Mike Swanson of WallStreetWindow is buying SDS in advance of
Bernanke's speech today at 2:00 pm. Check
out http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/content/node/16618 . In a
blog to subscribers early this morning
he said:
"In the past the market would often rally up into Bernanke
appearances and then start to drop right as he started to talk. It
seems likely to me that the traders buying yesterday were doing so
ahead of Apple's earnings and Bernanke's speech.
"Last week we saw earnings season start and just about every
single day the market has sold earnings. This Apple earnings report
is really the only report that has helped the market out in any
way.
"I'm pretty convinced that we have seen the peak of this
earnings rally when the S&P 500 got near 1,100 this week. Right
now the market has stiff resistance there. If somehow it were to
trade straight up from here in the next two sessions and go through
that level I do not think it would go anywhere. For the market to
have a big sustainable rally it would need to go up to that level
and then pause for a few days before breaking out - that is what
the market would have to do in order to be bullish.
"I'm bearish and doubt that will happen,. Instead I think the
market will trade up a little more and reverse back down again and
break yesterday's low within a week to start another leg down to
this bear market.
"If the market doesn't sell the opening today then I think it
will probably continue higher until Bernanke's speech at 2:00 PM.
That is a point at which it could easily peak out and start to drop
again. I will likely start to bet against the stock market then by
buying the SDS ultra-short ETF and placing a stop on it at its July
low around $31.00.
"I want to give the position plenty of room in case the market
were to test the 1,100 level this week. I also am leaving enough
money in my account in cash to double the position at some point in
the future if I want to - so it would be a 50% position."
In an email to subscribers around 10:00 a.m., he said:
" I am placing a long recommendation to buy SDS right now
at the currently
trading price of 33.65 with a stop loss point of 31 a share.
I explained
this before the bell my plans to buy SDS today.
I had been hoping that the
market would act stronger off of the open and
rally more today into Bernanke's 2:00 PM testimony. It may still
do that,
but so far today the market has gapped up and faded back down.
Apple
which was the excitement of the morning gapped open and is
currently
trading at a low of the day and the Nasdaq 100 are actually in
the red.
So I took I went long now
instead of waiting. I am likely to buy more
once SDS goes through 35.50 or if somehow the market does manage
to trade
up more in the next few days. You can never get in
something at an exact
top or bottom so you just have to take a position at some point
and with
the market trading down off the open I want to make sure I get
a
Posted by dallassteve on 21st of Jul 2010 at 11:59 am
I subscribe to Wall street window, but I did not read it today!
Thanks for the heads-up. Mike does longer term
analysis. He does not like short term trades. He might
be getting in a little early, and I guess he knows this.
In contrast, Sam Collins at Investor Place pointed out the DOW
downtrend line at 10,350 and pointed that out as a good shorting
point.
I am mostly in cash, and short GDX and SWC. They were in
the money yesterday morning, and I wish I had taken the quick
profits. Let's see if the GDX mechanical system short signal
has room to run. I think it does, so I am holding on.
I follow very few newsletters and trading sites, but I do
respect Mike Swanson's analysis. Picking tops and bottoms is very
difficult to do, but I've found that he actually does a fairly good
job of it (assuming that you use stops), mainly because he has a
consistent method for doing it based on long-term moving averages
(150 day and 200 day and the like.)
FWIW I am giving the SPY a little room to possibly above
the 110 high, because if this is the "C" of the ABC rebound off the
July 1st pivot low, then it could take it out the A leg high
by a little (say 110.50 to 111.50) before we go down again.
But , that said, I think the market peaks today or tomorrow so I am
building a new SPY/ SPX futures short position now. Also shorting
GDXJ. But looking to go long both stocks and golds in coming weeks
after they drop again. Especially tech stocks like MSFT, INTC,
HPQ
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Short Market Now?
