Goldman also has a few other scenarios including a dovish one of
SPX 4,700 if it is not as bad as thought and one in the middle at
3,600 with a rally to 4,000. One will notice they will point to the
one that suits their position depending on where we are from a
price perspective. They did this just recently when buying the
reversal off the lows and stated at that time that "it was likely a
recession would be avoided". So now that stocks found short term
resistance at the 200 day, they are on the supply/bearish tour so
to speak and talking on that end of their forecast.
Goldman is simply running a business like everyone else. I think
most know this by now though it is worth having reminders of how
things work and why they are being done in order to better prepare
and plan accordingly for me (perspective, context). It helps me
mentally when things go to particular areas in knowing the
risk/reward is shifting and how to use that information. Similar to
how indicators, other tools, news, and charts are considered. I
find it particularly helpful and encouraging to see how they are
essentially navigating trading and investing just as I
am.
Every year I set a low and high end for the market (SPX) for
operating my trading and investing strategies. Before the recent
movements, I was at 3,500 on the low side and 4,500 on the high
side for my plan. There was another scenario where we could have
overshot my low end and one that overshot my high end, though they
would have been really extreme and even better opportunities to
position. These figures can/will change over time given new
information presented and how the market reacts to it. Gaps in the
cash market prices also help me out a ton in managing risk. Once I
view it this way, it becomes a lot less scary to operate in the day
to day. So when the big stories come out of celebration be them
bullish or bearish, I can take a more relaxed approach in that this
is part of the game, and see how I'm going to respond or make
changes if warranted for whatever my timeframe, tolerance, and
goals are accordingly.
I keep it simple, for the trading strategy, I use two
instruments to execute it. One long and one short.
For my investing strategy, I use a handful of instruments
maximum, stock indexes, sectors, bonds, and cash.
In any case, it is simply a matter of how much capital I'm
willing to have in any of those areas given the risk/reward
proposition. That's it. Another day I wake up grateful and have a
shot at life. Best of success to all this week personally and
professionally.
(this is an excerpt from my trading/investing journal
12/12/22)-FV
This is a great chart Matt. Some things take time to sink in for
me. I'm just noticing that the levels shown here coincide with the
ES levels that Steve posts everyday. Someone pointed out how long
it takes to build a plan and be able to execute over time
consistently. It reminds me of when I was learning to play guitar,
there is definitely a curve for getting going, though once I did,
the skills build, confidence, and then you can do some things you
never thought possible in the beginning. Thank you!
An excellent time to be patient now for me after the morning
action/profits. As you prior noted a lot of the action has been
coming in the afterhours and premarket sessions, particularly
around these economic reports where volatility picks up. It has
been great for risk/reward when considering the supply and demand
zones. I actually think I'm starting to put some things together
trading wise, my consistency is up and it is much more simple to
execute with my chosen instruments. I only use 2, and a few
tools.
Now back to realizing I know nothing but what I have, the major
areas of consideration, gaps, and taking the next trade totally
independent with the new information I need to consider. Doing what
I can to enter into high probability setups. Being here has grown
me a trader, thank you guys.
Great call by Steve of the supply zone. I was prepared to scale
a short trade into higher areas, though the amount I played worked
out nicely, further strengthening my positioning with the added
profits. I took profits in one account and left some on as the
entry price is very good another against some longer term swing
inventory..sold some on the long side into the strength as we were
gapping up before the number. Then bought that portion back on the
woosh down after that number.
The gap totally flipped now from it being a gap up to a gap
down. Pretty cool hitting on both sides.
re: supply zone 3,984-4,015, also used chart provided with fibs,
and chart provided with supply and demand zones (my charts used for
my plan, attached from the newsletter)
Thanks for the great work in the newsletter Steve!
It is all positive and will set up opportunities for a great
risk/reward trading and investing. Tutes will clean up as usual,
just taking what they give when they give it. They need a spread to
make money and so do I.
I'll continue to watch/play the gaps on both sides. The rest is
all noise, I'm aware of news items and just using reactions
to profit. Same game different day.
