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Buy a call spread with

XLY options question

Posted by te22 on 9th of May 2023 at 11:16 am

Buy a call spread with time frame appropriate to your view. To partially finance your call spread, you could consider shorting puts with less than one week to expiry, at a strike  you dont believe will be hit - hard to do considering potential downside volatility from debt ceiling, or other factors. 

Steve, no one expects you

Volatility systems

Posted by te22 on 7th of May 2023 at 08:52 pm

Steve, no one expects you to pick market direction. We all know that there are three possible scenarios, on a daily basis, up, down, or sideways, with probabilities associated with each of those scenarios. Your comments in the Thursday newsletter were spot on. For the newer members, they may need some handholding, where you chime in mid morning that it is a trend day, where pullbacks can be bought, for instance, that beautiful bull flag pull back to 4130.   Don’t be mistaken: we appreciate you :)

For starters, I have the

Volatility systems

Posted by te22 on 7th of May 2023 at 08:15 pm

For starters, I have the upmost respect for you, Steve and Matt. However, I just re-listened to Steve’s opening comments from the Thursday newsletter he basically says could be a move up above 4100 on the ES, could be a move down below 4060 on the ES , or could be range bound.  So, not as definitive a viewpoint for newer members trying to discern what you guys are saying, as you may believe. Of course for long-term members, able to discern what Steve said with the strong move over 4100, it became clear that it was a trend day up where that first major pullback could be bought.

STNE - Brazil payment processor

STNE up today

Posted by te22 on 4th of May 2023 at 10:54 am

STNE - Brazil payment processor w a lot of loans gone bad. Warren Buffet owns this one - probably from a lot lower. 

MOC $614M Buy Side -

Posted by te22 on 1st of May 2023 at 03:35 pm

MOC $614M Buy Side - tiny

XLF Cup n Handle on

Posted by te22 on 1st of May 2023 at 10:50 am

XLF Cup n Handle on the daily - looks like it wants 200DMA/top of Boll Bands - could buy a risk reversal short the 32 P buy the 33/35 C spread for about $0.50 - any opinions from you options experts?

Stanley Druckenmiller interview  https://youtu.be/dXxWajc-tgI


nice EOD short squeeze from

SPY demand zone 404.37-401.77

Posted by te22 on 26th of Apr 2023 at 03:56 pm

nice EOD short squeeze from the gap zone

Wave 4 is typically 14.6%,

SPY demand zone 404.37-401.77

Posted by te22 on 26th of Apr 2023 at 02:11 pm
  1. Wave 4 is typically 14.6%, 23.6%, or 38.2% of wave 3. SPY is already lower than the 38.2%.  I'm no EW expert, but would assume SPY needs to stay above Wave 1 high 402.49 for the count to be valid. The gap 403.69-404.55 looks like the next most interesting prospective bull/bear battle bounce back opportunity zone. 

$VIX may begin to pick

Posted by te22 on 25th of Apr 2023 at 09:22 am

$VIX may begin to pick up:   BOE: THE BOJ, THE ECB, AND THE SNB, IN CONSULTATION WITH THE FED, HAVE JOINTLY DECIDED TO REVERT THE FREQUENCY OF THEIR  7-DAY OPERATIONS FROM DAILY TO ONCE PER WEEK.

Peter Brandt: "I would consider

Posted by te22 on 25th of Apr 2023 at 09:06 am

Peter Brandt: "I would consider the five week pennant retest of the right shoulder of an underlying inverted H&S to be a tradeable set up $NQ_F $QQQ"

FRC - after hours serious

Posted by te22 on 24th of Apr 2023 at 04:08 pm

FRC - after hours serious tail candle fade the earnings release pop. deposits worse than expected

Depending on the size of

MOC $714m sell side

Posted by te22 on 24th of Apr 2023 at 03:59 pm

Depending on the size of the Market on close imbalance relative to the day's volume, some traders will fade MOC when it is countertrend, or play the trend if it is heavy - official data hits at 3:50pm, so, for today, you could have put a limit buy order at the VWAP on SPY and been rewarded for it. By no means is this a consistent trade to take.  Trader's choice.  I post the early data to the community when it's available.  

MOC $714m sell side

Posted by te22 on 24th of Apr 2023 at 03:42 pm

MOC $714m sell side

FOR SALE: have a few

Posted by te22 on 24th of Apr 2023 at 03:26 pm

FOR SALE: have a few dozen 1 Oz 1982 South African Gold Krugerrand Coins. pm me if interested, or have a good recommendation for selling at good price. Thanks.

ALB - first significant bounce

Posted by te22 on 21st of Apr 2023 at 12:22 pm

ALB - first significant bounce after -7% on the day . Chile nationalizing lithium mining, but ALB has license through 2043. 7-8x forward P/E...and, there are >2k Puts at 200 expiring today.

early MOC $503M sell side

Posted by te22 on 20th of Apr 2023 at 03:37 pm

early MOC $503M sell side

yes, the KISS table charts. thanks

Matt, is XLB a new

Posted by te22 on 18th of Apr 2023 at 09:46 am

Matt, is XLB a new long as of yesterday's close, or as of 4/13? Thank you

MTB - heavy concentration in commercial real estate - reported this AM. initial pop...then drop.

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