Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 11:52 pm
Interesting that VOLD never went positive today. I found the
same thing but opposite (positive VOLD on down days) to be the case
just about always on down days since the October rally started -
internals very rarely confirmed the weakness in price during the
uptrend. We'll see this time. Market is likely to be nutty first
thing tomorrow with PCE coming in and there is an ungodly amount of
Gov cheese in the system which I think always keeps the bias to
crashing higher. I saw a headline about an 11 trillion suprise
spending figure today but haven't read the details yet (wouldn't
surprise me if it's for a single year). That's the thing about Gov
spending - it's hard to track and the surprises are typically not
to the downside and they are backwards looking these days (they are
spending without legislation at the border with private flights,
buses, debit cards, etc...that's all finding its way into the
system...and it's almost immediate but we only know about it after
the fact and wonder why the economic reports seem so goofy and
disconnected these days).
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 04:38 pm
I wouldn't beat yourself up. Today's action was perfectly
designed to trap as many traders as possible, as spectacularly as
possible. An AI couldn't have designed a better day for traps if it
trained on all of history's market data and all the books on trader
psychology ever published.
The one thing I have noticed is that they are taking
advantage of the instinct for most people to think hot inflation
and higher rates = lower markets. That's not the case but it's a
widely held belief so those people have emotional reactions on hot
print days and hit the sell button which the smart money takes
advantage of knowing that inflation inflates.
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 04:29 pm
It never made sense to be down on hot inflation numbers and weak
but not too weak GDP data. It's basically mega cap market nirvana -
not to mention Meta also had great earnings. Are we in
stagflation? Yeah, probably, but everyone is stuck buying the
products and services of the mega caps. They have pricing power and
will crush quarter after quarter (I don't count TSLA in the group
anymore, even though I'm long).
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 02:57 pm
This is the kind of things that FA's have to offer and what that
the new ETF's are trying to displace. Honestly, I don't think it
will be that hard for the ETF's to win out. Look at how long the
average lockup period is! Buffer ETF's can be liquidated with
a gain on day 2, if the market has gone up. Hard to compete with
that with this old school approach.
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 02:13 pm
Plaza Accord 2.0? There were some meetings recently with Asian
finance ministers in DC and the rumor is they are discussing a
potential new Plaza Accord. As much as I would hate that kind
of theft from the purchasing power of middle and lower class
Americans to boost fat cat American companies and Asian countries,
I figured nothing would come of it until probably December.
Looking at the dollar today relative to the 10 year yield,
I'm wondering if maybe they decided to act sooner rather than
later? But Yen still weak...hard to say.
This pic briefly describes the conditions that lead to the
1st Plaza Accord. Look familiar?
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 01:44 pm
We did flip green on SPX OANDA (the session started at 5
yesterday). Still at -0.02% right now.
Market trying to figure out if it's worried more about
inflation or growth. If it's inflation, market should go higher,
not lower (peasants be damned).
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 10:14 am
CNBC clueless as usual. They can't figure out why some numbers
look so strong but others signal a weak economy. They refuse to
look at anything through the most logical filters because it's
"political." I mean just state the obvious - the Gov is spending
more than ever in history and our border is being flooded with low
cost labor like never in history and then work from that baseline
forward. A lot of the questions they're asking this morning
suddenly have obvious answers. Sometimes you have to say things
that make your party potentially look bad if you want to be a
financial journalist. But they self censor instead - everyone in
the finance world suffers if we can't talk about the actual causes
when we have problems.
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 09:25 am
The US has never and will never pay down any debt. It's not the
way it works. They service the debt (mostly with printed currency).
Dilute the currency which inflates assets prices which reduces the
purchasing power of everyone. The wealth of the very wealthy asset
holders increase while middle class savings is decimated because
they don't have enough assets to keep up. Eventually the debt
appears smaller after the inflation. Rinse repeat. We're just on
Turbo now and the equation requires at least leveling off spending
while waiting for inflation to do it's work.
There are many saying that the US has no choice but to run
inflation hot for 8 - 10 years (because reduced spending is not an
option, but they don't say that). They're already a couple of years
in and will gaslight the crap out of all of us the entire time it's
happening by saying inflation is not that bad.
Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Apr 2024 at 06:53 pm
Just hit the buy stop / short cover 2 days ago. We're in whipsaw
territory.
