn't, but that doesn't make it not
useful or something we should throw away.
Traders become good at looking and using certain things, for
example I know a trader who trades primarily using a modified RSI
setting of 21, he looks for it to bounce off even numbers and he
traders GOOG very effectively doing this. Now when I look at it, I
don't see much, but it works for him, so be it.
Posted by treid4dou on 17th of Aug 2008 at 02:29 pm
The 65 wk. BB.....and the 200 wma.....for HUI work well
for bottoms....plus a lower up trendline since 2002.....gives
around 300.....all coincide....there......+ - a few points....
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HUI
HUI
Posted by googool on 17th of Aug 2008 at 02:03 pm
i like it to make a divergent low, for 5 wave down to be complete, that is, if 5th wave does not extend itself, according to the count I am keeping, 3rd wave's already extended, so 5th wave should not extend, I agree with 300 , maybe overshoot 280 or so for 5 = 1.618 * 1, and the bombardment should cease.
My counts have been wrong before, so keep that in mind
"My counts have been wrong
Posted by martin on 17th of Aug 2008 at 03:03 pm
"My counts have been wrong before, so keep that in mind."
Maybe the problem is with the Elliott Wave theory, not with you. From what I can tell, all EW theorists have the same problems that you describe.
as long as it makes
Posted by googool on 17th of Aug 2008 at 04:07 pm
as long as it makes me money on balance, I am happy with it
EW analysismay work out successfully
Posted by martin on 17th of Aug 2008 at 04:30 pm
EW analysismay work out successfully for you "on balance" and if so it should not necessarily be abandoned just because it is based upon a faulty theory. Just because the market does not necessarily follow the EW structure that EW theory proscribes on it does not mean that it does not often follow that structure, at least for periods of time. When it does not behave in accordance with EW theory though, the problem is not with EW theorists' counts but with the theory; the theory is not nearly as robust as it claims. Unfortunately, EW theory often attracts people with a mystical sort of bent who find it hard to accept that the theory has its failings and therefore blaim themselves when it does not work.
We use Elliot Wave as
Posted by matt on 17th of Aug 2008 at 03:10 pm
We use Elliot Wave as a road map and a guide (as a tool that's all), but not an end all thing and not to predict price targets. Our primary thing is using trendlines, divergence, and indicators, price action.
The Elliot Wave that we use is different than what you you have seen and the standard Elliot Wave, it has been optimized and redone to take out some of the subjectiveness.
However our thought is this, if the wave count seems obvious, then fine take a look at it. This was the Case with the SOX recently, you could clearly count 5 waves down with a divergent low. On the other hand, if the wave count is at all 'iffy' then ignore it.
It's not an end all thing, it's like an indicator that works sometimes and sometimes it doesn't, but that doesn't make it not useful or something we should throw away.
Traders become good at looking and using certain things, for example I know a trader who trades primarily using a modified RSI setting of 21, he looks for it to bounce off even numbers and he traders GOOG very effectively doing this. Now when I look at it, I don't see much, but it works for him, so be it.
HUI
Posted by treid4dou on 17th of Aug 2008 at 02:29 pm
The 65 wk. BB.....and the 200 wma.....for HUI work well for bottoms....plus a lower up trendline since 2002.....gives around 300.....all coincide....there......+ - a few points....