For all you guys who always bash EW or think that all the Elliot
Wavers are all Bears, This guy Tony Caldaro is not, in fact I think
he went bullish in either June or July 2009 over a year gor.
He has this as a bull market since then
Here's an updated chart of the bullish Elliot Wave View that was
posted on Sept 28th. So far the drawn projection to the end
of year has played out, now whether that is wave 1 or not who
knows, but that would be the ultra bullish view.. It would
have a pullback coming very soon for a wave 2, but then after that
the bears would be crying.
Otherwise who knows, but my long term picture remains the same,
the market entered into a secular bear market in 2000 and is 10
years into it. Typically Secular markets last 15 - 18 years
or so, this means that the current secular bear won't be over for
many years yet.
The current rally from 2009 lows is a cyclical bull market
inside the long term secular bear, not a secular bull market.
Therefore I still see Trading as the way to make money for at
least the next 5 years. The time to buy and hold is in a
secular bull market. Secular Bear markets are for trading
Posted by eyeswideopen on 28th of Sep 2010 at 02:28 pm
my 2 cents...elliot waves are a waste of time for short and
intermediate traders...they are a hindsite indicater meaning you
explain them after thyey played out...lol
no way, I post the 5 min SPX here all the time, 100's of charts,
and it's very clear when it's had a 3rd wave move and is
consolidating into a 4th wave with another move higher coming.
You see it well before the 5th wave move develops.
again you guys just don't know how to use it, it's that simple,
don't bash it, I find it very useful on short term frames, even
trading futures on Tick charts. now I only use it if it's
clear and to me the MACD is very helpful because 5th waves always
have divergence, that's how you can tell. where people run
into trouble is when they only use it, however I have found it
works if you use it only when it's clear and always
in conjunction with other analysis like trendlines and
MACD, etc
let's get off this subject, post something useful instead of
bash bash
I think there must be a 1000 posts on BPT bashing EW, we don't
need any more, it's been covered
Posted by Palladin on 28th of Sep 2010 at 02:01 pm
It just serves to further invalidate EW as a practical theory.
Or maybe it fails mostly under extreme volatility and irregular
market conditions like we are experiencing lately.
At least most conventional analysts are in concordance with each
other, right or wrong.
IDK, just trade the charts and systems, ignore all that other
crap because you can't quantify it. I find that TA works just
fine, trading setups works just fine, systems continue to work.
As an example, I have been working on a mech system for the SPY
with another member that goes back to 1993, it worked in the dot
com bubble of the 90's bull market, it worked during the bear
market of 2000 - 2002, the bull market of 2003 - 2007, the bear
market of late 2007 - Mar 2009, and the current bull market from
2009 - present, (it's worked in all markets bull/bear) I don't see
any difference in performance between recent and in the past
not sure, maybe another month, 2 max, it's good now, but want to
improve it, still lots of tests to run to try and make it a little
better and filter out some bad trades.
Here's some stats, first three graphs show you the monthly
stats,time, and other stats, each trade is 100K only, no increase
over time.
the final chart is for fun, shows the system compounded i.e.
each trade profits is re-invested, 100K turns into $13 Mil, or 130
times since 1995
I find Tony Caldaro to be very interesting. Among the
reasons I like him is his willingness to admit he's been wrong and
to adapt to market conditions.
Yes he's good, now I will say that his short term calls are not
very good and it's hard to follow him otherwise for trading, but
some of his big picture stuff is interesting.
anyway I just wanted to point out that not all the EW guys are
ultra bears like Prechter.
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Elliot Wave Bull - they are not all bearish
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2010 at 01:52 pm
For all you guys who always bash EW or think that all the Elliot Wavers are all Bears, This guy Tony Caldaro is not, in fact I think he went bullish in either June or July 2009 over a year gor. He has this as a bull market since then
Here's his projection based on the waves
http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!D2CB8C5EBA2ADE86!84141.entry
Here's an updated chart of
Posted by matt on 13th of Dec 2010 at 10:59 pm
Here's an updated chart of the bullish Elliot Wave View that was posted on Sept 28th. So far the drawn projection to the end of year has played out, now whether that is wave 1 or not who knows, but that would be the ultra bullish view.. It would have a pullback coming very soon for a wave 2, but then after that the bears would be crying.
http://breakpointtrades.com/blog/post/125042/
Otherwise who knows, but my long term picture remains the same, the market entered into a secular bear market in 2000 and is 10 years into it. Typically Secular markets last 15 - 18 years or so, this means that the current secular bear won't be over for many years yet.
