Gold has rebounded strongly after speculators dumped following
the January FOMC statement causing a 5 wave impulse move which
pierced through the .618 retracement.
--
The impulse move following the January FOMC statement may
have complicated the corrective wave formation starting in
sep-2012. A bullish count would have the c-wave morphing into an
expanding terminal triangle. It's important that the .618 retrace
of May-Sep price move holds.
The DAX was struggling with downtrend resistance yesterday
probably due to profit takers chasing the price down. China's
Dec-2012 trade figures have just given asian markets a boost
(NIKKEI, ASX200, etc) including the DAX futures. Need to see if
buying interest is maintained overnight with the DAX moving up to
test its post Mar-2009 highs.
Looking at the 3yr chart it's recently broken above
$26.50-$27.50 resistance and may be breaking out from a multi-year
basing pattern. From here $32 looks possible. JMO.
--
Finance companies, Banks, USGovt, USFed all trying to
resurrect sub-prime lending especially in car financing. May well
be succeeding.
DAX recently passed its May 2011 high of 7600. It's now ~14%
away from its Jul 2007 high of 8105 while the S&P500 and DJIA
are ~7% and ~6% away from their Oct 2007 highs respectively.
--
From here the S&P500 has scope to move to the 1500-1510
resistance area. Even though currently only 7% away from the 2007
high, may see another major correction before it gets there.
--
Can't see congress sabotaging the economy and crashing
domestic and world markets by denying the USGovt the ability to
cover its deficit spending through expansion of debt. Another 11th
hour deal over the debt ceiling?
The newly elected Japanese Govt has made it known that it
believes that the underlining problem of the economy is that the
BOJ isn't printing money fast enough. Likely to see more
monetary action from the BOJ (Yen devaluation) and also an
expansion of the fiscal deficit.
Compare the TSX 3 year chart to the stock index of another large
resource exporting nation ($AORD), and that's where its most likely
heading.
--
Australia has a major advantage over Canada being much
closer to China/Asia, quicker and easier to ship compared
to crossing the pacific.
The western ruling elite are becoming more attached to, and
dependent on the magical wonders CB money printing. Can only add
more support for gold.
--
In the first half of 2012 there was so much negativity, with
so many newsletters advising their subscribers to wait for a
certain break through $1500 and catch the dip at $1300. This crowd
may soon give up on $1300 and buy back into the market.
Chart dates from Monday.
The large period of distribution on heavy volume that
occurred between Nov-2010 and Mar-2012 created significant overhead
supply and stranded many investors out of the money. If HUI can put
in another higher low and then break above blue line resistance
than I think that would be long term bullish. The problem is that
index heavy weights NEM, ABX and GG have all been poor
performers and a significant drag on the index.
Many traders are of the view that the markets are tracing out a
b-wave rally with a c-wave decline into Jan. I think funds and
institutions maybe content just to buy the dips here until the
fiscal uncertainies over Govt expenditure are resolved. Markets may
have a sideways to downward bias until a deal is reached.
--
Don't know how long Govt revenue & deficit negotiations
will last, however they may have a bearing on the direction of
markets into January with many traders (PMs) getting more anxious
as negotiations drag on without any progress. I can't see either
side desiring to crash the markets into the January state of the
union address, however can't rule it out.
--
Note that the DAX, FTSE, CAC and the Australian ASX200 are
all pushing towards or above their Sep-12 highs. This fiscal
uncertainty is really holding back US markets.
Internet retailers EBAY, AMZN, PCLN etc have broken out of their
Sep-2012 declines and it's looking like other sectors may follow
leading to a broad market rally into Jan.
--
RGLD appears to be very close to a short term bottom - likely
to rally to resistance at 89.50.
Banks have held up ok in this decline - so far. Previous post
Mar-09 market downturns on US economic woes have seen the banks
lead the decline, usually getting hammered compared to other
sectors.
--
The Mar-Jun decline retraced ~.50 of the rally starting
Oct-11 (.618 retrace of the rally starting Nov-11).
A .50 retrace of the rally starting Jun-12 will meet
trendline support at ~46.5. Previous rallies off support have been
fairly strong.
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DO Daily Chart
Posted by rixx on 24th of Jan 2013 at 01:10 pm
DO appears to have broken out of a symmetrical triangle.
Likely to move towards the top of the channel in the coming weeks. Earnings report out 5-Feb.
RGLD Daily Chart
Posted by rixx on 23rd of Jan 2013 at 03:34 pm
RGLD appears to be forming a triangle. Could break either way, however potential for a bullish reverse H & S pattern.
Gold Futures 5hr Chart
Posted by rixx on 21st of Jan 2013 at 09:58 am
Gold has rebounded strongly after speculators dumped following the January FOMC statement causing a 5 wave impulse move which pierced through the .618 retracement.
--
The impulse move following the January FOMC statement may have complicated the corrective wave formation starting in sep-2012. A bullish count would have the c-wave morphing into an expanding terminal triangle. It's important that the .618 retrace of May-Sep price move holds.
DAX Futures 15min Chart
Posted by rixx on 9th of Jan 2013 at 09:47 pm
The DAX was struggling with downtrend resistance yesterday probably due to profit takers chasing the price down. China's Dec-2012 trade figures have just given asian markets a boost (NIKKEI, ASX200, etc) including the DAX futures. Need to see if buying interest is maintained overnight with the DAX moving up to test its post Mar-2009 highs.
Chinas exports soar as trade surplus-balloons
R2000@879
Posted by rixx on 9th of Jan 2013 at 11:50 am
Smallies looking to push beyond last weeks all time high.
