Posted by treid4dou on 17th of Aug 2008 at 01:23 pm
Expecting290/300 to be very close to an intraday low.......The
pattern from August 07 to present.....is identical to the one from
May 04-May 05.....From the test of the low in May 05, after a
H&S pattern, we rallied hard....We should not break the August
07 low.....and rally again....we already seen a stronger HUI/Gold
ratio as a very good indication.....and Silver made the
capitulation move.... Season wise ....its also a good
timing....
i like it to make a divergent low, for 5 wave down to be
complete, that is, if 5th wave does not extend itself, according to
the count I am keeping, 3rd wave's already extended, so 5th wave
should not extend, I agree with 300 , maybe overshoot 280 or so for
5 = 1.618 * 1, and the bombardment should cease.
My counts have been wrong before, so keep that in mind
EW
analysismay work out successfully for you "on
balance" and if so it should not necessarily be abandoned just
because it is based upon a faulty
theory. Just because the market does not necessarily
follow the EW structure that EW theory proscribes on it does not
mean that it does not often follow that structure, at least
for periods of time. When it does not behave in
accordance with EW theory though, the problem is not with EW
theorists' counts but with the theory; the theory is not
nearly as robust as it claims. Unfortunately, EW theory often
attracts people with a mystical sort of bent who find it hard to
accept that the theory has its failings and therefore blaim
themselves when it does not work.
We use Elliot Wave as a road map and a guide (as a tool that's
all), but not an end all thing and not to predict price targets.
Our primary thing is using trendlines, divergence, and indicators,
price action.
The Elliot Wave that we use is different than what you you have
seen and the standard Elliot Wave, it has been optimized and redone
to take out some of the subjectiveness.
However our thought is this, if the wave count seems obvious,
then fine take a look at it. This was the Case with the SOX
recently, you could clearly count 5 waves down with a divergent
low. On the other hand, if the wave count is at all 'iffy'
then ignore
it.
It's not an end all thing, it's like an indicator that works
sometimes and sometimes it doesn't, but that doesn't make it not
useful or something we should throw away.
Traders become good at looking and using certain things, for
example I know a trader who trades primarily using a modified RSI
setting of 21, he looks for it to bounce off even numbers and he
traders GOOG very effectively doing this. Now when I look at it, I
don't see much, but it works for him, so be it.
Posted by treid4dou on 17th of Aug 2008 at 02:29 pm
The 65 wk. BB.....and the 200 wma.....for HUI work well
for bottoms....plus a lower up trendline since 2002.....gives
around 300.....all coincide....there......+ - a few points....
One thing to note, on Thurs - Friday, the HUI did not outperform
relative to gold, take a look at the ratio on a 15 min chart, it
trended down from Thur - Fri. I could see one more slight
pullback early this week in gold socks to form a slightly lower
high, that would be healthy in my opinion.
Posted by treid4dou on 17th of Aug 2008 at 02:39 pm
the ratio has made its low.....in terms of XAU/Gold ratio...it
was 0.166.... it will not violate it.....but this is not
necessarily the indication of a low in Goldstocks....as for any
price in Gold ...a ratio will exist.....Thing is if we bottom at
these levels in HUI and Gold metal.......with a decent bounce till
October....then, maybe re test in November......and further rally
from there....Only trouble is deflation and deleverage....of all
assets......and how Goldstocks will behave under a Broad Mkt.
correction from 1313 to 1060......next 20% correction....
Be careful about making statements
like 'it will not, it must happen, it can't happen. The market can
do anything it wants to.
For example, I've seen too many
traders say the market can't rally because of some fundamental news
doom and gloom etc. Many here have tried to short the market the
whole time from July 15, and the market keeps pushing higher. You
don't need to pick tops and bottoms to make money in the market,
and in fact many go broke trying to pick tops and bottoms. Trade
the charts, not the news, and there are not absolutes with the
market, you have to
go with the flow.
That's why the Watch List does pretty well, I keep it objective and
the trade ideas there are from an unbiased mindset. Traders need to
lose their bias, the best traders are unbiased and trade the
charts. Turn the TV off, Stop Reading Russel and the end of the
world stuff.
My point was yes gold stocks
outperformed slightly for the week, but not as of Thur and Friday,
that's all, don't read anymore into it than that.
HUI
Posted by treid4dou on 17th of Aug 2008 at 01:23 pm
Expecting290/300 to be very close to an intraday low.......The pattern from August 07 to present.....is identical to the one from May 04-May 05.....From the test of the low in May 05, after a H&S pattern, we rallied hard....We should not break the August 07 low.....and rally again....we already seen a stronger HUI/Gold ratio as a very good indication.....and Silver made the capitulation move.... Season wise ....its also a good timing....
