This
daily renko chartlooks like a fairly
stress-free way to play SKF/XLF in the current stormy seas.
It uses a box size of 1 point rather than the ATR. This should
eliminate the disappearing signal problem. I would just use the
parabolic SAR as the SKF/XLF trigger and accept the whipsaws gladly
as a cost of doing business.
I am trying to build up a kind of library of tweaked daily Renko
systems that could be used to trade a portfolio of double bull/bear
ETFs like DIG/DUG, QID/QLD etc. I'm aiming it at swing traders who
can just check it each evening and set the buy/sell for the
morning.
I'm also thinking about using a 'dead air' method to avoid
whipsaws. This would keep you out of the market until a trend was
confirmed in one direction or the other, rather than being fully
invested the whole time.
I've been looking at your Renko chart and to be honest, I will
have to have a close look at this in order to fully understand the
possibilities, as I have never used Renko charts!
I'm mostly a swing trader, and will keep a lookout for any
further postings you may have under the SKF/XLF Renko heading if
that's OK.
I think daily Renkos are really good for swing traders who can't
babysit a position during the day. They also enforce discipline
when trading, which I lack. I also really like the fact that they
essentially conceal the small scale price movements that obsess so
many of us.
In a less volatile market, weekly Renkos may also be useful. For
instance,
this weekly Renko of the SPXtells the whole
darn story!
In TA less is often more. I've also been playing around with
charts like
this onewhich de-emphasise price in favor of
indicators such as MACD.
The time axis on a Renko chart doesn't have a fixed scale. The
scale changes as the rate of change of the SP changes. So you just
have to read off the dates at the bottom. This chart covers
July/August. Basically, when the boxes are red you go long XLF and
when they are white you go long SKF, but you wait until the
parabolic SAR flips to make the trade. This avoids most
whipsaws.
I know there was some discussion of Renkos a while back but I
think they are very useful for keeping a position which is agnostic
as to whether we are in a bear or a bull market, and which enforces
tight stop losses, while also keeping the number of trades down to
a minimum.
Ideally I think you would have several of these systems trading
on paired bull/bear ETFs which are as orthogonal to each other as
possible (ie they don't all go up and down in sync). I'll try to
post more of this stuff as I work through it. It's all about
choosing the parameters just right!
I haven't figured out how to back test this using the resources
I have. If I had access to a corpus of historical stock prices I
could write a computer program from scratch to do just that, but I
don't know where I would get the data from. A list of daily closing
prices for a cross section of stocks is all I would need.
SKF/XLF Renko
Posted by unsane on 12th of Aug 2008 at 10:31 pm
This daily renko chartlooks like a fairly stress-free way to play SKF/XLF in the current stormy seas.
It uses a box size of 1 point rather than the ATR. This should eliminate the disappearing signal problem. I would just use the parabolic SAR as the SKF/XLF trigger and accept the whipsaws gladly as a cost of doing business.
I am trying to build up a kind of library of tweaked daily Renko systems that could be used to trade a portfolio of double bull/bear ETFs like DIG/DUG, QID/QLD etc. I'm aiming it at swing traders who can just check it each evening and set the buy/sell for the morning.
I'm also thinking about using a 'dead air' method to avoid whipsaws. This would keep you out of the market until a trend was confirmed in one direction or the other, rather than being fully invested the whole time.
Renko
Posted by bkout3 on 13th of Aug 2008 at 12:27 am
Looks good! Please keep us up to date with your studies.
Matt you seemed excited about Renko charts but then they sort of disappeared -- did you have second thoughts for some reason?
SKF/XLF Renko
Posted by vmath on 12th of Aug 2008 at 11:19 pm
I've been looking at your Renko chart and to be honest, I will have to have a close look at this in order to fully understand the possibilities, as I have never used Renko charts!
I'm mostly a swing trader, and will keep a lookout for any further postings you may have under the SKF/XLF Renko heading if that's OK.
Bloody Hell! Where have I been!?
I think daily Renkos are
Posted by unsane on 12th of Aug 2008 at 11:40 pm
I think daily Renkos are really good for swing traders who can't babysit a position during the day. They also enforce discipline when trading, which I lack. I also really like the fact that they essentially conceal the small scale price movements that obsess so many of us.
In a less volatile market, weekly Renkos may also be useful. For instance, this weekly Renko of the SPXtells the whole darn story!
In TA less is often more. I've also been playing around with charts like this onewhich de-emphasise price in favor of indicators such as MACD.
interesting!!!.....whats the time frame ????
Posted by treid4dou on 12th of Aug 2008 at 10:46 pm
interesting!!!.....whats the time frame ???? looks like a "W" forming...above 122....
The time axis on a
Posted by unsane on 12th of Aug 2008 at 11:01 pm
The time axis on a Renko chart doesn't have a fixed scale. The scale changes as the rate of change of the SP changes. So you just have to read off the dates at the bottom. This chart covers July/August. Basically, when the boxes are red you go long XLF and when they are white you go long SKF, but you wait until the parabolic SAR flips to make the trade. This avoids most whipsaws.
I know there was some discussion of Renkos a while back but I think they are very useful for keeping a position which is agnostic as to whether we are in a bear or a bull market, and which enforces tight stop losses, while also keeping the number of trades down to a minimum.
Ideally I think you would have several of these systems trading on paired bull/bear ETFs which are as orthogonal to each other as possible (ie they don't all go up and down in sync). I'll try to post more of this stuff as I work through it. It's all about choosing the parameters just right!
You just answered my question. Thanks! I'll
Posted by vmath on 12th of Aug 2008 at 11:22 pm
You just answered my question.
Thanks!
I'll be looking out for more of your posts on this at your leisure.
XLF/SKF Renko
Posted by vmath on 13th of Aug 2008 at 12:06 am
Thanks for the posting!
I wonder if you have back tested to see what the results would have been.?
I am a believer in paradox as in less is more not to mention anything that will help me become a more disciplined trader.
I have to catch a few winks but thanks for the info.
Much appreciated. Very informative.!!
Probably catch you on the blog tomorrow.
I haven't figured out how
Posted by unsane on 13th of Aug 2008 at 12:08 am
I haven't figured out how to back test this using the resources I have. If I had access to a corpus of historical stock prices I could write a computer program from scratch to do just that, but I don't know where I would get the data from. A list of daily closing prices for a cross section of stocks is all I would need.
historical daily stock price data
Posted by jgoregon on 13th of Aug 2008 at 01:05 am
historical daily stock price data is available from Yahoo finance. Good luck with the program.
Fricken' awesome! Thank you! My buddy
Posted by unsane on 13th of Aug 2008 at 01:08 am
Fricken' awesome! Thank you!
My buddy runs a mac software company and we've been talking about doing this for the iPhone. I'll talk to him about it tomorrow.