There was a Poll up here until 6 months ago it showed 80
percent bears since the March 2009 lows. It would be great if Matt
and Steve would put it back up.
generally agree, there are a lot of people on the sidelines, at
least the average folk or masses, many seem to be out of the
market.
The market still has some similarities to the fall of 2004 where
it bottomed and began the next leg of its bull market, but we'll
see, a lot should be answered this year after the market breaks out
of its range
One thing I'm certain of, the market is in a secular bear market
than began in 2000, ending the Secular bull market from 1982 -
2000. The market trades in these long term secular cycles
lasting about 16 - 20 years or so, Secular Bull, Secular Bear.
The current secular bear market is 10 years into its cycle,
too short to end by historical standards, so maybe it lasts until
2017 or so. Remember that a secular bear market doesn't trend
down the whole time, generally they end where they begin, such as
the 1966 - 1982 secular bear market, the Dow was 1000 in 1966 and
got back to 1000 in 1982, so you went no where in 16 years but had
a lot of oscillating up and down moves within that time.
However secular bear markets have cycle bull markets inside of
them, the average lasting about 3 years or so. We are now 1.5
years into this cycle bull market inside the larger secular bear,
so by historical standards, it's a bit short time frame wise for a
cyclical bull which lasts 3 years on average with the shorter ones
lasting 2 years. Of course it does't mean that it can't end,
but it could also continue as well.
Again we'll see, just keep an open mind and react to the market.
The market could fall off a cliff like everyone says, or it
might now and could go up for another 6 months or year if it wanted
to. Don't be dead locked into a strong opinion that this or that
has to occur.
Posted by jaycrockett on 9th of Sep 2010 at 12:57 pm
Thanks for putting the market in perspective. Helps to see
the forest through the trees, as the expression goes. I am
printing this for future reference.
From what I've observed, most traders here play both sides of
the market. Also, when the longs start ribbing the shorts on the
blog, there is usually a pullback soon after. Just go back and
search the blog.
In the short term, the 5 min charts are flagging for a new high.
But it'll be a divergent high, so caution is warranted on new
longs, unless they're short term trades.
looking at the 'big' picture down to the smaller picture and
back out again, I have to say today looks like a wave 3 and 4 of a
wave 3 of 5 up....meaning we might still see another new high
followed by a pullback and one more wave 5 of 5 of 5 up.
I figure they can make higher highs and then trade sideways all
next week to crush the option players....max pain for SPY is still
105 for Sept. so a drop back to SPY 108 could still be in the works
next week, besides the market will need a correction of some sort
at some point.
Watch the $RUT for confirmation or lack thereof of continuing
strength.
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Is there anymore bears out there still?
Is there anymore bears out there still?
Posted by vdonato on 9th of Sep 2010 at 12:08 pm
LOL
YES
Posted by perthx on 9th of Sep 2010 at 12:12 pm
are there any more bulls they can fit into this big bull trap?
There are more Bears than bulls...
Posted by vdonato on 9th of Sep 2010 at 12:21 pm
Not good for bearishishnees if everyone, or most are loaded on this side of the boat...
There was a Poll up
Posted by searay on 9th of Sep 2010 at 12:19 pm
There was a Poll up here until 6 months ago it showed 80 percent bears since the March 2009 lows. It would be great if Matt and Steve would put it back up.
yeah I thought about it,
Posted by matt on 9th of Sep 2010 at 12:27 pm
yeah I thought about it, I may put the pull back up, though I would like to reset it say once every couple weeks or so, one a month maybe etc.
It doesn't have to be
Posted by 88888 on 9th of Sep 2010 at 12:16 pm
It doesn't have to be new longs; just more short covering will do it. The mkts pretty thinly traded; more are on the sideline.
generally agree, there are a
Posted by matt on 9th of Sep 2010 at 12:37 pm
generally agree, there are a lot of people on the sidelines, at least the average folk or masses, many seem to be out of the market.
The market still has some similarities to the fall of 2004 where it bottomed and began the next leg of its bull market, but we'll see, a lot should be answered this year after the market breaks out of its range
One thing I'm certain of, the market is in a secular bear market than began in 2000, ending the Secular bull market from 1982 - 2000. The market trades in these long term secular cycles lasting about 16 - 20 years or so, Secular Bull, Secular Bear. The current secular bear market is 10 years into its cycle, too short to end by historical standards, so maybe it lasts until 2017 or so. Remember that a secular bear market doesn't trend down the whole time, generally they end where they begin, such as the 1966 - 1982 secular bear market, the Dow was 1000 in 1966 and got back to 1000 in 1982, so you went no where in 16 years but had a lot of oscillating up and down moves within that time.
However secular bear markets have cycle bull markets inside of them, the average lasting about 3 years or so. We are now 1.5 years into this cycle bull market inside the larger secular bear, so by historical standards, it's a bit short time frame wise for a cyclical bull which lasts 3 years on average with the shorter ones lasting 2 years. Of course it does't mean that it can't end, but it could also continue as well.
Again we'll see, just keep an open mind and react to the market. The market could fall off a cliff like everyone says, or it might now and could go up for another 6 months or year if it wanted to. Don't be dead locked into a strong opinion that this or that has to occur.
secular markets
Posted by jaycrockett on 9th of Sep 2010 at 12:57 pm
Thanks for putting the market in perspective. Helps to see the forest through the trees, as the expression goes. I am printing this for future reference.
Thanks Matt, agree. Opinions or bias can get in the way of reacting..
Posted by vdonato on 9th of Sep 2010 at 12:40 pm
From what I've observed, most
Posted by cw12 on 9th of Sep 2010 at 12:31 pm
From what I've observed, most traders here play both sides of the market. Also, when the longs start ribbing the shorts on the blog, there is usually a pullback soon after. Just go back and search the blog.
In the short term, the 5 min charts are flagging for a new high. But it'll be a divergent high, so caution is warranted on new longs, unless they're short term trades.
waves a plenty
Posted by perthx on 9th of Sep 2010 at 12:39 pm
looking at the 'big' picture down to the smaller picture and back out again, I have to say today looks like a wave 3 and 4 of a wave 3 of 5 up....meaning we might still see another new high followed by a pullback and one more wave 5 of 5 of 5 up.
I figure they can make higher highs and then trade sideways all next week to crush the option players....max pain for SPY is still 105 for Sept. so a drop back to SPY 108 could still be in the works next week, besides the market will need a correction of some sort at some point.
Watch the $RUT for confirmation or lack thereof of continuing strength.