Posted by tradequick on 21st of Jul 2010 at 11:16 am
Mike Swanson of WallStreetWindow is buying SDS in advance of Bernanke's speech today at 2:00 pm. Check out http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/content/node/16618 . In a blog to subscribers early this morning he said:
"In the past the market would often rally up into Bernanke appearances and then start to drop right as he started to talk. It seems likely to me that the traders buying yesterday were doing so ahead of Apple's earnings and Bernanke's speech.
"Last week we saw earnings season start and just about every single day the market has sold earnings. This Apple earnings report is really the only report that has helped the market out in any way.
"I'm pretty convinced that we have seen the peak of this earnings rally when the S&P 500 got near 1,100 this week. Right now the market has stiff resistance there. If somehow it were to trade straight up from here in the next two sessions and go through that level I do not think it would go anywhere. For the market to have a big sustainable rally it would need to go up to that level and then pause for a few days before breaking out - that is what the market would have to do in order to be bullish.
"I'm bearish and doubt that will happen,. Instead I think the market will trade up a little more and reverse back down again and break yesterday's low within a week to start another leg down to this bear market.
"If the market doesn't sell the opening today then I think it will probably continue higher until Bernanke's speech at 2:00 PM. That is a point at which it could easily peak out and start to drop again. I will likely start to bet against the stock market then by buying the SDS ultra-short ETF and placing a stop on it at its July low around $31.00.
"I want to give the position plenty of room in case the market were to test the 1,100 level this week. I also am leaving enough money in my account in cash to double the position at some point in the future if I want to - so it would be a 50% position."
In an email to subscribers around 10:00 a.m., he said:
" I am placing a long recommendation to buy SDS right now at the currently
trading price of 33.65 with a stop loss point of 31 a share. I explained
this before the bell my plans to buy SDS today.
I had been hoping that the market would act stronger off of the open and
rally more today into Bernanke's 2:00 PM testimony. It may still do that,
but so far today the market has gapped up and faded back down. Apple
which was the excitement of the morning gapped open and is currently
trading at a low of the day and the Nasdaq 100 are actually in the red.
So I took I went long now instead of waiting. I am likely to buy more
once SDS goes through 35.50 or if somehow the market does manage to trade
up more in the next few days. You can never get in something at an exact
top or bottom so you just have to take a position at some point and with
the market trading down off the open I want to make sure I get a
position."
Comments?
SDS
Posted by dallassteve on 21st of Jul 2010 at 11:59 am
I subscribe to Wall street window, but I did not read it today! Thanks for the heads-up. Mike does longer term analysis. He does not like short term trades. He might be getting in a little early, and I guess he knows this.
In contrast, Sam Collins at Investor Place pointed out the DOW downtrend line at 10,350 and pointed that out as a good shorting point.
I am mostly in cash, and short GDX and SWC. They were in the money yesterday morning, and I wish I had taken the quick profits. Let's see if the GDX mechanical system short signal has room to run. I think it does, so I am holding on.
I follow very few newsletters
Posted by user32 on 21st of Jul 2010 at 11:36 am
I follow very few newsletters and trading sites, but I do respect Mike Swanson's analysis. Picking tops and bottoms is very difficult to do, but I've found that he actually does a fairly good job of it (assuming that you use stops), mainly because he has a consistent method for doing it based on long-term moving averages (150 day and 200 day and the like.)
We SPY as a short
Posted by matt on 21st of Jul 2010 at 11:22 am
We SPY as a short on the watchlist with a stop above the downtrend line or above last week's highs, that's similar to the Swanson short
Swanson is putting his stop above the June 21st highs
short spy? and GDXJ?
Posted by PA on 21st of Jul 2010 at 11:47 am
FWIW I am giving the SPY a little room to possibly above the 110 high, because if this is the "C" of the ABC rebound off the July 1st pivot low, then it could take it out the A leg high by a little (say 110.50 to 111.50) before we go down again. But , that said, I think the market peaks today or tomorrow so I am building a new SPY/ SPX futures short position now. Also shorting GDXJ. But looking to go long both stocks and golds in coming weeks after they drop again. Especially tech stocks like MSFT, INTC, HPQ