Regarding the market statistics for the 1st day of the month,
producing the majority of the market gains since Jan 2010; member
seadelight was kind enough to do some extra detective work into the
2nd and 3rd day, here's his results.
By: seadelight
Hi Matt,
I looked into the benefits of buying on the last trading day of
the month and then selling on the first, second, and third trading
day following using the SPY. Very interesting. I found
that if you sell on the third day it is significantly better than
the other two. Using SPY from 12/31/09 through
11/30/10 as a one year example, if you bought and held during
that period your return was 6.2% if sold on 11/30/10. Selling
on the first returned 11.86%, the second 15.75%, and the third
20.64%.
My cost basis for the percentages gained was an average of the
price of SPY on the first of each month.
LOL well that's only from 2009, the way those stats work, they
will work for a certain period of time, and then stop working.
QE and Big Ben has been pretty active during this time too,
so that might be a factor
someone should do a study on the 1st day of the month going back
10 years, then 20 years, and back to the 50's etc
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Posted by matt on 1st of Feb 2011 at 06:59 pm
Regarding the market statistics for the 1st day of the month, producing the majority of the market gains since Jan 2010; member seadelight was kind enough to do some extra detective work into the 2nd and 3rd day, here's his results.
By: seadelight
Hi Matt,
I looked into the benefits of buying on the last trading day of the month and then selling on the first, second, and third trading day following using the SPY. Very interesting. I found that if you sell on the third day it is significantly better than the other two. Using SPY from 12/31/09 through 11/30/10 as a one year example, if you bought and held during that period your return was 6.2% if sold on 11/30/10. Selling on the first returned 11.86%, the second 15.75%, and the third 20.64%.
My cost basis for the percentages gained was an average of the price of SPY on the first of each month.
Thanks- I'm interested and taking notes for next month.
Posted by snowcrow on 1st of Feb 2011 at 08:15 pm
Thank you for sharing. That
Posted by frtaylor on 1st of Feb 2011 at 07:02 pm
Thank you for sharing. That is a veryinteresting statistic! Sounds like we need a new mechanical system.
LOL well that's only from
Posted by matt on 1st of Feb 2011 at 07:20 pm
LOL well that's only from 2009, the way those stats work, they will work for a certain period of time, and then stop working. QE and Big Ben has been pretty active during this time too, so that might be a factor
someone should do a study on the 1st day of the month going back 10 years, then 20 years, and back to the 50's etc