SPX 3,933.92 gap is still open on the cash below (yesterday's
close), didn't fill by a few points.
First gap above at 4,071s.
I locked some down from my long position (SPXL) in one account
when we had that push into 3,970 area. Still have my other 1/2 in
that account, 1/3 of a short position hedging it (SPXS) from the
Friday entry with the system.
Also have a full 1st entry bear long in another account left
still. (SPXL)
Traveling to Destin, FL. Returning Sunday. All the best.
Congrats to all.
SPX I took a double my normal size entry long via SPXL off the
3,920s area where I released another 1/3 of my hedge position
(SPXS) into the strength. I have 1/3 of my hedge position left
(took that trade originally with the system on Friday close) and a
great entry long into an overshoot of the demand zone
(today).
I sold the small bounce premarket this morning after buying SPXL
yesterday at 3,987, the low 4,000 and change somewhere is where I
sold. Didn't like the gap, though certainly didn't expect this
dump. Patience has paid this week. Pretty stretched away from the 5
and 9 day mas again here now, risk/reward:
SPX VIX One of the things of note about the market currently is
that the VIX has just begun to rally off the bottom area support
and stocks haven't fallen all that much yet from the most recent
rally to 4,100. The VIX has a long way to go to get truly extended
as it has in this wide trading range all year ($19-20 up to $34-35
or so) and the SPX would have a long way to go if it were going to
fall hard at some point be it this year or next year.
I'm still of the opinion that the probability is that the market
doesn't crash to new lows before year end, though it certainly is
not impossible..it would just be very rare without something else
major occuring. I think the answer is somewhere in between, meaning
it doesn't blast higher either.
Gaps below are 3,748 and 3,583 either way. First two gaps above
are now at 4,071.70 and 4,110.41.
Lots of things lining up here, demand zone support, pivot point,
other indicators. If scaling either way or both, certainly an area
to consider objectively for being able to do so or plan otherwise.
Great stuff on providing that early today, Steve! I appreciate
you
Also thought Matt made a good call with taking some off
yesterday as the market could have went either way. This kind of
range with so many possibilities is the kind of market when I'm
trading, I'll trade in pieces until a more clear risk/reward shot
comes into view. As is often discussed here, don't have to be an
all or nothing trader, etc.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
SPX has a gap at
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 12th of Dec 2022 at 09:43 am
SPX has a gap at 3,934.38 from Friday's close. It should fill. Will it fill today or be saved for one of the economic events remains to be seen..
It is shown in the
Is the Strap long and Bear long the same thing ...
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 12th of Dec 2022 at 09:21 am
It is shown in the SPY trades section, entry date 12/7/22: https://breakpointtrades.com/spy_trades/
Goldman also has a few
S&P 500 could fall 20% in recession - Goldman SachsBy ...
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 12th of Dec 2022 at 09:03 am
Goldman also has a few other scenarios including a dovish one of SPX 4,700 if it is not as bad as thought and one in the middle at 3,600 with a rally to 4,000. One will notice they will point to the one that suits their position depending on where we are from a price perspective. They did this just recently when buying the reversal off the lows and stated at that time that "it was likely a recession would be avoided". So now that stocks found short term resistance at the 200 day, they are on the supply/bearish tour so to speak and talking on that end of their forecast.
Goldman is simply running a business like everyone else. I think most know this by now though it is worth having reminders of how things work and why they are being done in order to better prepare and plan accordingly for me (perspective, context). It helps me mentally when things go to particular areas in knowing the risk/reward is shifting and how to use that information. Similar to how indicators, other tools, news, and charts are considered. I find it particularly helpful and encouraging to see how they are essentially navigating trading and investing just as I am.
