And in looking at the month bond futures, i see two perfect
Railroad Track reversal patterns which I have highlighted in yellow
and you can see that they did play out. This is a great predictor
pattern that will make you money, it simple show price rejection
and reversal.
Posted by ducksoup on 14th of Aug 2010 at 01:36 am
this is going to be a very interesting area for bonds -TLT
strong long term resistance area at 102-104 from Feb-March 2009
(red Line)
MACD has well established divergence...looks like TLT could make
another divergent high soon...the last divergent cycle took about 3
months to play out from January through March - this divergence
began late May, if it takes a similiar time frame to play out that
takes us to late August.
TLT closed above it's bolinger band on the daily chart today -
this has lead to reversals within a few days the last 3 times from
May through July
I took a position short bonds via TBT at the close today, will
give it about 3% to play out or not....would someone please remind
me to wait for the trend to turn before jumping in! Just hard
to resist taking a shot.
Your chart of TLT clearly shows the price congestion of Feb
and Mar '09 overhead, but my chart shows that the price of TLT has
cleared that hurdle. Am I not seeing something?
Posted by ducksoup on 14th of Aug 2010 at 02:44 pm
very interesting - I checked the historical data on yahoo
finance, and it appears the data from freestockcharts.com is based
on the actual numbers,not adjusted for dividends. It appears
that the data on sharpcharts is adjusted for dividends.
Makes a huge difference in how you interpret the area of resistance
- would appreciate comments from any members on this.
ducksoup . . . Thanks for pointing out the difference in the
charts. That's news to me--I was unaware that an adjustment
was being made. The GoogleFinance charts are also adjusted
like the SharpCharts. I guess they do that because the
30-cent dividend paid out every month is reducing the value of the
company as you go back in time. Or is it?
For the last ten trading days in the TLT charts (FreeStockCharts
vs. SharpCharts) there is very little adjustment. When you
get back to Feb '09 the difference is more that $5. That could make
a difference in how one interprets a chart.
Is the current-day trading price for TLT always the same or very
close in both charts? Are the historical prices in the
SharpChart constantly being adjusted as the company pays out more
money through dividends? What is happening here? How
should one think about this?
Posted by ducksoup on 15th of Aug 2010 at 01:02 am
to analyze trends and potential support/resistance in the 30 yr
treasury bond price/interest rates you can just use the tyx 30 yr
bond yield for analysis, then play the trend with either TLT or
TBT
When you look at historical values for tyx, at least your are
comparing apples to apples
I was surprised at the difference in data between services,
would have assumed they all use the same numbers
Posted by mamaduck on 14th of Aug 2010 at 02:29 am
Ducksoup, you may be onto something big here... Have a look at
these charts, but I also present one opposite case too which will
see TBT go below 32...
Posted by ducksoup on 14th of Aug 2010 at 11:12 am
Mamaduck, thanks for the great charts. I am probably early
on this (as usual) so will keep my stops tight - TBT may very well
have more downside, but I think there is a nice trade developing
here. I don't want to think about what will happen if there is not
a good trade here, as that will mean we are headed to the
deflationary abyss.
The scariest charts you show are the longer term views of TBT,
which appear to be descending triangles...would like your opinion
on this....I don't use longer term charts on leveraged ETFs because
price levels are subject to so much decay vs. the underlying
asset. TBT has lost about 35% of its value relative to the
underlying asset (compare to TYX) since the December 2008 lows -
about 1.5% per month! Since most traders are probably not holding
leveraged ETFs more than a couple months, that's the time frame I
think the charts for TBT are useful.
The last time I can remember the media and general feeling about
the market being this negative was in early July, so perhaps this
is close to an intermediate bottom. Could be wishful
thinking, time will tell.
Posted by mamaduck on 14th of Aug 2010 at 06:24 pm
Ducksoup, you have a very good point about leveraged ETF
decay... So I took your advice and looked at TYX. The conclusion is
very similar, though this one is more of a wait another day or two
to see what happens...
Posted by ducksoup on 14th of Aug 2010 at 07:18 pm
thanks, wish I had seen these charts on Friday before I made a
move ... it really does look like tyx needs another move down to
complete the next divergent low, and the resistance from Feb-March
should kick in not too much further down, but best to wait and see
as you say
Oh well, will keep the stops tight and take my medicine to live
another day if necessary....
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TLT breakout
Posted by ditch on 13th of Aug 2010 at 03:53 pm
The TLT etf is trying to breakout, this is bearish.
