I am confused by the GDX system.
I understand that it is a ‘work in progress’,
and that ‘there are no guarantees’ etc., but why was I not notified
when the last short position was cancelled?
I did not get an email or text message.
However, looking at posts during the trading
day, it was clear that the short position had ended, although I
understand that there was a question as to whether or not to go
long.
The web site for this system says that we will
be notified by email and text message, not that we might be.
I count on this.
Also, this is not the first time that no message
was sent
at a switch.
Also, looking at the summary of profits and
losses I don’t see the last short position, which resulted in an
approximately 6% loss.
Why is it not on the list?
soloff - as I said
in my Friday email and on Saturday in my reply to you on the blog,
I said not to fret about not shorting GDX on Friday because based
on the 60 min and 15 min charts of GDX, they looked like they would
at least bounce some.
This morning GDX was above Friday's close for 30 min and was 20
cents higher then Friday's close, so that was a shot if you wanted
to short GDX since you missed it on Friday.
Here's a 60 min chart of GDX, as you can see it stopped exactly
at the horizontal line I showed over the weekend in the commodity
newsletter. Otherwise based on the 60 period stochastics
being still being over 20%, there still may be a shot at higher
prices for GDX as long as the 60 period stochastics stays above 20%
and the market doesn't sell off or Dollar rally, we'll
see.
I covered this on the weekend, I had two sets of statistics in
the newsletter, the second set shows the -6.1% loss if you took the
short on Nov 16th via the crossover.
I added both statistics from the newsletter, you can see both
tables, the first how shows the -6% loss per taking the trade at
the crossover, while the second table does not show the 6% loss
because you short when BPGDM > 83.8%
However remember the new system parameters would cut out
that trade and so I don't show a 6% loss on the new statistics
because it is not part of the system and would make no sense to
show on the current GDX page because those are not actual trades,
those are statistics based on the system. I modified the
system back in the summer as well.
I can add the old statistics showing the statistics if one took
the trades via the crossovers, however that was covered in the
weekend.
Remember even under the old system parameters, the system was to
short when BPGDM was 83.5% or higher, that occurred on Nov 4th at a
price of 60 for GDX. The on Nov 16th the BPGDM crossed below
the 8 day MA, for those who shorted that time, you would have been
stopped out at 6% loss. However even under the old rules,
that was not part of the system.
I realize that some here were stopped out at 6% if they shorted
on Nov 16th and I realize that this doesn't take away your losses.
However the statistics page is not a list of the actual
trades, it is a list of the trades per the system.
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GDX Swing Trade System
Posted by soloff on 6th of Dec 2010 at 05:13 pm
I am confused by the GDX system. I understand that it is a ‘work in progress’, and that ‘there are no guarantees’ etc., but why was I not notified when the last short position was cancelled? I did not get an email or text message. However, looking at posts during the trading day, it was clear that the short position had ended, although I understand that there was a question as to whether or not to go long.
The web site for this system says that we will be notified by email and text message, not that we might be. I count on this. Also, this is not the first time that no message was sent
at a switch.
Also, looking at the summary of profits and losses I don’t see the last short position, which resulted in an approximately 6% loss. Why is it not on the list?
LSS
soloff - as I said in
Posted by matt on 20th of Dec 2010 at 10:35 am
soloff - as I said in my Friday email and on Saturday in my reply to you on the blog, I said not to fret about not shorting GDX on Friday because based on the 60 min and 15 min charts of GDX, they looked like they would at least bounce some.
This morning GDX was above Friday's close for 30 min and was 20 cents higher then Friday's close, so that was a shot if you wanted to short GDX since you missed it on Friday.
Here's a 60 min chart of GDX, as you can see it stopped exactly at the horizontal line I showed over the weekend in the commodity newsletter. Otherwise based on the 60 period stochastics being still being over 20%, there still may be a shot at higher prices for GDX as long as the 60 period stochastics stays above 20% and the market doesn't sell off or Dollar rally, we'll see.
Matt, can you put the link
Posted by lg on 20th of Dec 2010 at 10:41 am
Matt,
can you put the link for non stockcharts users
thxs
Title: click to expand I covered
Posted by matt on 6th of Dec 2010 at 05:29 pm
I covered this on the weekend, I had two sets of statistics in the newsletter, the second set shows the -6.1% loss if you took the short on Nov 16th via the crossover.
I added both statistics from the newsletter, you can see both tables, the first how shows the -6% loss per taking the trade at the crossover, while the second table does not show the 6% loss because you short when BPGDM > 83.8%
GDX newsletter
However remember the new system parameters would cut out that trade and so I don't show a 6% loss on the new statistics because it is not part of the system and would make no sense to show on the current GDX page because those are not actual trades, those are statistics based on the system. I modified the system back in the summer as well.
I can add the old statistics showing the statistics if one took the trades via the crossovers, however that was covered in the weekend.
Remember even under the old system parameters, the system was to short when BPGDM was 83.5% or higher, that occurred on Nov 4th at a price of 60 for GDX. The on Nov 16th the BPGDM crossed below the 8 day MA, for those who shorted that time, you would have been stopped out at 6% loss. However even under the old rules, that was not part of the system.
I realize that some here were stopped out at 6% if they shorted on Nov 16th and I realize that this doesn't take away your losses. However the statistics page is not a list of the actual trades, it is a list of the trades per the system.