If I would have taken both trades the minute they triggered,
it would have been a break even trade. That doesn't suck, but the
mean reversion systems clearly perform better at times like
these.
Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Apr 2024 at 06:12 pm
What does the Gov do if the economy gets squirrely now when
they've already been spending like it's a great depression and
world war combined? I'm scared to ask. I'm afraid the answer
is that we'll just be blown away by their ability to spend even
more and inflate their way out of it, at least until mid
November.
Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Apr 2024 at 05:26 pm
If they are questioning META valuations with that report, MSFT
bulls should be sweating bullets. META is valued much more
reasonably.
META and IBM were trading at similar multiples going into the
print today. Go figure. That tells me IBM has room to get
DESTROYED. But it's just one day and market is in a mood to
make people who were beginning to believe they were geniuses look
dumb (just look at TSLA today). The script on META TSLA could
easily flip tomorrow....or not. I don't see TSLA trading a lot
higher and Meta trading a lot lower...but I could definitely see
the reverse of that happening (in the medium term). Meta has
valuation support compared to much of the other names in the MAG
whatever it is now (4?)
Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Apr 2024 at 05:05 pm
META reported very strong demand from China based advertisers.
Very interesting. They can't use facebook, but they advertise on
the global version anyway. I guess it makes sense I just
didn't see it as a big revenue stream.
Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Apr 2024 at 04:55 pm
Utilities - weird. What's the difference between NEE and NEP? I
always buy NEE, but saw NEP at the top of the list with the same
company name. Is it like GOOG and GOOGL?
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Interesting that VOLD never went
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 11:52 pm
Interesting that VOLD never went positive today. I found the same thing but opposite (positive VOLD on down days) to be the case just about always on down days since the October rally started - internals very rarely confirmed the weakness in price during the uptrend. We'll see this time. Market is likely to be nutty first thing tomorrow with PCE coming in and there is an ungodly amount of Gov cheese in the system which I think always keeps the bias to crashing higher. I saw a headline about an 11 trillion suprise spending figure today but haven't read the details yet (wouldn't surprise me if it's for a single year). That's the thing about Gov spending - it's hard to track and the surprises are typically not to the downside and they are backwards looking these days (they are spending without legislation at the border with private flights, buses, debit cards, etc...that's all finding its way into the system...and it's almost immediate but we only know about it after the fact and wonder why the economic reports seem so goofy and disconnected these days).
I wouldn't beat yourself up.
From SPX down 1.6% today to AH being up almost ...
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 04:38 pm
I wouldn't beat yourself up. Today's action was perfectly designed to trap as many traders as possible, as spectacularly as possible. An AI couldn't have designed a better day for traps if it trained on all of history's market data and all the books on trader psychology ever published.
The one thing I have noticed is that they are taking advantage of the instinct for most people to think hot inflation and higher rates = lower markets. That's not the case but it's a widely held belief so those people have emotional reactions on hot print days and hit the sell button which the smart money takes advantage of knowing that inflation inflates.
This was crazy. Absolutely perfect design.
It never made sense to
From SPX down 1.6% today to AH being up almost ...
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 04:29 pm
It never made sense to be down on hot inflation numbers and weak but not too weak GDP data. It's basically mega cap market nirvana - not to mention Meta also had great earnings. Are we in stagflation? Yeah, probably, but everyone is stuck buying the products and services of the mega caps. They have pricing power and will crush quarter after quarter (I don't count TSLA in the group anymore, even though I'm long).
This is the kind of
Life Insurance folks been doing it for years......new ETFs offering ...
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 02:57 pm
This is the kind of things that FA's have to offer and what that the new ETF's are trying to displace. Honestly, I don't think it will be that hard for the ETF's to win out. Look at how long the average lockup period is! Buffer ETF's can be liquidated with a gain on day 2, if the market has gone up. Hard to compete with that with this old school approach.
Plaza Accord 2.0? There were
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 02:13 pm
Plaza Accord 2.0? There were some meetings recently with Asian finance ministers in DC and the rumor is they are discussing a potential new Plaza Accord. As much as I would hate that kind of theft from the purchasing power of middle and lower class Americans to boost fat cat American companies and Asian countries, I figured nothing would come of it until probably December. Looking at the dollar today relative to the 10 year yield, I'm wondering if maybe they decided to act sooner rather than later? But Yen still weak...hard to say.