And in looking at the month bond futures, i see two perfect Railroad Track reversal patterns which I have highlighted in yellow and you can see that they did play out. This is a great predictor pattern that will make you money, it simple show price rejection and reversal.
critical level for bonds
Posted by ducksoup on 14th of Aug 2010 at 01:36 am
this is going to be a very interesting area for bonds -TLT
strong long term resistance area at 102-104 from Feb-March 2009 (red Line)
MACD has well established divergence...looks like TLT could make another divergent high soon...the last divergent cycle took about 3 months to play out from January through March - this divergence began late May, if it takes a similiar time frame to play out that takes us to late August.
TLT closed above it's bolinger band on the daily chart today - this has lead to reversals within a few days the last 3 times from May through July
I took a position short bonds via TBT at the close today, will give it about 3% to play out or not....would someone please remind me to wait for the trend to turn before jumping in! Just hard to resist taking a shot.
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http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=fdf01f14-0b8f-4261-a87d-0bd5581fb424
Title: TLT FreeStockChart Correct? Your chart
Posted by tradequick on 14th of Aug 2010 at 01:45 pm
Your chart of TLT clearly shows the price congestion of Feb and Mar '09 overhead, but my chart shows that the price of TLT has cleared that hurdle. Am I not seeing something?
My chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p62779912587&a=206360844&listNum=2
data discrepancy
Posted by ducksoup on 14th of Aug 2010 at 02:44 pm
very interesting - I checked the historical data on yahoo finance, and it appears the data from freestockcharts.com is based on the actual numbers,not adjusted for dividends. It appears that the data on sharpcharts is adjusted for dividends. Makes a huge difference in how you interpret the area of resistance - would appreciate comments from any members on this.
Title: Big difference in FreeStockCharts
Posted by tradequick on 14th of Aug 2010 at 11:07 pm
ducksoup . . . Thanks for pointing out the difference in the charts. That's news to me--I was unaware that an adjustment was being made. The GoogleFinance charts are also adjusted like the SharpCharts. I guess they do that because the 30-cent dividend paid out every month is reducing the value of the company as you go back in time. Or is it?
For the last ten trading days in the TLT charts (FreeStockCharts vs. SharpCharts) there is very little adjustment. When you get back to Feb '09 the difference is more that $5. That could make a difference in how one interprets a chart.
Is the current-day trading price for TLT always the same or very close in both charts? Are the historical prices in the SharpChart constantly being adjusted as the company pays out more money through dividends? What is happening here? How should one think about this?
to analyze trends and potential
Posted by ducksoup on 15th of Aug 2010 at 01:02 am
to analyze trends and potential support/resistance in the 30 yr treasury bond price/interest rates you can just use the tyx 30 yr bond yield for analysis, then play the trend with either TLT or TBT
When you look at historical values for tyx, at least your are comparing apples to apples
I was surprised at the difference in data between services, would have assumed they all use the same numbers
Bonds
Posted by mamaduck on 14th of Aug 2010 at 02:29 am
Ducksoup, you may be onto something big here... Have a look at these charts, but I also present one opposite case too which will see TBT go below 32...
Bonds
Posted by ducksoup on 14th of Aug 2010 at 11:12 am
Mamaduck, thanks for the great charts. I am probably early on this (as usual) so will keep my stops tight - TBT may very well have more downside, but I think there is a nice trade developing here. I don't want to think about what will happen if there is not a good trade here, as that will mean we are headed to the deflationary abyss.
The scariest charts you show are the longer term views of TBT, which appear to be descending triangles...would like your opinion on this....I don't use longer term charts on leveraged ETFs because price levels are subject to so much decay vs. the underlying asset. TBT has lost about 35% of its value relative to the underlying asset (compare to TYX) since the December 2008 lows - about 1.5% per month! Since most traders are probably not holding leveraged ETFs more than a couple months, that's the time frame I think the charts for TBT are useful.
The last time I can remember the media and general feeling about the market being this negative was in early July, so perhaps this is close to an intermediate bottom. Could be wishful thinking, time will tell.
Bonds
Posted by mamaduck on 14th of Aug 2010 at 06:24 pm
Ducksoup, you have a very good point about leveraged ETF decay... So I took your advice and looked at TYX. The conclusion is very similar, though this one is more of a wait another day or two to see what happens...
Bonds
Posted by ducksoup on 14th of Aug 2010 at 07:18 pm
thanks, wish I had seen these charts on Friday before I made a move ... it really does look like tyx needs another move down to complete the next divergent low, and the resistance from Feb-March should kick in not too much further down, but best to wait and see as you say
Oh well, will keep the stops tight and take my medicine to live another day if necessary....