For 6 months they have said bear market? Really? I have not
been here that long. I thought they said this was wave 2
waiting for the wave 3 to go to new lows. So whats the
deal?
guys, I've never said it was wave 2, I said it could have been
it was a potential scenario, but the bullish scenarios were clearly
laid out!
we have had long after long after long after on the watchlist
for 12 months. I've said that the market is in a bull market,
how long does it last? I don't know, I dont' care, trade
it.
Play the trend, the trend is up, our long term systems have been
long for a long time. You make a lot more money by playing
the trend instead of worrying about a definition of bull or bear
market, it depends on how you define a bull market, but who care,
trade the trend.
So what do you do if this is a bull market, does that mean you
just go out and go long everything and throw discipline out the
window? If you believe that, then just turn off the computer
and don't worry about anything,
Elliot wave analysis changes as fast as the market. Use it for
some extra information if you wish, but don't use it as your main
tool to pick your trades.
Posted by vnathwani on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:44 pm
Problem is EW isn't just extra information. Its extra darn
confusing in most cases and here is a classic example. To put it in
a nutshell, the prior "count" or whatever EW fans like to call it
was screwed up and its now conveniently forgotten as a "new count"
takes centre stage.
again as I've stated before, use EW as a tool only, personally I
only find it useful for shorter term, such a intra day charts and
sometimes daily charts, but honesty I find it more useful intra day
(such as 1 min or 5 min, 15 min, 60 min charts) i.e. in conjunction
with positive or negative divergence, but that's it.
that's why I rarely post any EW in my newsletters on daily index
charts, I prefer trendlines, MA's, and other things.
When EW can get people into trouble is on the real long term,
because if you are trying to say something is supercycle or grand
supercycle, those things are so theoretical.
What the Heck are they talking about, for months you've said the
trend was up until proved other wise! The trend is still up it has
been since July with a slight stutter in early Nov. Ride the wave
or drown!
vnathwani - we get your point enough said on the subject.
Please feel free to share some analysis (charts, etc) versus
simply critiquing things and offering opinions. The market is
DYNAMIC and things are subject to change under ALL TECHNICAL
analysis. Focus on the prevailing trend and play the best setups in
accordance with one's objectives.
Posted by vnathwani on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:53 pm
EW isn't technical analysis. Its a theory Steve
Outside EW, technical analysis is subject to change and its
accountable
The reason why people keep coming on the blog talking about "you
said it was wave 2 this and abc that" is because the audio always
has lines and squiggles referring to it.
Take the accountability and measure and state clearly when a
scenario is right or wrong and the actual number of S&P Points
that this super EW theory derives
Very true but my point is simply that the market is DYNAMIC and
subject to change under ALL TECHNICAL analysis. I simply use
EW for mapping purposes and not for triggers.
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For 6 months they have
regarding the market
Posted by searay on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:13 pm
For 6 months they have said bear market? Really? I have not been here that long. I thought they said this was wave 2 waiting for the wave 3 to go to new lows. So whats the deal?
guys, I've never said it
Posted by matt on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:42 pm
guys, I've never said it was wave 2, I said it could have been it was a potential scenario, but the bullish scenarios were clearly laid out!
we have had long after long after long after on the watchlist for 12 months. I've said that the market is in a bull market, how long does it last? I don't know, I dont' care, trade it.
Play the trend, the trend is up, our long term systems have been long for a long time. You make a lot more money by playing the trend instead of worrying about a definition of bull or bear market, it depends on how you define a bull market, but who care, trade the trend.
So what do you do if this is a bull market, does that mean you just go out and go long everything and throw discipline out the window? If you believe that, then just turn off the computer and don't worry about anything,
all the sentences here Matt
Posted by vnathwani on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:47 pm
all the sentences here Matt that don't have the word elliott or wave in it make complete sense
Elliot Wave
Posted by mvachon on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:37 pm
Elliot wave analysis changes as fast as the market. Use it for some extra information if you wish, but don't use it as your main tool to pick your trades.
Problem is EW isn't just
Posted by vnathwani on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:44 pm
Problem is EW isn't just extra information. Its extra darn confusing in most cases and here is a classic example. To put it in a nutshell, the prior "count" or whatever EW fans like to call it was screwed up and its now conveniently forgotten as a "new count" takes centre stage.
Where is the accountability for the old count?
again as I've stated before,
Posted by matt on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:51 pm
again as I've stated before, use EW as a tool only, personally I only find it useful for shorter term, such a intra day charts and sometimes daily charts, but honesty I find it more useful intra day (such as 1 min or 5 min, 15 min, 60 min charts) i.e. in conjunction with positive or negative divergence, but that's it.
that's why I rarely post any EW in my newsletters on daily index charts, I prefer trendlines, MA's, and other things.
When EW can get people into trouble is on the real long term, because if you are trying to say something is supercycle or grand supercycle, those things are so theoretical.
agreed. Trendlines/ MA/ Divergences and
Posted by vnathwani on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:55 pm
agreed. Trendlines/ MA/ Divergences and using a specific MA crossover for example....13/34 to define the bigger trend.
I will keep schtum about EW as I have made my points clear now
What the Heck are they
Posted by ditch on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:55 pm
What the Heck are they talking about, for months you've said the trend was up until proved other wise! The trend is still up it has been since July with a slight stutter in early Nov. Ride the wave or drown!
vnathwani - we get your
Posted by steve on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:49 pm
vnathwani - we get your point enough said on the subject. Please feel free to share some analysis (charts, etc) versus simply critiquing things and offering opinions. The market is DYNAMIC and things are subject to change under ALL TECHNICAL analysis. Focus on the prevailing trend and play the best setups in accordance with one's objectives.
EW isn't technical analysis. Its
Posted by vnathwani on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:53 pm
EW isn't technical analysis. Its a theory Steve
Outside EW, technical analysis is subject to change and its accountable
The reason why people keep coming on the blog talking about "you said it was wave 2 this and abc that" is because the audio always has lines and squiggles referring to it.
Take the accountability and measure and state clearly when a scenario is right or wrong and the actual number of S&P Points that this super EW theory derives
Very true but my point
Posted by steve on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:57 pm
Very true but my point is simply that the market is DYNAMIC and subject to change under ALL TECHNICAL analysis. I simply use EW for mapping purposes and not for triggers.