The currencies, Cable and Euro, have not followed SPX as
expected. However my long call on
SPX<br><br><br>(/ES futures) was spot
on. Not sure if it has more to
run.<br><br><br>My call on today's Jobs Report as
being "not as bad as expected" and a 1.5% rally today, was pretty
good.<br><br><br>It's time for a
weekend. From my point of view, it is quite obvious
that people are just getting more and more whacked out, completely
losing their senses. <br><br>It is very interesting to
observe this mass social psychosis, as an observer with "skin in
the game".<br><br>Astro was implying a SPX run to 1105,
and a blog reader emailed in this chart of the
Russell.<br><br><a
href="http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/09/bearish-hardly-cable-and-euro-have-legs.html"
rel="nofollow">http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/09/bearish-hardly-cable-and-euro-have-legs.html</a><br><br>The
overthrow looks perfect, the Astro is completed, but currencies
seems to still have legs.<br><br><br>Tim Knight
closed the last of his short positions yesterday....the perfect
wave 2, tiring out bears by time and price, with a final push up to
make even the most strident bear capitulate. PS holding
QID from 17.8, but now that my ES futures long "hedge" is gone, The
QID could stress me out if market continues higher next
week.<br>This is odd. <br><br>But here is the
scary part for bears...EWI released a new monthly Financial
forecast. Of course they are predicting imminent doom,
and we all know how the MM's HBB games EWI, ramping against their
calls to take money from the bears.<br><br>Think of it,
how many retail, buy and hold type, long only type, are still
playing this market after being whipsawed around for a whole
year. Almost none. The only source of fresh
money for HBB is to game the bears, who are committed as "smart
observers" who realize the horrific fundamentals that this country
and the whole world face.
From a currency perspective, yes this is true. Cable and Euro
have had a reasonable run against the $ but have struggled v CHF
& YEN. There is a big move to the safehavens of CHF & YEN
as carry trades
In terms of what bloggers etc say, I am not swayed either way by
this and dont read any of it ........but thats my approach!
Yen wise, this is the one that suprises me. I went long last
week and took 50pips profit today but was hoping for 100. It then
for some reason rallied sharply v the dollar even though the SPY
rallied which is very unusual so there has been some decoupling
Retail investors are still near record longs in YEN and whilst I
am not initiating a new trade (as its more disrectionary and I want
to avoid these types of trades), it seems ripe for a fall v USD .
So USDJPY should rally
Retail investors near record longs, positive divergence on the
dailies and there seems to be an 89day or so cycle in USDJPY that
kicks in around 3rd/4th Sept which in theory should be a cycle
low
Right . Good week and time to enjoy the weekend
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The currencies, Cable and Euro,
Posted by steveo on 3rd of Sep 2010 at 04:54 pm
The currencies, Cable and Euro, have not followed SPX as expected. However my long call on SPX<br><br><br>(/ES futures) was spot on. Not sure if it has more to run.<br><br><br>My call on today's Jobs Report as being "not as bad as expected" and a 1.5% rally today, was pretty good.<br><br><br>It's time for a weekend. From my point of view, it is quite obvious that people are just getting more and more whacked out, completely losing their senses. <br><br>It is very interesting to observe this mass social psychosis, as an observer with "skin in the game".<br><br>Astro was implying a SPX run to 1105, and a blog reader emailed in this chart of the Russell.<br><br><a href="http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/09/bearish-hardly-cable-and-euro-have-legs.html" rel="nofollow">http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/09/bearish-hardly-cable-and-euro-have-legs.html</a><br><br>The overthrow looks perfect, the Astro is completed, but currencies seems to still have legs.<br><br><br>Tim Knight closed the last of his short positions yesterday....the perfect wave 2, tiring out bears by time and price, with a final push up to make even the most strident bear capitulate. PS holding QID from 17.8, but now that my ES futures long "hedge" is gone, The QID could stress me out if market continues higher next week.<br>This is odd. <br><br>But here is the scary part for bears...EWI released a new monthly Financial forecast. Of course they are predicting imminent doom, and we all know how the MM's HBB games EWI, ramping against their calls to take money from the bears.<br><br>Think of it, how many retail, buy and hold type, long only type, are still playing this market after being whipsawed around for a whole year. Almost none. The only source of fresh money for HBB is to game the bears, who are committed as "smart observers" who realize the horrific fundamentals that this country and the whole world face.
From a currency perspective, yes
Posted by vimal on 3rd of Sep 2010 at 05:16 pm
From a currency perspective, yes this is true. Cable and Euro have had a reasonable run against the $ but have struggled v CHF & YEN. There is a big move to the safehavens of CHF & YEN as carry trades
In terms of what bloggers etc say, I am not swayed either way by this and dont read any of it ........but thats my approach!
Yen wise, this is the one that suprises me. I went long last week and took 50pips profit today but was hoping for 100. It then for some reason rallied sharply v the dollar even though the SPY rallied which is very unusual so there has been some decoupling
Retail investors are still near record longs in YEN and whilst I am not initiating a new trade (as its more disrectionary and I want to avoid these types of trades), it seems ripe for a fall v USD . So USDJPY should rally
Retail investors near record longs, positive divergence on the dailies and there seems to be an 89day or so cycle in USDJPY that kicks in around 3rd/4th Sept which in theory should be a cycle low
Right . Good week and time to enjoy the weekend