S&P500 Futures Daily Chart
Posted by rixx on 9th of Jan 2013 at 08:36 am
GM Bullish View
GM a TOP?
Posted by rixx on 7th of Jan 2013 at 11:26 am
Looking at the 3yr chart it's recently broken above $26.50-$27.50 resistance and may be breaking out from a multi-year basing pattern. From here $32 looks possible. JMO.
--
Finance companies, Banks, USGovt, USFed all trying to resurrect sub-prime lending especially in car financing. May well be succeeding.
DAX and S&P500 in a race to be the first major index to reclaim 2007 highs
Posted by rixx on 7th of Jan 2013 at 08:38 am
DAX recently passed its May 2011 high of 7600. It's now ~14% away from its Jul 2007 high of 8105 while the S&P500 and DJIA are ~7% and ~6% away from their Oct 2007 highs respectively.
--
From here the S&P500 has scope to move to the 1500-1510 resistance area. Even though currently only 7% away from the 2007 high, may see another major correction before it gets there.
--
Can't see congress sabotaging the economy and crashing domestic and world markets by denying the USGovt the ability to cover its deficit spending through expansion of debt. Another 11th hour deal over the debt ceiling?
NIKKEI Monthly Chart
Posted by rixx on 2nd of Jan 2013 at 03:27 pm
The newly elected Japanese Govt has made it known that it believes that the underlining problem of the economy is that the BOJ isn't printing money fast enough. Likely to see more monetary action from the BOJ (Yen devaluation) and also an expansion of the fiscal deficit.
Helca Mining (HL)
MUX GAP
Posted by rixx on 2nd of Jan 2013 at 11:18 am
Also nice breakout in HL. HL may pullback from here, however it has potential to turn and run all the way to ~6.80.
TSX
Why does the $TSX lag so badly?
Posted by rixx on 2nd of Jan 2013 at 10:53 am
Compare the TSX 3 year chart to the stock index of another large resource exporting nation ($AORD), and that's where its most likely heading.
--
Australia has a major advantage over Canada being much closer to China/Asia, quicker and easier to ship compared to crossing the pacific.
Molycorp Rises / Bloomberg: company could be takeover target
Posted by rixx on 2nd of Jan 2013 at 10:17 am
CBO says Senate deal adds $4 trln to deficit
Posted by rixx on 2nd of Jan 2013 at 09:55 am
CBO says Senate deal adds $4 trln to deficit
The western ruling elite are becoming more attached to, and dependent on the magical wonders CB money printing. Can only add more support for gold.
--
In the first half of 2012 there was so much negativity, with so many newsletters advising their subscribers to wait for a certain break through $1500 and catch the dip at $1300. This crowd may soon give up on $1300 and buy back into the market.
Gold Daily Chart
Posted by rixx on 24th of Dec 2012 at 10:04 am
If gold is tracing out a simple corrective a-b-c Zigzag then this line chart would indicate that the c-wave is nearing completion.
HUI Gold Bugs Index Long Term Chart
Posted by rixx on 13th of Dec 2012 at 09:49 am
Chart dates from Monday.
The large period of distribution on heavy volume that occurred between Nov-2010 and Mar-2012 created significant overhead supply and stranded many investors out of the money. If HUI can put in another higher low and then break above blue line resistance than I think that would be long term bullish. The problem is that index heavy weights NEM, ABX and GG have all been poor performers and a significant drag on the index.
CNBC: Boehner to give fiscal-cliff update around noon today
Posted by rixx on 11th of Dec 2012 at 10:54 am
Traders anxious as negotiations drag on without any progress
Posted by rixx on 10th of Dec 2012 at 09:28 am
Many traders are of the view that the markets are tracing out a b-wave rally with a c-wave decline into Jan. I think funds and institutions maybe content just to buy the dips here until the fiscal uncertainies over Govt expenditure are resolved. Markets may have a sideways to downward bias until a deal is reached.
--
Don't know how long Govt revenue & deficit negotiations will last, however they may have a bearing on the direction of markets into January with many traders (PMs) getting more anxious as negotiations drag on without any progress. I can't see either side desiring to crash the markets into the January state of the union address, however can't rule it out.
--
Note that the DAX, FTSE, CAC and the Australian ASX200 are all pushing towards or above their Sep-12 highs. This fiscal uncertainty is really holding back US markets.
Gold Stock RGLD
Posted by rixx on 29th of Nov 2012 at 02:27 pm
Internet retailers EBAY, AMZN, PCLN etc have broken out of their Sep-2012 declines and it's looking like other sectors may follow leading to a broad market rally into Jan.
--
RGLD appears to be very close to a short term bottom - likely to rally to resistance at 89.50.
US Banking Sector - BKX Daily Chart
Posted by rixx on 13th of Nov 2012 at 08:57 am
Banks have held up ok in this decline - so far. Previous post Mar-09 market downturns on US economic woes have seen the banks lead the decline, usually getting hammered compared to other sectors.
--
The Mar-Jun decline retraced ~.50 of the rally starting Oct-11 (.618 retrace of the rally starting Nov-11).
A .50 retrace of the rally starting Jun-12 will meet trendline support at ~46.5. Previous rallies off support have been fairly strong.
GDXJ 60min Chart
Posted by rixx on 9th of Oct 2012 at 02:49 pm
GDXJ declining back to 200MA on the 60min chart. Lately the STK-60 has been signaling lows. Appears to be forming a triangle.