Something to ponder. Most of the world has already broken
this 6 week consolidation to the downside, so what if the Fed
disappoints? Maybe we sell right down to between 1168 and
1180-- within striking distance of a gap out of this consolidation.
Hang Seng would then tank overnight, more Europe rumors would
start up. Tomorrow am, we would then have a "gap of
recognition" that would match what Dr. Copper just produced.
A lot of trapped bulls and bears that were counting on the
Shock and Awe. They will be trapped like rats.
If copper has been writing the script for the equity market to
follow, tomorrow will be a doozy. We could be set up for one
of the biggest gap downs in a while -- and it could only get worse
after that. This would be a "gap of recognition" and would
trap a lot of people. Not a guarantee, but a
possibility.
Posted by xxnileshxx on 21st of Sep 2011 at 04:38 pm
I agree vix was lagging all day and in the last 1/2hr it moved
to close at more the 4x move in spx in % terms. this does not
happen often. we may be in for something big most likely to
down side.
Shock and Awe? Or Awww Shucks!
Posted by kalinm on 21st of Sep 2011 at 12:18 pm
Something to ponder. Most of the world has already broken this 6 week consolidation to the downside, so what if the Fed disappoints? Maybe we sell right down to between 1168 and 1180-- within striking distance of a gap out of this consolidation. Hang Seng would then tank overnight, more Europe rumors would start up. Tomorrow am, we would then have a "gap of recognition" that would match what Dr. Copper just produced. A lot of trapped bulls and bears that were counting on the Shock and Awe. They will be trapped like rats.
If copper has been writing
Posted by kalinm on 21st of Sep 2011 at 04:23 pm
If copper has been writing the script for the equity market to follow, tomorrow will be a doozy. We could be set up for one of the biggest gap downs in a while -- and it could only get worse after that. This would be a "gap of recognition" and would trap a lot of people. Not a guarantee, but a possibility.
I agree vix was lagging
Posted by xxnileshxx on 21st of Sep 2011 at 04:38 pm
I agree vix was lagging all day and in the last 1/2hr it moved to close at more the 4x move in spx in % terms. this does not happen often. we may be in for something big most likely to down side.
Amen brother
Posted by tonto on 21st of Sep 2011 at 04:24 pm
The $Hang Seng will be
Posted by kalinm on 21st of Sep 2011 at 04:31 pm
The $Hang Seng will be interesting to say the least. It will be gapping down into No Man's Land -- horizontal multi-year support.
kalinm - I will point
Posted by steve on 21st of Sep 2011 at 12:30 pm
kalinm - I will point out that statistics are bearish for the next couple of days but again just have to see the reaction to the Fed
I think there was a post way back saying most FED days end up going
Posted by zach06 on 21st of Sep 2011 at 12:34 pm
no where after the announcement... lost of vol... but end up nowhere.... Was that on this blog?
I think that Bespoke has done something like that, but im not sure
Posted by lebow on 21st of Sep 2011 at 12:38 pm
Fed days are up days:
Posted by lebow on 21st of Sep 2011 at 12:41 pm
http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2011/08/31/seasonality-map-for-september-2011/
Here are the stats from 1991-2010
Posted by steve on 21st of Sep 2011 at 12:46 pm
http://screencast.com/t/Bfr81JTi
Needless to say, we have to understand that FED days can impact as lebow posted below. Thanks for sharing lebow
steve, interpretation please
Posted by 8899 on 21st of Sep 2011 at 12:52 pm
for instance, mon 19th shows dow red 35, sp red 45, nas green 55 & russell blue 50...
please excuse my ignorance...thanks in advance
steve, interpretation please
Posted by 8899 on 21st of Sep 2011 at 01:18 pm
bump up
8899 - those are the
Posted by steve on 21st of Sep 2011 at 01:30 pm
8899 - those are the percentages of up days for each index. Sorry for the delay to your question but have been swamped.
Steve what do you mean by
Posted by chlo888 on 21st of Sep 2011 at 12:31 pm
Steve
what do you mean by statistics?
Historical trading statistics during these
Posted by steve on 21st of Sep 2011 at 12:37 pm
Historical trading statistics during these particular days 9/21-9/26) are statistically weak trading days...take it for what's it's worth