Is it just me, or does 90% of all people out there think that
the market is going to crash this fall? Seems like everyone thinks
that the market "has" to crash soon, citing all kinds of
fundamentals. (As usual, BPT remains fairly objective on that
topic). While I understand the fundamentals, I'm generally
skeptical when there's a general consensus that we're headed in one
direction. What have you guys been noticing?
Yes the HO is everywhere. It was interesting that Richard
Russell in one of his recent notes happened to state he felt this
signal could be one of the more least effective ones because of the
popularity. I generally tend to agree. When something
has been working it generally needs to go through a rough patch
before it can work again especially when many people are on
board. What is then funny is Russell, after stating the HO
will not likely pan out, reiterates how he would only hold Gold,
the market will likely be crushed, quotes Joe Granville who is
looking for us to break the March Lows and lastly quotes how with
the Dow dividend at 2.7% is too low. Gotta love
Russell.
I don't follow the business news or blogrolls. Simple way to
avoid this trap. Bad news/predictions of gloom and doom make better
reading than the rosy garden scenario
For what its worth, I went long yesterday when the S&Ps were
down a couple of ticks for a swing trade using a 60min system. We
will see what happens over the coming days but hopeful
of scalping 10-15S&P points
I follow the charts, several good strategies and also
where the clever money is going. Thats about it!
I think the 90% number was an arbitrary number used to make the
point that most everyone is calling for severe pull back this
fall. I tend to agree with User32...the bearish tone out
there is overwhelming, yet most of my indicators still call for
good long exposure. I love it when all are bearish....it
means we are going higher. Remember, there is a reason why
they call the market - The Great Humiliator.
Thanks for the comments, guys. And my 90% of people being
bearish was arbitrary (although I could have used 99.99% for
comedic effect, and perhaps even greater accuracy. I think the
video of Tony Robbins' plea to sell the market before the next big
drop might have been the clincher though). Let's see what happens
this fall. I wouldn't be surprised either way, although I really
wouldn't be surprised to see the market rally huge into the fall. I
realize I'm taking the easy argument here, since the more people
who object, the greater my chances of being right! :)
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Is it just me, or
Posted by user32 on 17th of Aug 2010 at 03:00 am
Is it just me, or does 90% of all people out there think that the market is going to crash this fall? Seems like everyone thinks that the market "has" to crash soon, citing all kinds of fundamentals. (As usual, BPT remains fairly objective on that topic). While I understand the fundamentals, I'm generally skeptical when there's a general consensus that we're headed in one direction. What have you guys been noticing?
90%....????
Posted by perthx on 17th of Aug 2010 at 09:19 am
funny but the bearish % is still way way low.....
Not sure if it's 90%,
Posted by steever on 17th of Aug 2010 at 08:46 am
Not sure if it's 90%, but talk of the Hindenberg Omen has definitely made it to the main stream media.
HO everywhere
Posted by tom on 17th of Aug 2010 at 09:12 am
Yes the HO is everywhere. It was interesting that Richard Russell in one of his recent notes happened to state he felt this signal could be one of the more least effective ones because of the popularity. I generally tend to agree. When something has been working it generally needs to go through a rough patch before it can work again especially when many people are on board. What is then funny is Russell, after stating the HO will not likely pan out, reiterates how he would only hold Gold, the market will likely be crushed, quotes Joe Granville who is looking for us to break the March Lows and lastly quotes how with the Dow dividend at 2.7% is too low. Gotta love Russell.
Tom, I think it was
Posted by ditch on 17th of Aug 2010 at 09:17 am
Tom, I think it was Art Cashin that said; "just when you find the key to wall street, they change the locks".....
Also, "when everybody knows something, it's not worth knowing".
I don't follow the business
Posted by vimal on 17th of Aug 2010 at 03:25 am
I don't follow the business news or blogrolls. Simple way to avoid this trap. Bad news/predictions of gloom and doom make better reading than the rosy garden scenario
For what its worth, I went long yesterday when the S&Ps were down a couple of ticks for a swing trade using a 60min system. We will see what happens over the coming days but hopeful of scalping 10-15S&P points
I follow the charts, several good strategies and also where the clever money is going. Thats about it!
Enjoy the day!!
How did you come out
Posted by 88888 on 17th of Aug 2010 at 03:21 am
How did you come out with 90% ?
I think the 90% number
Posted by gateway on 17th of Aug 2010 at 09:38 am
I think the 90% number was an arbitrary number used to make the point that most everyone is calling for severe pull back this fall. I tend to agree with User32...the bearish tone out there is overwhelming, yet most of my indicators still call for good long exposure. I love it when all are bearish....it means we are going higher. Remember, there is a reason why they call the market - The Great Humiliator.
Thanks for the comments, guys.
Posted by user32 on 17th of Aug 2010 at 11:29 am
Thanks for the comments, guys. And my 90% of people being bearish was arbitrary (although I could have used 99.99% for comedic effect, and perhaps even greater accuracy. I think the video of Tony Robbins' plea to sell the market before the next big drop might have been the clincher though). Let's see what happens this fall. I wouldn't be surprised either way, although I really wouldn't be surprised to see the market rally huge into the fall. I realize I'm taking the easy argument here, since the more people who object, the greater my chances of being right! :)