thanks for the post Steve. BTW, the neg divergence in the weekly
NYSE A/D was a great indicator of a failing breakout in Oct
2007.......that showed the weak Dec 2007 rally to be a retest of
the high and the last great exit point.
Note there were no divergences since the 2009 low, not even at
the April 2010 high.
So it's definitely one of the better indicators of the major
trend, even if non-operating companies are included. Does anyone
have a source for the S&P 500 A/D? That would be
purer....
Steve101 - this is what I was alluding to on Tuesday Night in my
summary. The technicals are sending WARNING signs. I will show
again tonight. The SPX may get a pop to complete the
structure followed by a drop but overall the SPX is nearing
objective targets and the divergences are mounting. Picking
an exact top is never easy but I personally remain
grounded.
NYSI Weekly summation index is about to turn bullish with macd
on SPX currently indicating bullish posture on Equities. Do you
think after the 50 to 75-point flush to relieve the overbought and
sentiment indicators, the market will continue a good 3-month rally
in the next year?
coolhat - First, the current trend is up and that has to
be respected until it changes. With that said, the SPX is nearing
some objective targets with some noticeable divergences building.
Should the divergence kick in, we will simply have to see the
nature and extent of the pullback before determining what is likely
to follow.
Posted by marketguy on 10th of Dec 2010 at 07:28 am
wish I could say the same....good thing there are no tall
bridges around here (east coast of FL)....
not saying this is you Steve (more like Cobra last night), but
if I hear "
one more push up"
I'm going to puke (as it NEVER turns out to be just "ONE")....
Carl Futia
Posted by steve101 on 9th of Dec 2010 at 05:41 pm
POSTED BY CARL FUTIA AT 11:10 AM permalink 0 COMMENTS
a 50-75 point drop is imminent
Here are two charts which are conveying an important message. The bottom chart shows the cumulative total of the difference between the number of advancing and the number of declining issues traded on the New York Stock Exchange each day. The top chart shows my favorite oscillator, the 10 day moving average of advancing issues.
Both these indicators warn of impending weakness in the averages. The cumulative advance-decline line is still visibly below its November 8 top while the S&P 500 is visibly above that same top. This is a real change in behavior because the advance-decline line has generally been much stronger than the averages during the past 18 months. This bearish divergence between the AD line and the S&P tells me that the market will soon drop 50-75 points before the bull market can resume.
The top chart of the 10 day moving average of advancing issues shows a series of bearish divergences going back to early September. This is again a bearish message.
Normally, divergences like these don't worry me too much. But the market is trading near 1250 resistance (the March 2008 low on the Bear Stearns failure) and has advanced with little corrective activity for nearly 4 months to a new bull market high.
All in all I think we shall see a 50-75 point drop before the S&P can move much if at all above 1250.
thanks for the post Steve.
Posted by PA on 10th of Dec 2010 at 12:51 pm
thanks for the post Steve. BTW, the neg divergence in the weekly NYSE A/D was a great indicator of a failing breakout in Oct 2007.......that showed the weak Dec 2007 rally to be a retest of the high and the last great exit point.
Note there were no divergences since the 2009 low, not even at the April 2010 high.
So it's definitely one of the better indicators of the major trend, even if non-operating companies are included. Does anyone have a source for the S&P 500 A/D? That would be purer....
Steve101 - this is what
Posted by steve on 9th of Dec 2010 at 07:32 pm
Steve101 - this is what I was alluding to on Tuesday Night in my summary. The technicals are sending WARNING signs. I will show again tonight. The SPX may get a pop to complete the structure followed by a drop but overall the SPX is nearing objective targets and the divergences are mounting. Picking an exact top is never easy but I personally remain grounded.
NYSI Weekly summation index is
Posted by coolhat on 10th of Dec 2010 at 08:53 am
NYSI Weekly summation index is about to turn bullish with macd on SPX currently indicating bullish posture on Equities. Do you think after the 50 to 75-point flush to relieve the overbought and sentiment indicators, the market will continue a good 3-month rally in the next year?
coolhat - First, the current
Posted by steve on 10th of Dec 2010 at 09:02 am
coolhat - First, the current trend is up and that has to be respected until it changes. With that said, the SPX is nearing some objective targets with some noticeable divergences building. Should the divergence kick in, we will simply have to see the nature and extent of the pullback before determining what is likely to follow.
wish I could say the
Posted by marketguy on 10th of Dec 2010 at 07:28 am
wish I could say the same....good thing there are no tall bridges around here (east coast of FL)....
not saying this is you Steve (more like Cobra last night), but if I hear " one more push up" I'm going to puke (as it NEVER turns out to be just "ONE")....
btw...Happy B-Day!
Thanks, Steve. Do you know
Posted by algyros on 9th of Dec 2010 at 06:34 pm
Thanks, Steve. Do you know anything about Futia's track record?
Algyros, He makes his living trading
Posted by steve101 on 9th of Dec 2010 at 06:57 pm
Algyros,
He makes his living trading the emini's, and he's been at it for awhile. Not perfect, but worth paying attention too.