Posted by dallassteve on 18th of Aug 2011 at 02:09 pm
The intermediate trend is down, and I am expecting lower lows
before long. I was kind of hoping to see a bigger retrace
before that happened. Today's action knocked that idea flat.
It is hard for me to visualize a rally now. Be nice to hear
some other opinions before the closing bell.
looks like a falling knife to me although holding any position
overnight seems like gambling as to the next headline one way or
the other that will make fools of the technicals. Maybe the inverse
H&S line is being tested here. Volume spikes remain to the
downside and the green spikes near the earlier low have faded. All
that said we're still above recent support so figuring out what to
do remains difficult IMHO
Posted by chartboy on 18th of Aug 2011 at 02:28 pm
In a Black Swan event like we are in there is no technical
answer to your question. There is however a real world answer. That
is based on your personal answer to the question...Are
you good enough at trading around a position even when it goes
against you that you can justify assuming the added/risk reward of
trading in this type of market? If yes, cut your psotition size
down and trade away...If no, move to the sidelines and stay there
until the vix signals that volatility is on a steady decline.
more downside
Predictions for 2morrow if we close LOD?
Posted by dallassteve on 18th of Aug 2011 at 02:09 pm
The intermediate trend is down, and I am expecting lower lows before long. I was kind of hoping to see a bigger retrace before that happened. Today's action knocked that idea flat. It is hard for me to visualize a rally now. Be nice to hear some other opinions before the closing bell.
I'm sure not adding any long positions today.
looks like a falling knife
Posted by bkout3 on 18th of Aug 2011 at 02:21 pm
looks like a falling knife to me although holding any position overnight seems like gambling as to the next headline one way or the other that will make fools of the technicals. Maybe the inverse H&S line is being tested here. Volume spikes remain to the downside and the green spikes near the earlier low have faded. All that said we're still above recent support so figuring out what to do remains difficult IMHO
In a Black Swan event
Posted by chartboy on 18th of Aug 2011 at 02:28 pm
In a Black Swan event like we are in there is no technical answer to your question. There is however a real world answer. That is based on your personal answer to the question...Are you good enough at trading around a position even when it goes against you that you can justify assuming the added/risk reward of trading in this type of market? If yes, cut your psotition size down and trade away...If no, move to the sidelines and stay there until the vix signals that volatility is on a steady decline.
C
Well stated chartboy
Posted by steve on 18th of Aug 2011 at 02:31 pm
Well stated chartboy