Posted by cwa82675 on 18th of Aug 2011 at 03:49 pm
I have 0 positions right now and am trying to just relax and
enjoy the fireworks. I personally am looking for a good entry
to go long with the vix as high as it is, but that will only happen
in one of two situations. I will want to see the market
consolidate at current levels before making one final low on pos
divergence, or the market continues to sell off to new lows
maybe even making it to sp 1040. After a huge day down like
today without a sizable bounce it tells me there is more sellers in
the wings. Have you guys noticed the large amount of money
pulled out of the market recently? Besides that I think a lot of
people got stuck with their pants down in long positions and were
hoping for a bigger bounce to sell out (which is exactly why we
didnt get a sizable bounce). A move below last weeks lows
will hurt nearly every long and could cause them to capitulate thus
forming a bottom, but we have to make sure pos divergence exists on
the vix and 60 min charts before jumping in. thats just my
opinion...
Posted by wmlafleur on 18th of Aug 2011 at 03:58 pm
What is everyone looking at to play a turn. I like the QQQ
2x around the recent lows. Also, Oil and energy has been beaten up,
shot and thrown in the woodpile, so XLE or DIG looks interesting.
Other observations?
Posted by dallassteve on 18th of Aug 2011 at 02:09 pm
The intermediate trend is down, and I am expecting lower lows
before long. I was kind of hoping to see a bigger retrace
before that happened. Today's action knocked that idea flat.
It is hard for me to visualize a rally now. Be nice to hear
some other opinions before the closing bell.
looks like a falling knife to me although holding any position
overnight seems like gambling as to the next headline one way or
the other that will make fools of the technicals. Maybe the inverse
H&S line is being tested here. Volume spikes remain to the
downside and the green spikes near the earlier low have faded. All
that said we're still above recent support so figuring out what to
do remains difficult IMHO
Posted by chartboy on 18th of Aug 2011 at 02:28 pm
In a Black Swan event like we are in there is no technical
answer to your question. There is however a real world answer. That
is based on your personal answer to the question...Are
you good enough at trading around a position even when it goes
against you that you can justify assuming the added/risk reward of
trading in this type of market? If yes, cut your psotition size
down and trade away...If no, move to the sidelines and stay there
until the vix signals that volatility is on a steady decline.
Predictions for 2morrow if we close LOD?
Posted by Robert50 on 18th of Aug 2011 at 02:01 pm
I have 0 positions right
Posted by cwa82675 on 18th of Aug 2011 at 03:49 pm
I have 0 positions right now and am trying to just relax and enjoy the fireworks. I personally am looking for a good entry to go long with the vix as high as it is, but that will only happen in one of two situations. I will want to see the market consolidate at current levels before making one final low on pos divergence, or the market continues to sell off to new lows maybe even making it to sp 1040. After a huge day down like today without a sizable bounce it tells me there is more sellers in the wings. Have you guys noticed the large amount of money pulled out of the market recently? Besides that I think a lot of people got stuck with their pants down in long positions and were hoping for a bigger bounce to sell out (which is exactly why we didnt get a sizable bounce). A move below last weeks lows will hurt nearly every long and could cause them to capitulate thus forming a bottom, but we have to make sure pos divergence exists on the vix and 60 min charts before jumping in. thats just my opinion...
like your observations and mostly
Posted by dblue on 18th of Aug 2011 at 08:05 pm
like your observations and mostly agree.
What is everyone looking at
Posted by wmlafleur on 18th of Aug 2011 at 03:58 pm
What is everyone looking at to play a turn. I like the QQQ 2x around the recent lows. Also, Oil and energy has been beaten up, shot and thrown in the woodpile, so XLE or DIG looks interesting. Other observations?
more downside
Posted by dallassteve on 18th of Aug 2011 at 02:09 pm
The intermediate trend is down, and I am expecting lower lows before long. I was kind of hoping to see a bigger retrace before that happened. Today's action knocked that idea flat. It is hard for me to visualize a rally now. Be nice to hear some other opinions before the closing bell.
I'm sure not adding any long positions today.
looks like a falling knife
Posted by bkout3 on 18th of Aug 2011 at 02:21 pm
looks like a falling knife to me although holding any position overnight seems like gambling as to the next headline one way or the other that will make fools of the technicals. Maybe the inverse H&S line is being tested here. Volume spikes remain to the downside and the green spikes near the earlier low have faded. All that said we're still above recent support so figuring out what to do remains difficult IMHO
In a Black Swan event
Posted by chartboy on 18th of Aug 2011 at 02:28 pm
In a Black Swan event like we are in there is no technical answer to your question. There is however a real world answer. That is based on your personal answer to the question...Are you good enough at trading around a position even when it goes against you that you can justify assuming the added/risk reward of trading in this type of market? If yes, cut your psotition size down and trade away...If no, move to the sidelines and stay there until the vix signals that volatility is on a steady decline.
C
Well stated chartboy
Posted by steve on 18th of Aug 2011 at 02:31 pm
Well stated chartboy