Here's a 30 min SPX chart, a potential ascending triangle
pattern has formed with a 4th wave consolidation, my preferred
scenario would be for another move higher to complete a 5th
wave.
The ascending triangle measures about 15 points (1170 - 1155),
to a target of
1185
I made an alteration to the pattern, could pullback within the
triangle as well before breaking out. The uptrend line is
support; or could form a more complex pattern
steever - that is valid question and at times open to
interpretation. But a guideline is to find a "point of
recognition" which marks the 3rd wave. The 3rd wave is
identified with the peak momentum readings (normally RSI and MACD).
Further, the 3rd wave cannot be the shortest.
Again, use this as a simple guideline (mapping technique)
not as a trigger.
Ascending triangles always have negative divergence and then the
move up is a 5th wave, ascending triangles are 4th wave
consolidation patterns, and if the pattern breaks to the upside and
validates, it's a 5th wave, which is an ending move.
Again it may also form a more complex triangle etc
Market
Posted by matt on 23rd of Mar 2010 at 01:33 pm
Here's a 30 min SPX chart, a potential ascending triangle pattern has formed with a 4th wave consolidation, my preferred scenario would be for another move higher to complete a 5th wave.
The ascending triangle measures about 15 points (1170 - 1155), to a target of 1185
I made an alteration to
Posted by matt on 23rd of Mar 2010 at 01:44 pm
I made an alteration to the pattern, could pullback within the triangle as well before breaking out. The uptrend line is support; or could form a more complex pattern
elliot wave makes no sense
Posted by steever on 23rd of Mar 2010 at 01:40 pm
elliot wave makes no sense to me for use as real time analysis. can you please explain why 1155 is not the wave 3 high and 1143 not the wave 4 low?
steever - that is valid
Posted by steve on 23rd of Mar 2010 at 01:55 pm
steever - that is valid question and at times open to interpretation. But a guideline is to find a "point of recognition" which marks the 3rd wave. The 3rd wave is identified with the peak momentum readings (normally RSI and MACD). Further, the 3rd wave cannot be the shortest.
Again, use this as a simple guideline (mapping technique) not as a trigger.
inverted h & s target
Posted by vnathwani on 23rd of Mar 2010 at 01:36 pm
inverted h & s target around 1178 i think aswell
Yes - it has an
Posted by steve on 23rd of Mar 2010 at 01:58 pm
Yes - it has an objective target around the 1175-85 area. Again, it may or may not reach or exceed that level. Just a technical guideline.
Neg D's
Posted by shellysan on 23rd of Mar 2010 at 01:36 pm
Matt, in your chart, do you see any neg divergences between the last high and today? The MACD looks lower, but not crossing down yet. Thanks
Ascending triangles always have negative
Posted by matt on 23rd of Mar 2010 at 01:41 pm
Ascending triangles always have negative divergence and then the move up is a 5th wave, ascending triangles are 4th wave consolidation patterns, and if the pattern breaks to the upside and validates, it's a 5th wave, which is an ending move.
Again it may also form a more complex triangle etc
I don't understand the 1085
Posted by poohnana on 23rd of Mar 2010 at 01:34 pm
I don't understand the 1085 target.
That's 1185.
Posted by Peridot on 23rd of Mar 2010 at 01:37 pm
That's 1185.