Every year I set a low and high end for the market (SPX) for operating my trading and investing strategies. Before the recent movements, I was at 3,500 on the low side and 4,500 on the high side for my plan. There was another scenario where we could have overshot my low end and one that overshot my high end, though they would have been really extreme and even better opportunities to position. These figures can/will change over time given new information presented and how the market reacts to it. Gaps in the cash market prices also help me out a ton in managing risk. Once I view it this way, it becomes a lot less scary to operate in the day to day. So when the big stories come out of celebration be them bullish or bearish, I can take a more relaxed approach in that this is part of the game, and see how I'm going to respond or make changes if warranted for whatever my timeframe, tolerance, and goals are accordingly.
I keep it simple, for the trading strategy, I use two instruments to execute it. One long and one short.
For my investing strategy, I use a handful of instruments maximum, stock indexes, sectors, bonds, and cash.
In any case, it is simply a matter of how much capital I'm willing to have in any of those areas given the risk/reward proposition. That's it. Another day I wake up grateful and have a shot at life. Best of success to all this week personally and professionally.
(this is an excerpt from my trading/investing journal 12/12/22)-FV
Cheers Steve, enjoy!
Just wanted to say thanks again for the Bday wishes ...
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 9th of Dec 2022 at 04:10 pm
Cheers Steve, enjoy!
3,933.92 gap filled The gaps don't
SPX 3,933.92 gap is still open on the cash below ...
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 9th of Dec 2022 at 03:59 pm
3,933.92 gap filled
The gaps don't lie like Shakira says, haha
Haha, classic. Great stuff, Matt!
Trading and baseball analogy - educational about trading and stops
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 9th of Dec 2022 at 10:34 am
Haha, classic. Great stuff, Matt!
I saved this post link for my archives for reference. I regularly train and read my fundamentals to practice.
Reminders are so important, practice includes being reminded of what is foundational for success.
You always see players going back to review the film to learn, can do the same with this.
This is a great chart
ES futures
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 9th of Dec 2022 at 09:21 am
This is a great chart Matt. Some things take time to sink in for me. I'm just noticing that the levels shown here coincide with the ES levels that Steve posts everyday. Someone pointed out how long it takes to build a plan and be able to execute over time consistently. It reminds me of when I was learning to play guitar, there is definitely a curve for getting going, though once I did, the skills build, confidence, and then you can do some things you never thought possible in the beginning. Thank you!
An excellent time to be
ES Futures - from the 12/7 low I can see ...
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 9th of Dec 2022 at 09:06 am
An excellent time to be patient now for me after the morning action/profits. As you prior noted a lot of the action has been coming in the afterhours and premarket sessions, particularly around these economic reports where volatility picks up. It has been great for risk/reward when considering the supply and demand zones. I actually think I'm starting to put some things together trading wise, my consistency is up and it is much more simple to execute with my chosen instruments. I only use 2, and a few tools.
Now back to realizing I know nothing but what I have, the major areas of consideration, gaps, and taking the next trade totally independent with the new information I need to consider. Doing what I can to enter into high probability setups. Being here has grown me a trader, thank you guys.
Great call by Steve of
ES futures
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 9th of Dec 2022 at 08:47 am
Great call by Steve of the supply zone. I was prepared to scale a short trade into higher areas, though the amount I played worked out nicely, further strengthening my positioning with the added profits. I took profits in one account and left some on as the entry price is very good another against some longer term swing inventory..sold some on the long side into the strength as we were gapping up before the number. Then bought that portion back on the woosh down after that number.
The gap totally flipped now from it being a gap up to a gap down. Pretty cool hitting on both sides.
re: supply zone 3,984-4,015, also used chart provided with fibs, and chart provided with supply and demand zones (my charts used for my plan, attached from the newsletter)
Thanks for the great work in the newsletter Steve!
Happy Birthday Steve! Have a
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 9th of Dec 2022 at 06:52 am
Happy Birthday Steve! Have a fantastic trip!
It is all positive and
Yellen has been speaking and market digesting - says recession ...
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 8th of Dec 2022 at 03:53 pm
It is all positive and will set up opportunities for a great risk/reward trading and investing. Tutes will clean up as usual, just taking what they give when they give it. They need a spread to make money and so do I.
I'll continue to watch/play the gaps on both sides. The rest is all noise, I'm aware of news items and just using reactions to profit. Same game different day.
