yep that's how it goes. anyway I hope you've been playing
other longs as well to offset your index shorts.
Inverse ETF's on the market are and have been considered
aggressive trade ideas until the market actually begins a
downtrend. Not something to put your whole portfolio in, only
a small amount as hedges to existing longs or if you wanted to take
a shot at a market top, but realizing that picking tops is like
this.
Depending on your objective, the trades were profitable, or you
may have chosen to give them room for a swing trade and potential
market top, which in that case you would be down, but that's how it
goes trying to trade market inflection points. Having
those inverse ETF's coming into today was fine if you were a swing
trading willing to give them some room and willing to take a loss,
just have a stop in
place, if you don't have a stop, then that's a problem.
No, I had stops, in these cases, pretty wide (previous highs,
etc.), trying to swing these to no avail. With all the "warning
signs" and trying to be cautious about going long, I didn't have
any longs. But the shorts were only about 15% of my entire
portfolio. This is a VERY hard game to play....
Let me clarify that, It's very hard to pick tops. It's
better to let the market top pass you by in the rear view mirror
and then short an oversold bounce. Or short resistance with a
tight stop.
But as far as playing the market, it's best to trade 80% of the
trending move and let the top and bottom pickers try to catch the
top and bottom and the 20%, 10% around the inflections
The inverse ETF's I put out there were objective trade ideas but
very aggressive and honestly better as hedges against existing
longs
in the future I may not put those index ETF's ideas out and let
the market first form a clear market top with the trend change.
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indigestion
Posted by frtaylor on 1st of Feb 2011 at 12:52 pm
Just got back from lunch.
SH - ouch! stopped
EUO - ouch! stopped
SMN - ouch! stopped
TZA - ouch! stopped
ZSL - ouch! stopped
yep that's how it goes.
Posted by matt on 1st of Feb 2011 at 01:02 pm
yep that's how it goes. anyway I hope you've been playing other longs as well to offset your index shorts.
Inverse ETF's on the market are and have been considered aggressive trade ideas until the market actually begins a downtrend. Not something to put your whole portfolio in, only a small amount as hedges to existing longs or if you wanted to take a shot at a market top, but realizing that picking tops is like this.
Depending on your objective, the trades were profitable, or you may have chosen to give them room for a swing trade and potential market top, which in that case you would be down, but that's how it goes trying to trade market inflection points. Having those inverse ETF's coming into today was fine if you were a swing trading willing to give them some room and willing to take a loss, just have a stop in place, if you don't have a stop, then that's a problem.
No, I had stops, in
Posted by frtaylor on 1st of Feb 2011 at 01:07 pm
No, I had stops, in these cases, pretty wide (previous highs, etc.), trying to swing these to no avail. With all the "warning signs" and trying to be cautious about going long, I didn't have any longs. But the shorts were only about 15% of my entire portfolio. This is a VERY hard game to play....
Let me clarify that, It's
Posted by matt on 1st of Feb 2011 at 01:13 pm
Let me clarify that, It's very hard to pick tops. It's better to let the market top pass you by in the rear view mirror and then short an oversold bounce. Or short resistance with a tight stop.
But as far as playing the market, it's best to trade 80% of the trending move and let the top and bottom pickers try to catch the top and bottom and the 20%, 10% around the inflections
The inverse ETF's I put out there were objective trade ideas but very aggressive and honestly better as hedges against existing longs
in the future I may not put those index ETF's ideas out and let the market first form a clear market top with the trend change.