Obviously the trade is not fun so far, but let's take a look at
the current trade stats so far:
1st entry is
down -2.16%
2nd entryis down
-1.12%
3rd entryis down
-0.64%
4th entryis
even
And for the
combined multi entry
system, the position is down only -1.22%, or $100K would be
$98,780
Those are not big numbers honestly. Swing traders
typically give 5 - 7% on positions.
Of course psychologically it feels deeper than this with all the
negative news doom and gloom. Also remember this system is
not a feel good system, it tends to buy when we don't feel like
buying and sometimes it buys too early, and once in a while it
loses a trade, but even the good trades it buys on dips when it
doesn't feel right, it doesn't play momentum.
When I released this system, a lot of members asked me why trade
the multi entry system because the total return using the same
dollar amount is a lot lower, and why not trade SSO, or 3x ETF's,
options, ES instead.
With this current trade you might now have a better
understanding of why I included the multi entry system:
Trading is 95% mental, most people lose because of their
emotion, not because they didn't know how to read a chart or
indicator; their psychology gets in the way. Therefore, even
though the multi entry system makes less money over time,
psychologically it's easier to trade because of the scale in
factor.
Also the system stats are built for trading SPY, which is a very
slow mover, even the 1st entry if this current trade is only down
-2.16%. If you trade 2X and 3X ETF's or options, or leverage
up, then the loss is magnified 2X,3X or much higher. That's
why I say, if you have a decent account size, why go hog wild with
all the leverage, SPY is good enough - that applies if you have
trouble with your risk tolerance accepting a 2% loss. A -2%
loss is small, but it's magnified if you traded 100% of your whole
trading account in the system or used 2 times margin on just SPY.
The SPY system stats are really good, but these are things to
consider and you should still use proper money management - which
means if all the money you have in your trading account is say
$100K, don't put the WHOLE amount or $200K on margin in the system!
That's just not prudent money management with anything.
With this current trade, yes the way the market looks, it will
likely take even more heat. As far as the trade itself, it's
still up in the air about whether it will be a winning or losing
trade. However looking back at the statistics, there's a
decent chance that the 1st or second trades will be losing trades
while the 3rd and 4th will be winning trades.
Posted by chartboy on 14th of Jun 2011 at 01:01 pm
Even for myself, as a trader that was one of the larger
institutional MM's on the street for the better part of decade, and
also as a guy that has professionally prop traded my own money for
a living...I have to say you nailed it right on the head with this
post Matt!
For those that may be new to this type of trading...read Matt's
post... and then read it again and again...in the long run those
words of wisdom are very likely to be the difference between
whether you are still trading in a few years or you have faded away
as most new traders eventually do.
thanks for the feedback! It's true though and these are
things that the public doesn't think about but should when trading.
I've traded systems long enough to know that they do not take
away the emotion, and you have to look things other then total
return.
Some context from a posting by Larry Connors yesterday (BMO
Monday)
Since 1962, the S&P has only once before closed down six
consecutive weeks above its 200-day moving average (it occurred in
January 1969). Last Friday made it twice. When it did occur over 42
years ago, the market rallied strongly the next week and
month.
I’ve looked at a number of indicators over the weekend,
including the 6-week price decline and, adding everything together,
I see nothing out of the ordinary. This has simply been a 7%
pullback coming off of three-year highs made at the end of April.
Whether it pulls back further is unknown but, as I’ve mentioned a
few times, volatility and fear still remain fairly low. Such
complacency is a concern, but all in all the market is due for a
good bounce, especially if we get one sharp down day (that’s where
the real fear will come in).
nice stats sonofrebel, especially the stats about the 6 week
stats, and combined with options expiration that ends to give a bid
to the market after it has been down, with a nice recipe for a
bounce
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
Current Trade stats
Posted by matt on 10th of Jun 2011 at 04:55 pm
Obviously the trade is not fun so far, but let's take a look at the current trade stats so far:
1st entry is down -2.16%
2nd entryis down -1.12%
3rd entryis down -0.64%
4th entryis even
And for the combined multi entry system, the position is down only -1.22%, or $100K would be $98,780
Those are not big numbers honestly. Swing traders typically give 5 - 7% on positions.
Of course psychologically it feels deeper than this with all the negative news doom and gloom. Also remember this system is not a feel good system, it tends to buy when we don't feel like buying and sometimes it buys too early, and once in a while it loses a trade, but even the good trades it buys on dips when it doesn't feel right, it doesn't play momentum.
When I released this system, a lot of members asked me why trade the multi entry system because the total return using the same dollar amount is a lot lower, and why not trade SSO, or 3x ETF's, options, ES instead.
With this current trade you might now have a better understanding of why I included the multi entry system: Trading is 95% mental, most people lose because of their emotion, not because they didn't know how to read a chart or indicator; their psychology gets in the way. Therefore, even though the multi entry system makes less money over time, psychologically it's easier to trade because of the scale in factor.
Also the system stats are built for trading SPY, which is a very slow mover, even the 1st entry if this current trade is only down -2.16%. If you trade 2X and 3X ETF's or options, or leverage up, then the loss is magnified 2X,3X or much higher. That's why I say, if you have a decent account size, why go hog wild with all the leverage, SPY is good enough - that applies if you have trouble with your risk tolerance accepting a 2% loss. A -2% loss is small, but it's magnified if you traded 100% of your whole trading account in the system or used 2 times margin on just SPY.
The SPY system stats are really good, but these are things to consider and you should still use proper money management - which means if all the money you have in your trading account is say $100K, don't put the WHOLE amount or $200K on margin in the system! That's just not prudent money management with anything.
With this current trade, yes the way the market looks, it will likely take even more heat. As far as the trade itself, it's still up in the air about whether it will be a winning or losing trade. However looking back at the statistics, there's a decent chance that the 1st or second trades will be losing trades while the 3rd and 4th will be winning trades.
We'll see I guess....
Very well said Matt!
Posted by chartboy on 14th of Jun 2011 at 01:01 pm
Even for myself, as a trader that was one of the larger institutional MM's on the street for the better part of decade, and also as a guy that has professionally prop traded my own money for a living...I have to say you nailed it right on the head with this post Matt!
For those that may be new to this type of trading...read Matt's post... and then read it again and again...in the long run those words of wisdom are very likely to be the difference between whether you are still trading in a few years or you have faded away as most new traders eventually do.
thanks for the feedback! It's
Posted by matt on 14th of Jun 2011 at 02:33 pm
thanks for the feedback! It's true though and these are things that the public doesn't think about but should when trading. I've traded systems long enough to know that they do not take away the emotion, and you have to look things other then total return.
Re-Current trade stats
Posted by cooksbay on 13th of Jun 2011 at 08:07 pm
Good discussion of reality, Matt.
Much appreciated.
Steve G
Title: Re-current trade stats Some context
Posted by sonofrebel on 14th of Jun 2011 at 01:04 pm
Some context from a posting by Larry Connors yesterday (BMO Monday)
nice stats sonofrebel, especially the
Posted by matt on 14th of Jun 2011 at 10:50 pm
nice stats sonofrebel, especially the stats about the 6 week stats, and combined with options expiration that ends to give a bid to the market after it has been down, with a nice recipe for a bounce