This pic briefly describes the conditions that lead to the 1st Plaza Accord. Look familiar?
We did flip green on
we close green? lol that would be fun
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 01:44 pm
We did flip green on SPX OANDA (the session started at 5 yesterday). Still at -0.02% right now.
Market trying to figure out if it's worried more about inflation or growth. If it's inflation, market should go higher, not lower (peasants be damned).
VIX - Looks like weak
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 11:55 am
VIX - Looks like weak divergence, but I'm learning to trust the signals over the eyes (constant battle)
SPX - lost the YTD
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 10:28 am
SPX - lost the YTD VWAP. Next one down is the VWAP from the October bottom (currently at 4870)
CNBC clueless as usual. They
rate cuts now pushed out to December LOL
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 10:14 am
CNBC clueless as usual. They can't figure out why some numbers look so strong but others signal a weak economy. They refuse to look at anything through the most logical filters because it's "political." I mean just state the obvious - the Gov is spending more than ever in history and our border is being flooded with low cost labor like never in history and then work from that baseline forward. A lot of the questions they're asking this morning suddenly have obvious answers. Sometimes you have to say things that make your party potentially look bad if you want to be a financial journalist. But they self censor instead - everyone in the finance world suffers if we can't talk about the actual causes when we have problems.
The US has never and
https://youtu.be/-HmGhnIhxaU?si=gEM4Z1B-AOzSgklz
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 09:25 am
The US has never and will never pay down any debt. It's not the way it works. They service the debt (mostly with printed currency). Dilute the currency which inflates assets prices which reduces the purchasing power of everyone. The wealth of the very wealthy asset holders increase while middle class savings is decimated because they don't have enough assets to keep up. Eventually the debt appears smaller after the inflation. Rinse repeat. We're just on Turbo now and the equation requires at least leveling off spending while waiting for inflation to do it's work.
There are many saying that the US has no choice but to run inflation hot for 8 - 10 years (because reduced spending is not an option, but they don't say that). They're already a couple of years in and will gaslight the crap out of all of us the entire time it's happening by saying inflation is not that bad.
Just hit the buy stop
Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Apr 2024 at 06:53 pm
Just hit the buy stop / short cover 2 days ago. We're in whipsaw territory.
If I would have taken both trades the minute they triggered, it would have been a break even trade. That doesn't suck, but the mean reversion systems clearly perform better at times like these.
What does the Gov do
Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Apr 2024 at 06:12 pm
What does the Gov do if the economy gets squirrely now when they've already been spending like it's a great depression and world war combined? I'm scared to ask. I'm afraid the answer is that we'll just be blown away by their ability to spend even more and inflate their way out of it, at least until mid November.
META
Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Apr 2024 at 06:02 pm
- FBL more like
Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Apr 2024 at 05:42 pm
- FBL more like FML
If they are questioning META
Did Zuck get knocked out in the cage match?
Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Apr 2024 at 05:26 pm
If they are questioning META valuations with that report, MSFT bulls should be sweating bullets. META is valued much more reasonably.
META and IBM were trading at similar multiples going into the print today. Go figure. That tells me IBM has room to get DESTROYED. But it's just one day and market is in a mood to make people who were beginning to believe they were geniuses look dumb (just look at TSLA today). The script on META TSLA could easily flip tomorrow....or not. I don't see TSLA trading a lot higher and Meta trading a lot lower...but I could definitely see the reverse of that happening (in the medium term). Meta has valuation support compared to much of the other names in the MAG whatever it is now (4?)
Haha. Twitter was full of
Did Zuck get knocked out in the cage match?
Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Apr 2024 at 05:23 pm
Haha. Twitter was full of this stuff all day today in the lead up.
META reported very strong demand
Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Apr 2024 at 05:05 pm
META reported very strong demand from China based advertisers. Very interesting. They can't use facebook, but they advertise on the global version anyway. I guess it makes sense I just didn't see it as a big revenue stream.
Utilities - weird. What's the
Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Apr 2024 at 04:55 pm
Utilities - weird. What's the difference between NEE and NEP? I always buy NEE, but saw NEP at the top of the list with the same company name. Is it like GOOG and GOOGL?