Posted by jdaswani on 20th of Oct 2011 at 10:30 am
The next 2wks are very important from a timing standpoint as we
have some important dates for the EU. Oct 23/24 is the big EU
Summit which Merkozy clan have suggested a definitive plan to
emerge. The rhetoric from Sarkozy suggesting a stall in discussions
is hardly positive. Germany no show rumor likely BS. Nov 3rd is the
IMF meeting, most likely we will get some resolution. But the key
here is...NO MACRO fund is going to short ahead of these dates.
Rather they will wait till the news comes out than sell the news.
Will explain why volumes are anemic. My guess is the Macro guys
will torch EURO when the news is finally out. Sovereign crisis or
not we will see a nice selloff after the news comes out.
Till than..Just be nimble and take the trade that comes your
way. Long or Short.
Posted by lessarda on 20th of Oct 2011 at 10:50 am
a German constitutional court jurist, Andreas Vosskuhle, has
publicly warned that, though they approved the last bailout, the
court will require a constitutional amendment based on a public
vote (not just a parliamentary act) for any further shift of fiscal
sovereignty to the EU.
Also, he has made it clear that no leveraging of the EFSF or
'Eurobond' issuance will pass the Court's review.
Putting the kind of solutions rumored by the FT, Guardian, etc.
to a German vote would not pass based on recent polling.
Any German or other European feedback on this would be
appreciated. Again, I haven't seen this reported anywhere and it
seems critical.
I thought it was known to
everyone that a leveraged EFSF violates the Maastricht Treaty.
So this was an
impossible solution from the start as I pointed out a month ago and
the insurance solution is against the German constitution.
Now the press makes
this into a surprise as if no one knew.
I don’t get
it.
General Market Thoughts
Posted by jdaswani on 20th of Oct 2011 at 10:30 am
The next 2wks are very important from a timing standpoint as we have some important dates for the EU. Oct 23/24 is the big EU Summit which Merkozy clan have suggested a definitive plan to emerge. The rhetoric from Sarkozy suggesting a stall in discussions is hardly positive. Germany no show rumor likely BS. Nov 3rd is the IMF meeting, most likely we will get some resolution. But the key here is...NO MACRO fund is going to short ahead of these dates. Rather they will wait till the news comes out than sell the news. Will explain why volumes are anemic. My guess is the Macro guys will torch EURO when the news is finally out. Sovereign crisis or not we will see a nice selloff after the news comes out.
Till than..Just be nimble and take the trade that comes your way. Long or Short.
Haven't seen this publicized:
Posted by lessarda on 20th of Oct 2011 at 10:50 am
a German constitutional court jurist, Andreas Vosskuhle, has publicly warned that, though they approved the last bailout, the court will require a constitutional amendment based on a public vote (not just a parliamentary act) for any further shift of fiscal sovereignty to the EU.
Also, he has made it clear that no leveraging of the EFSF or 'Eurobond' issuance will pass the Court's review.
Putting the kind of solutions rumored by the FT, Guardian, etc. to a German vote would not pass based on recent polling.
Any German or other European feedback on this would be appreciated. Again, I haven't seen this reported anywhere and it seems critical.
Title: quote from mclaren newsletter
Posted by morgan8 on 20th of Oct 2011 at 11:05 am
I thought it was known to everyone that a leveraged EFSF violates the Maastricht Treaty. So this was an impossible solution from the start as I pointed out a month ago and the insurance solution is against the German constitution. Now the press makes this into a surprise as if no one knew. I don’t get it.
German ruling coalition sources say EU
Posted by steve on 20th of Oct 2011 at 10:44 am
German ruling coalition sources say EU summit will not reach a decision on EFSF leveraging