The current rally from 2009 lows is a cyclical bull market inside the long term secular bear, not a secular bull market. Therefore I still see Trading as the way to make money for at least the next 5 years. The time to buy and hold is in a secular bull market. Secular Bear markets are for trading
I could be wrong but that's my best guess
my 2 cents...elliot waves are
Posted by eyeswideopen on 28th of Sep 2010 at 02:28 pm
my 2 cents...elliot waves are a waste of time for short and intermediate traders...they are a hindsite indicater meaning you explain them after thyey played out...lol
Title: comments no way, I post
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2010 at 02:44 pm
no way, I post the 5 min SPX here all the time, 100's of charts, and it's very clear when it's had a 3rd wave move and is consolidating into a 4th wave with another move higher coming. You see it well before the 5th wave move develops.
again you guys just don't know how to use it, it's that simple, don't bash it, I find it very useful on short term frames, even trading futures on Tick charts. now I only use it if it's clear and to me the MACD is very helpful because 5th waves always have divergence, that's how you can tell. where people run into trouble is when they only use it, however I have found it works if you use it only when it's clear and always in conjunction with other analysis like trendlines and MACD, etc
let's get off this subject, post something useful instead of bash bash
I think there must be a 1000 posts on BPT bashing EW, we don't need any more, it's been covered
one should not discuss politics
Posted by Palladin on 28th of Sep 2010 at 02:48 pm
one should not discuss politics or religion OR EW in polite company.
It just serves to further
Posted by Palladin on 28th of Sep 2010 at 02:01 pm
It just serves to further invalidate EW as a practical theory. Or maybe it fails mostly under extreme volatility and irregular market conditions like we are experiencing lately.
At least most conventional analysts are in concordance with each other, right or wrong.
TA by definition can't factor in
Posted by hazbin1 on 28th of Sep 2010 at 02:10 pm
TA by definition can't factor in QE let alone QE2. which in itself is a put on all risk assets curtesy of the FED
IDK, just trade the charts
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2010 at 02:18 pm
IDK, just trade the charts and systems, ignore all that other crap because you can't quantify it. I find that TA works just fine, trading setups works just fine, systems continue to work.
As an example, I have been working on a mech system for the SPY with another member that goes back to 1993, it worked in the dot com bubble of the 90's bull market, it worked during the bear market of 2000 - 2002, the bull market of 2003 - 2007, the bear market of late 2007 - Mar 2009, and the current bull market from 2009 - present, (it's worked in all markets bull/bear) I don't see any difference in performance between recent and in the past
Any idea when your system
Posted by RM686 on 28th of Sep 2010 at 02:51 pm
Any idea when your system will be available?
not sure, maybe another month,
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2010 at 03:02 pm
not sure, maybe another month, 2 max, it's good now, but want to improve it, still lots of tests to run to try and make it a little better and filter out some bad trades.
Here's some stats, first three graphs show you the monthly stats,time, and other stats, each trade is 100K only, no increase over time.
the final chart is for fun, shows the system compounded i.e. each trade profits is re-invested, 100K turns into $13 Mil, or 130 times since 1995
Matt, I for 1 am
Posted by hazbin1 on 28th of Sep 2010 at 02:27 pm
Matt, I for 1 am ready for the spy system, I much rather have my computer do the trading than me.
Ditto. Indeed, that SPY system has
Posted by jimsava on 28th of Sep 2010 at 02:41 pm
Ditto.
Indeed, that SPY system has certainly perked my interest.
seems like we only hear from the bearish calls
Posted by vdonato on 28th of Sep 2010 at 02:01 pm
I find Tony Caldaro to
Posted by algyros on 28th of Sep 2010 at 01:57 pm
I find Tony Caldaro to be very interesting. Among the reasons I like him is his willingness to admit he's been wrong and to adapt to market conditions.
Yes he's good, now I
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2010 at 02:01 pm
Yes he's good, now I will say that his short term calls are not very good and it's hard to follow him otherwise for trading, but some of his big picture stuff is interesting.
anyway I just wanted to point out that not all the EW guys are ultra bears like Prechter.