Posted by hurricanemalta on 13th of Aug 2011 at 07:26 am
Furthermore if this is wave 4 as I think then 110 will get
taken out before a real bounce emerges back up to one of the
important daily ma's etc.Of course I may be wrong.I am looking for
here to 1210 zone tops on this wave 4 bounce and then back
down.
Posted by marketguy on 13th of Aug 2011 at 07:32 am
hurricane...I agree I think odds favor a retest (and most likely
violation) of the previous low "but" I think that will set us up
for a move higher (most likely back into the mid/high 1200's if not
back into the 1300's....
I've screwed things up enough recently (with the help of the
system of course) that I'm going to continue to hold these longs in
anticipation of this scenario (I'm still net short
anyhow)....there's also the "chance" that we just keep running per
the seasonality chart shown in the community blog....
I followed the buy signal, even though my own charts said not
to, because it's a "system" and so presumably 10 times smarter than
me. BS. My own trading has a better profit factor than
the system's real trades so far. Maybe I'll follow the sell
signal, maybe not; from now on I filter this system by real
charting, not just follow a black box.
Posted by burkmere on 13th of Aug 2011 at 08:57 pm
I'd said 20 more trades... But probably six months to a year
will tell the story...they key thing will be whether or not it
outperforms the market enough...Real Time results will be key...so
far six trades after this one...and it will be 3-3. I'll be eager
to see the results after 10 more trades...the next five will be
critical, imo....
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Well...
Posted by burkmere on 12th of Aug 2011 at 04:48 pm
I don't think I'm sellin'. Guess I'll think about it over the weekend.
As of the close today, based on the single entry system, that would be over a 9% loss. Ouch.
Yep we all know ouch as you put it, but as intra trade it was down at 110 suddenly 118 doesn't look so bad!
Posted by hurricanemalta on 13th of Aug 2011 at 07:26 am
Furthermore if this is wave 4 as I think then 110 will get taken out before a real bounce emerges back up to one of the important daily ma's etc.Of course I may be wrong.I am looking for here to 1210 zone tops on this wave 4 bounce and then back down.
So 9% is bad but 15 % was worse.
hurricane...I agree I think odds
Posted by marketguy on 13th of Aug 2011 at 07:32 am
hurricane...I agree I think odds favor a retest (and most likely violation) of the previous low "but" I think that will set us up for a move higher (most likely back into the mid/high 1200's if not back into the 1300's....
I've screwed things up enough recently (with the help of the system of course) that I'm going to continue to hold these longs in anticipation of this scenario (I'm still net short anyhow)....there's also the "chance" that we just keep running per the seasonality chart shown in the community blog....
Think you are right Marketguy.
Posted by Robert50 on 14th of Aug 2011 at 11:00 am
Think you are right Marketguy. Down, then up would be nice.
Title: No sell till I
Posted by rang00n on 13th of Aug 2011 at 08:30 pm
I followed the buy signal, even though my own charts said not to, because it's a "system" and so presumably 10 times smarter than me. BS. My own trading has a better profit factor than the system's real trades so far. Maybe I'll follow the sell signal, maybe not; from now on I filter this system by real charting, not just follow a black box.
I'm willing to give it more time..
Posted by burkmere on 13th of Aug 2011 at 08:57 pm
I'd said 20 more trades... But probably six months to a year will tell the story...they key thing will be whether or not it outperforms the market enough...Real Time results will be key...so far six trades after this one...and it will be 3-3. I'll be eager to see the results after 10 more trades...the next five will be critical, imo....