SPY

    Posted by ditch on 13th of May 2011 at 01:33 pm

    I'm about to get a buy on the SDS as the spy looks to be about to roll over. and the 5 min. Vix turn up.

     

     In at $20.42

    SDS

    Posted by jamesl on 13th of May 2011 at 01:45 pm

    ditch

    I am not as astute as many of you, but I've been watching the 60 Sto, on the daily chart. If (when) it goes over 20%, I was looking for that to be a trigger to buy SDS.

    What do you think?

    Yes I actually wrote my

    Posted by tom on 13th of May 2011 at 02:12 pm

    Yes I actually wrote my response to you from the short side instead of the long, sorry for that, so lets say the 60 stoch pops up over the 20 level on the daily but as that happens the 14 is basically or possibly overbought, I might then wait for the 14 to drop back to the 50 level or likely oven back down to oversold before entering (you could also scale in at desired levels).  The risk is that never happens and the stock takes off but while waiting for the 14 to become oversold what is the 60 stoch drops back below 20, well your thesis is probably over and you would normally be trying to decide whether or not to exit - in this case you were never in so you just start the process over again.

    Its an art not a science but just my thoughts.  Hope that helps!

    Agreed Ditch.  I still look

    Posted by tom on 13th of May 2011 at 01:56 pm

    Agreed Ditch.  I still look at the 60 but after a 1-4 hour chart I do give it less credence when compared to the 14.  So lower timeframes using the 60 = more credence, higher = ok for overall tend but generally too slow to consistently trade with.  So what does that mean for you jamesl?  Maybe a set-up I would give more credence to is losing the 60 on the Daily but waiting for then the 14 to get overbought, check back with the 60 stoch, if it continues to trend lower and now the 14 overbought then I look to short. 

    Does that make sense?

    The problem can be when you short the actual action on some lagging indicators then you short the bottom and the position almost immediately goes against you unless you get a continued emotional move (which happens more on stocks than indicies IMO).  By waiting for the shorter term indicator, and price, to bounce you decrease the risk/reward - also, your sentiment might change on the bounce and you realize the break was a false one - just this schmucks opinion.

    Thanks Tom. Yes that does

    Posted by jamesl on 13th of May 2011 at 02:04 pm

    Thanks Tom. Yes that does make sense.

    If I'm understanding correctly, I should look to the 14 & IF the 60 confirms (by going up), then ok.

    If the 14 becomes overbought, and the 60 doesn't confirm...probably a false break.

    Did I get it right?

    Right, the best set ups

    Posted by ditch on 13th of May 2011 at 02:02 pm

    Right, the best set ups happen when they are both over bought or over sold to the extremes, as this chart shows where the red arrows happen, but this last trade of buying SDS $20.42 the 14 was extremely over bought on the SPY:TLT but the 60 was not, there fore it's high risk and looks like it may go against me. I should have waited till they were both at extreme levels.

    http://screencast.com/t/OsilFjGb6txA

    I find the 60 sto

    Posted by ditch on 13th of May 2011 at 01:50 pm

    I find the 60 sto to be too slow on daily charts, I know Steve and Matt and others use that but I prefer the 14 slo sto.

    Thank you. I like Matt &

    Posted by jamesl on 13th of May 2011 at 01:52 pm

    Thank you.

    I like Matt & Steve's approach, but your opinion is much appreciated.

    Thanks agian.

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