Just arrived in Miramar Beach.
SPX 3,933.92 gap is still
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 8th of Dec 2022 at 12:42 pm
SPX 3,933.92 gap is still open on the cash below (yesterday's close), didn't fill by a few points.
First gap above at 4,071s.
I locked some down from my long position (SPXL) in one account when we had that push into 3,970 area. Still have my other 1/2 in that account, 1/3 of a short position hedging it (SPXS) from the Friday entry with the system.
Also have a full 1st entry bear long in another account left still. (SPXL)
Traveling to Destin, FL. Returning Sunday. All the best. Congrats to all.
SPX It is bear long
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 7th of Dec 2022 at 04:16 pm
SPX It is bear long time haha
My instrument is SPXL as usual
Really great stuff Matt, helps
SPX 120 min symmetry observation
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 6th of Dec 2022 at 04:22 pm
Really great stuff Matt, helps a lot. Thank you
SPX I took a double
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 6th of Dec 2022 at 03:59 pm
SPX I took a double my normal size entry long via SPXL off the 3,920s area where I released another 1/3 of my hedge position (SPXS) into the strength. I have 1/3 of my hedge position left (took that trade originally with the system on Friday close) and a great entry long into an overshoot of the demand zone (today).
I sold the small bounce premarket this morning after buying SPXL yesterday at 3,987, the low 4,000 and change somewhere is where I sold. Didn't like the gap, though certainly didn't expect this dump. Patience has paid this week. Pretty stretched away from the 5 and 9 day mas again here now, risk/reward:
https://schrts.co/qedpsEzU
schrts.co
SPXL | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
Create advanced interactive price charts for SPXL, with a wide variety of chart types, technical indicators, overlays, and annotation tools.
SPX VIX One of the
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 6th of Dec 2022 at 01:07 pm
SPX VIX One of the things of note about the market currently is that the VIX has just begun to rally off the bottom area support and stocks haven't fallen all that much yet from the most recent rally to 4,100. The VIX has a long way to go to get truly extended as it has in this wide trading range all year ($19-20 up to $34-35 or so) and the SPX would have a long way to go if it were going to fall hard at some point be it this year or next year.
SPX: https://schrts.co/TEZVwGYS
VIX: https://schrts.co/urJkBypV
I'm still of the opinion that the probability is that the market doesn't crash to new lows before year end, though it certainly is not impossible..it would just be very rare without something else major occuring. I think the answer is somewhere in between, meaning it doesn't blast higher either.
Gaps below are 3,748 and 3,583 either way. First two gaps above are now at 4,071.70 and 4,110.41.
schrts.co
$SPX | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
Create advanced interactive price charts for $SPX, with a wide variety of chart types, technical indicators, overlays, and annotation tools.
Lots of things lining up
QQQ Daily Demand Zone
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 6th of Dec 2022 at 11:42 am
Lots of things lining up here, demand zone support, pivot point, other indicators. If scaling either way or both, certainly an area to consider objectively for being able to do so or plan otherwise. Great stuff on providing that early today, Steve! I appreciate you
Also thought Matt made a good call with taking some off yesterday as the market could have went either way. This kind of range with so many possibilities is the kind of market when I'm trading, I'll trade in pieces until a more clear risk/reward shot comes into view. As is often discussed here, don't have to be an all or nothing trader, etc.
BOWL they just made another
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 6th of Dec 2022 at 09:59 am
BOWL they just made another acquisition. Impressive performance this year for the stock, had no idea.
Top of demand zone to
SPX Cash Index Demand Zone 3977-3938
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 6th of Dec 2022 at 09:49 am
Top of demand zone to the nose so far 3,977, nice call Steve
JPM double upgraded by Morgan
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 6th of Dec 2022 at 09:46 am
JPM double upgraded by Morgan Stanley (says a lot as they are major bears in general historically speaking).
I agree, one of the best run banks and a buy on any major pullbacks into demand zones.
..continue to watch for when Jamie Dimon buys shares again as a signal. They are resuming buybacks next year as well.