Posted by marketguy on 14th of Apr 2010 at 05:21 pm
closed over 1200 so that's it for my days as a bear as of
tomorrow morning (which I'm sure will be another 10 handles higher
just to freaking rub it in)....feel free to short freely as I'm
sure you will make a ton.
I rue the days of ever hearing about Gann dates, cycle
tops, ISEE numbers and devastating C waves (I think all are
just ways for bulls to sucker bears even deeper into this
crap...will be lucky to ever recover from this). You can also
add to this list Zerohedge, Karl Denninger, Mish, xTrends and all
the other bloody perma bears out there!
Marketguy - what you have experienced is a perfect example of
why one should refrain from attempting to pick tops (or bottoms for
that matter). Indicators (cycles,etc) are to be viewed as
secondary to price. They help to "indicate" when price "may"
reverse but you need price to confirm. The trend is created
by price with the indicators serving to support or raise caution.
Indicators can also flash a signal that is later negated so
again one needs to focus on price as the KEY factor when making
trading decisions. Lastly, you need to practice portfolio and
risk management. For example, trade smaller against the trend
with FIRM STOPS in place at the time of entry that must be adhered
to if breached. This will minimize losses (we all have bad
trades) but allow you to fight another battle. We certainly
wish you nothing but the best.
Posted by marketguy on 14th of Apr 2010 at 05:48 pm
couldn't agree with you more Steve....I have "no one" to blame
buy myself for the last month and a half. I did "all" the
things I know "not" to do (having a bias which made me add to
losses, not use stops, and searched out opinions that agreed with
mine, etc., etc.,) and have totally screwed myself.
the sad thing is if you go back to my posts from last Feb/March
('09) I was bullish and could've made alot of money but I got
caught up in listening to others and changed my opinion that I'm
having a hard time dropping to this day (despite all the
losses).
sad state bud...hopefully someone out there can learn from it
(as obviously I'm too stupid to).
Posted by racerick on 15th of Apr 2010 at 05:26 am
Discipline Triumphs Conviction
I keep the above posted on my computer, The truest thing, as
well as the hardest thing, for most traders.
There's not a trader alive that I know of that hasn't blown up
their acct. at some point or another. In fact, some of the
most successful traders I know have done more than once.
So learn from it, regroup, get back in the saddle with a set of
written down trading rules that you force yourself to look at each
day, with even just a small acct. doing small swing trades.
I 100% agree with Steve on price is king. When I'm doing
individual coaching one of the things I do is have the
student trade for a week using nothing but trendlines both
regular and horizontal. No other indicators. And I often do this
myself, it fact prob. 1/2 my charts don't have any and I've been
doing this for 30+ years. You'll be absolutely amazed at what the
results will be. And forget reading what all the so called experts
think unless you're doing some fundamental research.
One other thing that has helped me over the years is to make
your system as mechanical as possible ie trading rules. For example
- never trade against the 50ma in a 30min or less time frame. Just
develop your own set of rules that you adamently follow, no matter
what.
Posted by pthoreson on 14th of Apr 2010 at 06:04 pm
This guy,
Bret Steenbarger, posts frequently on the
psychology of trading. So often, in fact, an RSS subscription is
like a hammer hitting you in the head each day. Trading psychology
may be the last thing you want to read right now, but maybe after a
few weeks off......
It has been an extremely frustrating time lately, I have
always believed that when things don't make sense they soon will.
That hasn't happened yet. I have been day trading only since about
September, with only a very few overnight positions and have missed
75% of this move up. So be it.
All the best. No reason not to post from the
sidelines.
For longer term investments, moving average systems appear to
work to keep you in major trends. I've not done any
backtesting, but Ditch's EMATS system gives every appearance of
being successful. And there's also Matt's 401K system.
Both of these, and others (such as Ditch's 54/108 daily EMA
crosses or simple 13/34 weekly EMA crosses) take the emotion out of
investing and prevent one from losing a bundle calling tops and
bottoms.
At the other end of the spectrum, trading individual stocks or
using the mechanical systems are both ways to keep yourself from
substituting hope for reality. And the new mechanical systems
certainly seem to hold a lot of promise.
I feel your pain Marketguy. I too have a few short
positions from a month an a half ago - no stops in place because I
was sure that 'devastating Wave C' was underway. Got out of
most of my shorts at the end of March when I couldn't take the heat
anymore and have just been playing stuff off the
watchlist.
One day I will make back those losses, one trade at a
time. I got schooled by the market and am 'paying
tuition'. The absolute hardest part of trading for me is
keeping the emotion out it, something I struggle with daily.
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Well...
Posted by marketguy on 14th of Apr 2010 at 05:21 pm
closed over 1200 so that's it for my days as a bear as of tomorrow morning (which I'm sure will be another 10 handles higher just to freaking rub it in)....feel free to short freely as I'm sure you will make a ton.
