Posted by vnathwani on 16th of Aug 2008 at 05:52 am
Both the BKX & XLF are showing MACD Crossovers on the Daily
Chart to the downside and these happened on Thurs/Fri
Whilst 15min may look ok, I think the BKX & XLF are about to
lead the market lower over the coming weeks. They have lead the
market down on recent downturns as per what Steve has elluded to in
his commentary and I think this is about to happen again
For a position trader like myself, I am now net short BKX &
XLF
Posted by hornsant on 16th of Aug 2008 at 01:09 pm
You are right, I have been long XLF for three weeks now and I
plan to sell into strength next week, as to the MACD it is above
"0" and has not yet defined a negative crossing, I think that we
will see more upside and it will be led by financials, that will be
the right time to buy XLF puts, when the VIX goes down to 18...or
16. Lets see how it turns out. Good luck.
what has kept me wary, and away from expanding my
meagre short position is the fact that I hear everywhere
people talking how they plan to short SPX 1320, and many
places are talking turn dates 2nd half of august - crowded
I just think that it is possible that that shorting becomes a
bear trap, and we see a final push higher than SPX 1320, and an
upside resolution to the traingle that XLF is making on a daily
chart, setting a negative divergence and a new high, a squeeze of
late shorts, and we go our merry way down.
Posted by cwa82675 on 17th of Aug 2008 at 11:12 am
I agree. That is why I believe the market did not make it
to 1320. IMO we either fall here not giving many the chance
to short 1320 or we power through it to 1340-1355. I am short
here, but expecting a weak market next week. If we move higher I
will cover some core positions and re-evaluate.
Posted by hornsant on 16th of Aug 2008 at 08:06 pm
Yup, if that plays out then shorts will have to hold their
breath for a bit. It is natural that a crowded
bear favours for the lonley bull. We will see. Anyway,
technicals do not favour a down turn yet: VIX, PCP, etc.
Posted by pcampbell66 on 16th of Aug 2008 at 10:02 am
I agree. In addition, I think that the Russell rejected the 765
area and that the Nasdaq rejected it breakout attempt as well.
Generally, we got very weak loss of momentum candles to close the
week and it think the markets will show significant
weakness...likely starting next week. Matt and Steve have been
increasingly underscoring the need to be very careful with long
trades...I am quite sure that their concerns are not misplaced.
15 minute charts are showing significant negative
divergences for most markets and etf's. XLF and BXK
do not look like good long risks for me from he
15 minute chart. We are still back testing ascending
lows...that's not the most bullish situation.
Both the BKX & XLF
XLF
Posted by vnathwani on 16th of Aug 2008 at 05:52 am
Both the BKX & XLF are showing MACD Crossovers on the Daily Chart to the downside and these happened on Thurs/Fri
Whilst 15min may look ok, I think the BKX & XLF are about to lead the market lower over the coming weeks. They have lead the market down on recent downturns as per what Steve has elluded to in his commentary and I think this is about to happen again
For a position trader like myself, I am now net short BKX & XLF
You are right, I have
Posted by hornsant on 16th of Aug 2008 at 01:09 pm
You are right, I have been long XLF for three weeks now and I plan to sell into strength next week, as to the MACD it is above "0" and has not yet defined a negative crossing, I think that we will see more upside and it will be led by financials, that will be the right time to buy XLF puts, when the VIX goes down to 18...or 16. Lets see how it turns out. Good luck.
what has kept me wary,
Posted by googool on 16th of Aug 2008 at 01:57 pm
what has kept me wary, and away from expanding my meagre short position is the fact that I hear everywhere people talking how they plan to short SPX 1320, and many places are talking turn dates 2nd half of august - crowded
I just think that it is possible that that shorting becomes a bear trap, and we see a final push higher than SPX 1320, and an upside resolution to the traingle that XLF is making on a daily chart, setting a negative divergence and a new high, a squeeze of late shorts, and we go our merry way down.
I agree. That is why
Posted by cwa82675 on 17th of Aug 2008 at 11:12 am
I agree. That is why I believe the market did not make it to 1320. IMO we either fall here not giving many the chance to short 1320 or we power through it to 1340-1355. I am short here, but expecting a weak market next week. If we move higher I will cover some core positions and re-evaluate.
Yup, if that plays out
Posted by hornsant on 16th of Aug 2008 at 08:06 pm
Yup, if that plays out then shorts will have to hold their breath for a bit. It is natural that a crowded bear favours for the lonley bull. We will see. Anyway, technicals do not favour a down turn yet: VIX, PCP, etc.
I agree. In addition, I
Posted by pcampbell66 on 16th of Aug 2008 at 10:02 am
I agree. In addition, I think that the Russell rejected the 765 area and that the Nasdaq rejected it breakout attempt as well. Generally, we got very weak loss of momentum candles to close the week and it think the markets will show significant weakness...likely starting next week. Matt and Steve have been increasingly underscoring the need to be very careful with long trades...I am quite sure that their concerns are not misplaced.
15 minute charts are showing significant negative divergences for most markets and etf's. XLF and BXK do not look like good long risks for me from he 15 minute chart. We are still back testing ascending lows...that's not the most bullish situation.
15 minute XLF chart