This site should have a blogroll column on it. Seriously guys. I
just mentioned this earlier today with respect to some guy saying
the Dollar is dead. His track record from everything I have
searched wasn't good and his the dollar is dead article was simply
headline grabbing journalism. Surely you can all see that???
In terms of Peter, his systems are incredibly strong. Out of
this world and better than anything I can or probably ever will be
able to code. I get PFs 5-20. He gets north of 50 I think.
Astronomical. So no doubting his record at objective system
writing
In terms of his market calls, I recall 2 previous ones. One was
predicting a c20% fall in Q4 2009 and the other was predicting a
c20% fall again in Q4 2010. So from my perspective and unless
anyone has any empirical evidence to the contrary, its something I
wouldn't read anything into.
marketguy -- just to keep things clear -- the daily M3 switch
Matt shows is his own setting. It has nothing to do with
Peter Campbell except that Peter coded the indicator. But he
doesn't use or show that indicator with those settings on his
blog. That's a BPT thing.
thats a fair question and i have no idea. But you must remember.
His systems are swing trading systems which from memory have a
trade lasting 1-7days. Something like that. These end of the world
or catastrophe or mini crash or major correction calls are several
weeks or 2-3month calls. The 2 are different
Think Michael sums up his systems well. They are not correlated
or related to his personal opinion.
vimal -- Peter has systems running on daily/weekly time frames,
down to minute time frames. So its all very hedged.
While a longer term system could be short and having a drawdown,
shorter term systems can be making money on the long side, etc.
Peter in his writing is offering his general analysis, thoughts
and opinion about the markets. But he never says "go short
tomorrow" or "go long tomorrow". Because he's not trading
forecasts and opinions, even his own. Meanwhile his
systems are not forecasting anything and not thinking anything --
they are just going about the business of executing
algorithms. If what peter forecasts actually occurs, his
systems will have him on the right side of the trade most of the
time -- better than 90%. If his forecast is wrong, his
systems will still be on the right aside of the trade most of the
time, even though his forecast will be wrong. If he never
wrote anything contrary to what the systems are doing he would
never be able to write a forecast or opinion, but could only say
where his systems are right at the moment. And also, some
will be long, some will be short at the same time depending on
time-frame.
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This site should have a
peter campbell says get out. we will see if he is right
Posted by vimal on 25th of Mar 2011 at 04:50 pm
This site should have a blogroll column on it. Seriously guys. I just mentioned this earlier today with respect to some guy saying the Dollar is dead. His track record from everything I have searched wasn't good and his the dollar is dead article was simply headline grabbing journalism. Surely you can all see that???
In terms of Peter, his systems are incredibly strong. Out of this world and better than anything I can or probably ever will be able to code. I get PFs 5-20. He gets north of 50 I think. Astronomical. So no doubting his record at objective system writing
In terms of his market calls, I recall 2 previous ones. One was predicting a c20% fall in Q4 2009 and the other was predicting a c20% fall again in Q4 2010. So from my perspective and unless anyone has any empirical evidence to the contrary, its something I wouldn't read anything into.
I stress.....his systems are second to none
vimal...his m3 switch is "green"....and
Posted by marketguy on 26th of Mar 2011 at 04:56 pm
vimal...his m3 switch is "green"....and he's predicting a "crash" early next week....what am I missing?
marketguy -- just to keep
Posted by Michael on 26th of Mar 2011 at 05:17 pm
marketguy -- just to keep things clear -- the daily M3 switch Matt shows is his own setting. It has nothing to do with Peter Campbell except that Peter coded the indicator. But he doesn't use or show that indicator with those settings on his blog. That's a BPT thing.
thanks vimal, then my question is why does he write stuff that seems contrary to what his systems are doing
Posted by rikkwan on 25th of Mar 2011 at 05:07 pm
is this a personal crusade of his or what?
he probably has a timeshare
Posted by vimal on 25th of Mar 2011 at 05:22 pm
he probably has a timeshare in Libya thats just gone belly up so hes a bit cheesed off
Only joking. Sure its not a personal crusade. Just his opinion/thoughts. Overall he is a great guy.
Right, I am off for a beer or 6
thats a fair question and
Posted by vimal on 25th of Mar 2011 at 05:20 pm
thats a fair question and i have no idea. But you must remember. His systems are swing trading systems which from memory have a trade lasting 1-7days. Something like that. These end of the world or catastrophe or mini crash or major correction calls are several weeks or 2-3month calls. The 2 are different
Think Michael sums up his systems well. They are not correlated or related to his personal opinion.
vimal -- Peter has systems
Posted by Michael on 25th of Mar 2011 at 05:24 pm
vimal -- Peter has systems running on daily/weekly time frames, down to minute time frames. So its all very hedged. While a longer term system could be short and having a drawdown, shorter term systems can be making money on the long side, etc.
Peter in his writing is
Posted by Michael on 25th of Mar 2011 at 05:18 pm
Peter in his writing is offering his general analysis, thoughts and opinion about the markets. But he never says "go short tomorrow" or "go long tomorrow". Because he's not trading forecasts and opinions, even his own. Meanwhile his systems are not forecasting anything and not thinking anything -- they are just going about the business of executing algorithms. If what peter forecasts actually occurs, his systems will have him on the right side of the trade most of the time -- better than 90%. If his forecast is wrong, his systems will still be on the right aside of the trade most of the time, even though his forecast will be wrong. If he never wrote anything contrary to what the systems are doing he would never be able to write a forecast or opinion, but could only say where his systems are right at the moment. And also, some will be long, some will be short at the same time depending on time-frame.