I rue the days of ever hearing about Gann dates, cycle tops, ISEE numbers and devastating C waves (I think all are just ways for bulls to sucker bears even deeper into this crap...will be lucky to ever recover from this). You can also add to this list Zerohedge, Karl Denninger, Mish, xTrends and all the other bloody perma bears out there!
Enough of the drama, Marketguy.
Posted by epmaruggi on 14th of Apr 2010 at 11:35 pm
You have some of the best postings on the blog.
Marketguy - what you have
Posted by steve on 14th of Apr 2010 at 05:31 pm
Marketguy - what you have experienced is a perfect example of why one should refrain from attempting to pick tops (or bottoms for that matter). Indicators (cycles,etc) are to be viewed as secondary to price. They help to "indicate" when price "may" reverse but you need price to confirm. The trend is created by price with the indicators serving to support or raise caution. Indicators can also flash a signal that is later negated so again one needs to focus on price as the KEY factor when making trading decisions. Lastly, you need to practice portfolio and risk management. For example, trade smaller against the trend with FIRM STOPS in place at the time of entry that must be adhered to if breached. This will minimize losses (we all have bad trades) but allow you to fight another battle. We certainly wish you nothing but the best.
couldn't agree with you more
Posted by marketguy on 14th of Apr 2010 at 05:48 pm
couldn't agree with you more Steve....I have "no one" to blame buy myself for the last month and a half. I did "all" the things I know "not" to do (having a bias which made me add to losses, not use stops, and searched out opinions that agreed with mine, etc., etc.,) and have totally screwed myself.
the sad thing is if you go back to my posts from last Feb/March ('09) I was bullish and could've made alot of money but I got caught up in listening to others and changed my opinion that I'm having a hard time dropping to this day (despite all the losses).
sad state bud...hopefully someone out there can learn from it (as obviously I'm too stupid to).
Hang in there
Posted by racerick on 15th of Apr 2010 at 05:26 am
Discipline Triumphs Conviction
I keep the above posted on my computer, The truest thing, as well as the hardest thing, for most traders.
There's not a trader alive that I know of that hasn't blown up their acct. at some point or another. In fact, some of the most successful traders I know have done more than once.
So learn from it, regroup, get back in the saddle with a set of written down trading rules that you force yourself to look at each day, with even just a small acct. doing small swing trades.
I 100% agree with Steve on price is king. When I'm doing individual coaching one of the things I do is have the student trade for a week using nothing but trendlines both regular and horizontal. No other indicators. And I often do this myself, it fact prob. 1/2 my charts don't have any and I've been doing this for 30+ years. You'll be absolutely amazed at what the results will be. And forget reading what all the so called experts think unless you're doing some fundamental research.
One other thing that has helped me over the years is to make your system as mechanical as possible ie trading rules. For example - never trade against the 50ma in a 30min or less time frame. Just develop your own set of rules that you adamently follow, no matter what.
So hang in there and best of luck.
Rick
This guy, Bret Steenbarger, posts
Posted by pthoreson on 14th of Apr 2010 at 06:04 pm
This guy, Bret Steenbarger, posts frequently on the psychology of trading. So often, in fact, an RSS subscription is like a hammer hitting you in the head each day. Trading psychology may be the last thing you want to read right now, but maybe after a few weeks off......
It has been an extremely frustrating time lately, I have always believed that when things don't make sense they soon will. That hasn't happened yet. I have been day trading only since about September, with only a very few overnight positions and have missed 75% of this move up. So be it.
All the best. No reason not to post from the sidelines.
thanks (that is a good
Posted by marketguy on 14th of Apr 2010 at 06:10 pm
thanks (that is a good link).
I will miss posting
For longer term investments, moving
Posted by algyros on 14th of Apr 2010 at 06:45 pm
For longer term investments, moving average systems appear to work to keep you in major trends. I've not done any backtesting, but Ditch's EMATS system gives every appearance of being successful. And there's also Matt's 401K system. Both of these, and others (such as Ditch's 54/108 daily EMA crosses or simple 13/34 weekly EMA crosses) take the emotion out of investing and prevent one from losing a bundle calling tops and bottoms.
At the other end of the spectrum, trading individual stocks or using the mechanical systems are both ways to keep yourself from substituting hope for reality. And the new mechanical systems certainly seem to hold a lot of promise.
Chin up, Marketguy. And good luck to you.
I feel your pain Marketguy.
Posted by pebs on 14th of Apr 2010 at 07:25 pm
I feel your pain Marketguy. I too have a few short positions from a month an a half ago - no stops in place because I was sure that 'devastating Wave C' was underway. Got out of most of my shorts at the end of March when I couldn't take the heat anymore and have just been playing stuff off the watchlist.
One day I will make back those losses, one trade at a time. I got schooled by the market and am 'paying tuition'. The absolute hardest part of trading for me is keeping the emotion out it, something I struggle with daily.