HUI
Posted by googool on 17th of Aug 2008 at 02:03 pm
i like it to make a divergent low, for 5 wave down to be complete, that is, if 5th wave does not extend itself, according to the count I am keeping, 3rd wave's already extended, so 5th wave should not extend, I agree with 300 , maybe overshoot 280 or so for 5 = 1.618 * 1, and the bombardment should cease.
My counts have been wrong before, so keep that in mind
"My counts have been wrong
Posted by martin on 17th of Aug 2008 at 03:03 pm
"My counts have been wrong before, so keep that in mind."
Maybe the problem is with the Elliott Wave theory, not with you. From what I can tell, all EW theorists have the same problems that you describe.
as long as it makes
Posted by googool on 17th of Aug 2008 at 04:07 pm
as long as it makes me money on balance, I am happy with it
EW analysismay work out successfully
Posted by martin on 17th of Aug 2008 at 04:30 pm
EW analysismay work out successfully for you "on balance" and if so it should not necessarily be abandoned just because it is based upon a faulty theory. Just because the market does not necessarily follow the EW structure that EW theory proscribes on it does not mean that it does not often follow that structure, at least for periods of time. When it does not behave in accordance with EW theory though, the problem is not with EW theorists' counts but with the theory; the theory is not nearly as robust as it claims. Unfortunately, EW theory often attracts people with a mystical sort of bent who find it hard to accept that the theory has its failings and therefore blaim themselves when it does not work.
We use Elliot Wave as
Posted by matt on 17th of Aug 2008 at 03:10 pm
We use Elliot Wave as a road map and a guide (as a tool that's all), but not an end all thing and not to predict price targets. Our primary thing is using trendlines, divergence, and indicators, price action.
The Elliot Wave that we use is different than what you you have seen and the standard Elliot Wave, it has been optimized and redone to take out some of the subjectiveness.
However our thought is this, if the wave count seems obvious, then fine take a look at it. This was the Case with the SOX recently, you could clearly count 5 waves down with a divergent low. On the other hand, if the wave count is at all 'iffy' then ignore it.
It's not an end all thing, it's like an indicator that works sometimes and sometimes it doesn't, but that doesn't make it not useful or something we should throw away.
Traders become good at looking and using certain things, for example I know a trader who trades primarily using a modified RSI setting of 21, he looks for it to bounce off even numbers and he traders GOOG very effectively doing this. Now when I look at it, I don't see much, but it works for him, so be it.
HUI
Posted by treid4dou on 17th of Aug 2008 at 02:29 pm
The 65 wk. BB.....and the 200 wma.....for HUI work well for bottoms....plus a lower up trendline since 2002.....gives around 300.....all coincide....there......+ - a few points....
One thing to note, on
Posted by matt on 17th of Aug 2008 at 01:57 pm
One thing to note, on Thurs - Friday, the HUI did not outperform relative to gold, take a look at the ratio on a 15 min chart, it trended down from Thur - Fri. I could see one more slight pullback early this week in gold socks to form a slightly lower high, that would be healthy in my opinion.
the ratio has made its
Posted by treid4dou on 17th of Aug 2008 at 02:39 pm
the ratio has made its low.....in terms of XAU/Gold ratio...it was 0.166.... it will not violate it.....but this is not necessarily the indication of a low in Goldstocks....as for any price in Gold ...a ratio will exist.....Thing is if we bottom at these levels in HUI and Gold metal.......with a decent bounce till October....then, maybe re test in November......and further rally from there....Only trouble is deflation and deleverage....of all assets......and how Goldstocks will behave under a Broad Mkt. correction from 1313 to 1060......next 20% correction....
Be careful about making statements like
Posted by matt on 17th of Aug 2008 at 02:43 pm
Be careful about making statements like 'it will not, it must happen, it can't happen. The market can do anything it wants to.
For example, I've seen too many traders say the market can't rally because of some fundamental news doom and gloom etc. Many here have tried to short the market the whole time from July 15, and the market keeps pushing higher. You don't need to pick tops and bottoms to make money in the market, and in fact many go broke trying to pick tops and bottoms. Trade the charts, not the news, and there are not absolutes with the market, you have to go with the flow. That's why the Watch List does pretty well, I keep it objective and the trade ideas there are from an unbiased mindset. Traders need to lose their bias, the best traders are unbiased and trade the charts. Turn the TV off, Stop Reading Russel and the end of the world stuff.
My point was yes gold stocks outperformed slightly for the week, but not as of Thur and Friday, that's all, don't read anymore into it than that.
Be careful about making statements like
Posted by arl3080 on 18th of Aug 2008 at 08:09 am
Be careful about making statements like 'it will not, it must happen, it can't happen. The market can do anything it wants to.
Many years ago on the CME floor a trader told me"The market is gonna do what it's gonna do,when it's gonna do it--No matter what"