Huge week-long rally but still no sign of a short trigger.  Could be a flag forming on the hourly, but negative divergence is already on the hourly and reverse divergence on the daily, so might double-down if a short triggers way up here next week. 

Cycles project time but not amplitude; measured moves project amplitude but not time.  Both are shown on this chart.  If this chart is correct, the projected downside is hard to imagine.  The current rally needs to continue and get above SPX 2020 to negate this chart. 

The potential IH&S forming on the hourly coupled with today's move above zero on the McClellan oscillator daily is obviously very bullish short-term.  But a rally to SPX  2000 would still not flip the daily chart to bullish, plus this particular cycle low is not due to bottom until Oct 20 +/-.  If this rally fails in the 2000 area prior to that time, will be shorting again. 

The Russell has now decisively broken below its Aug low.  Am viewing the Russell as the leader index, thus taking this IWM move as predicting that SPX, DJI, XLE, EEM, etc., will all eventually follow and break their Aug lows. 

Usually accurate M-Th.  Method is to buy the close on the TRIN signal day, then use your favorite trailing stop to exit near the next day's high or a later day's high.  But I personally do not trade a Friday TRIN signal because weekend news cycle will often trump the signal.  Market is different over a weekend vs overnight.  Example: TRIN super buy signal Friday, Aug 21, but anyone who took it would have either been stopped out badly on Monday's huge gap down, or forced to hold through a 100+ S&P point drawdown before breakeven later that week.    

The pre-FOMC rally this week not only failed to stop out shorts posted earlier in the coils, but triggered new shorts yesterday EOD.  Today's TRIN forecasts a Monday/Tuesday rally, but after that, still expecting breakdown of coils and original target of Aug lows. 

Compared to SPX, IWM looks more like a bearish rising wedge.

Another huge daily rally far into overbought, and yet it still cannot bust the coil.  Maybe the bulls are rallying into the FOMC just to sell the news. 

A durable multi-week or even multi-month uptrend in GDX is usually confirmed by a tick up in the daily trend line (green).  The line is slow but very accurate, meaning it will not pick the GDX bottom but it can identify when buying pullbacks and selling rallies will become the winning GDX strategy over the next 30 days at least.  The line declined throughout the false Aug breakout and is still pointing down.  Though bullion is expected to seasonally rally in late Summer, will continue to stand aside in GDX until above-described confirmation.   

Daily chart - been shorting since May.  Rallies failing below stops and consistently further below 50dma indicate downtrend intact.  2 hr chart - rally from 58.74 formed continuation triangle; unless it can hit most recent stop, triangle breakdown would confirm daily chart and target the measured move to a new low. 

Bearish a-b-c-d-e count of the triangle still possible despite this morning's gap.

Broke down from yesterday's triangle.  Textbook measured move is retest Aug low.  Currently rallying from hourly oversold, but not oversold yet on daily or even 2-hr.  If counter-trend rally next week fills the gap, will look to short again if it rallies high enough to give a reliable trigger.  

The overthrow of the downtrend line reached yesterday's IH&S measured move target, closed Monday's gap, reached overbought, then triggered an additional short at 197.  Tight stop right above.  Will see what SPY does from here.

FWIW, am short at 198 and will add short if it gets overbought at the triangle top rail or 9 dma (blue line).

Posted a $200 long target Wednesday.  SPY has only reached $199.84, but GOOD ENOUGH, exiting today anyway.  SPY $187 to $199 is a decent bounce on the hourly given the daily chart is still bearish.  Adios.  Will see what SPY does next week.

SPY broke out of the triangle; conservative measured move = 61.8 fib @ $200.  Long from Monday's open w/3x UPRO; if SPY makes it to the mm target @ 200, planning to exit there and wait for a new short setup. 

Ichimoku 2hr - this might be setting up for one more drop into oversold before wave A completes.  Would then put some divergence on the daily.  If this triggers, I am going to short it.  Might squeeze another 20 - 30 SPX points out of wave A yet.

Out earlier today when it rallied back to the 1841 pivot. Good thing too, heck of a green candle today. Guess the April low will have to wait for C down. Steve, thanks a bunch for the abc map.

Short since Sep 24 and still short. No divergence yet on daily; broke 1869 and 1841 pivots; no sign of washout in advance/declines. If it cannot break the 1828 pivot today, will exit; if 1828 pivot breaks, staying in for a target of the April lows. 

Daily chart - bearish chart with a possible bear flag forming, and oscillators reaching overbought. Might be setting up for a nice swing short off a daily chart.