Banks are down almost 3%. FRE and
FNM are getting clobbered. Word is if the gov't takes them over,
they'll be worthless to shareholders - the stocks will literally be
worth 0...all paid for by the good ol American tax payer.
So just speculating but if that's half the mortage market, and
the US housing market is really the lynchpin of the global economy,
and they will bail it out, isn't that your crash catalyst right
there?
Hardly inpiration for a rally.
So should be be piling in short again? Opinions Matt,
anyone?
The spike up started right when margins go up on futures...on
IB, at least.....Matt do you think it was short
covering?.......PPT?
crazy crazy mkt right now..........hope it's a sign of a
bottom
kreem- short term traders could short or do what ever they want,
dodger said that if the SPX
lost 1235that aggressive traders could short, and
the SPX lost 1235 today.
HOWEVER, our #1 goal is to keep
people out of trouble. We more members who work day jobs and who
can't follow the market every tick then we have day traders who
can. Thus we tend to approach most of our analysis with a swing
trade mentality; It would not be prudent for us to suggest swing
trade shorts at this time even though the market could fall lower.
For those who are short they should stay short, but now is not the
time to be entering swing trade shorts that someone who is busy
throught the day could get caught in if the market capitulated and
then rallied hard.
If you are already short, then
super, stay short.
If you are a day trader or very
nimble trader, then short if you wish
If you are a swing trader or
position trader and you are not currently short, now is not the
time to short.
Banks are down almost 3%.
Posted by matt on 11th of Jul 2008 at 12:36 pm
Banks are down almost 3%. FRE and FNM are getting clobbered. Word is if the gov't takes them over, they'll be worthless to shareholders - the stocks will literally be worth 0...all paid for by the good ol American tax payer.
So just speculating but if
Posted by kreem on 11th of Jul 2008 at 12:49 pm
So just speculating but if that's half the mortage market, and the US housing market is really the lynchpin of the global economy, and they will bail it out, isn't that your crash catalyst right there?
Hardly inpiration for a rally.
So should be be piling in short again? Opinions Matt, anyone?
kreem this is why I
Posted by matt on 11th of Jul 2008 at 02:50 pm
kreem this is why I did not want to short, every thing's news driven right now and emotion.
Market is taking off right now for some reason.
short covering?
Posted by lpant on 11th of Jul 2008 at 02:55 pm
The spike up started right when margins go up on futures...on IB, at least.....Matt do you think it was short covering?.......PPT? crazy crazy mkt right now..........hope it's a sign of a bottom
got ya, what is this
Posted by kreem on 11th of Jul 2008 at 02:53 pm
got ya, what is this crazy ass spike - did God speak?
Uncle Ben opening disount window
Posted by bkout3 on 11th of Jul 2008 at 02:55 pm
Uncle Ben opening disount window to Freddie & Fannie
BTW sold UYG on spike
Please explain 'discount window' - Does
Posted by kreem on 11th of Jul 2008 at 03:23 pm
Please explain 'discount window' -
Does that make this Fannie etc situation a good thing?!!!
Short term loans from the
Posted by bkout3 on 11th of Jul 2008 at 03:31 pm
Short term loans from the Fed -- usually just used by banks.
Seems to me like it would increase liquidity for themso a good thing.
CNBC now saying this may be a rumor -- not confirmed
Just another way for the
Posted by rgoodwin on 11th of Jul 2008 at 02:59 pm
Just another way for the taxpayers to bail them out.
kreem - short term traders could
Posted by matt on 11th of Jul 2008 at 01:05 pm
kreem - short term traders could short or do what ever they want, dodger said that if the SPX lost 1235that aggressive traders could short, and the SPX lost 1235 today.
HOWEVER, our #1 goal is to keep people out of trouble. We more members who work day jobs and who can't follow the market every tick then we have day traders who can. Thus we tend to approach most of our analysis with a swing trade mentality; It would not be prudent for us to suggest swing trade shorts at this time even though the market could fall lower. For those who are short they should stay short, but now is not the time to be entering swing trade shorts that someone who is busy throught the day could get caught in if the market capitulated and then rallied hard.
If you are already short, then super, stay short.
If you are a day trader or very nimble trader, then short if you wish
If you are a swing trader or position trader and you are not currently short, now is not the time to short.
Banks FNM FRE
Posted by rgoodwin on 11th of Jul 2008 at 12:38 pm
And lord knows the government is not going to tell us ahead of time they are taking them over - they'll do it over the weekend like they did with Bear
Puts
Posted by lawyse on 11th of Jul 2008 at 12:44 pm
For those who think the government will take them over before August 15
Buy FNM AUG $5 Put for $1.30
If it happens, for example, and you have ten contracts you profit $3,700, with a maximum loss of $1,300 if you are wrong.