Small caps weak - today RUT retested last Tuesday's lows.
May need a monthly employment number print at near zero or
negative in order to generate sufficient selling to break
support.
I'm thinking that right now KBH has a higher probability of
moving off support than breaking through it.
Dangerous to short at support unless sector index ready to be
dumped or bad news relating to stock in play.
Also timing - risk of USFed purchasing MBS tomorrow.
--
Good luck with your trade.
Keeping an eye on the small caps which are badly lagging at
the moment. Three events with potential to move the markets are
coming up; GDP numbers, FMOC meeting and July employment
report.
Down after hours and back at support. If it breaks support
tomorrow, should start a decline to next level support. Might
attempt to fill gap beforehand.
Chart from Friday close.
COT should step down through trendlines if we end up having a
deep correction into September.
Beware kick back rallies.
COT earnings release - before open on Friday, August 3, 2012.
--
Many short plays available from Travel and Leisure, Hotels,
Airlines & Restaurant sectors where June-July rally
comparatively weak compared to other sectors. Presumably people cut
back eating out and travel during recessions. Funds reducing
holdings?
With volume waning there's likely to be an opportunity to take a
short position in the next two weeks. The 1st week of Aug could be
the point where bulls capitulate as the FOMC meeting will have
nothing to offer and there's greater chance that the July
employment numbers will surprise to the downside than up.
Chart notes:
1. MACD histogram divergent tops during June-July.
2. Declining volume on last upside move.
3. Instead of a zigzag, SPY/SPX may be forming a sideways
flat/triangle correction since apr-2012.
USD appears to have hit resistance at ~84 yesterday. Should see
a pullback from here and possibly a multi-month decline.
Gold bears were calling for the USD to hit ~91. May still get
there but will need a serious escalation of the crisis in Europe in
the coming weeks.
--
At 84 the USD had appreciated ~15% over the past 9 months
alone. Has the USFed intervened to put the brakes on the dollar's
appreciation?
US exports mostly compete with Japan and Europe, not China.
Having started the currency wars, is the USFed in the business of
losing it?
--
The EU just issued $30B emergency bailout for Spanish banks
while it works to put together its various bailout Funds. For now a
major catastrophe appears to have been averted.
The show is about to switch to the US where in the coming
months the focus will on uncertainty over elections, economic
stagnation, company earnings, federal debt ceiling, Taxageddon,
dysfunctional congress, etc.
--
The USD chart dates from Weds. There is some support for
gold. Note that in Oct-11 gold traded at ~1520 when the USD index
rallied to 80. Yesterday gold traded at ~1555 when the index
rallied to 84. Approaching bullish Aug-Nov season. Even if gold
suffered breakdown to ~1450 it may see a very strong bounce from
that level.
Two of the strongest stock markets have been the US and UK where
central bank QE has been the most expansive. Flight from Europe has
further exacerbated US & UK negative bond yeilds. As well as
utilities, US investors have been chasing yeild in large cap US
multinational stocks. Many DJIA stocks payout 4-6% dividends.
As dividend payouts are supported by strong/reliable
earnings, need to see if EU economic downturn and a stronger dollar
has had an impact on multinational revenues and profits. Investors
may sell down stocks that report lower or flat earnings. Both Ford
and GM stock prices have fallen past 3 months with warnings of
weak sales in Europe impairing earnings.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
RUT Underperforming
Posted by rixx on 2nd of Aug 2012 at 03:13 pm
Small caps weak - today RUT retested last Tuesday's lows.
May need a monthly employment number print at near zero or negative in order to generate sufficient selling to break support.
RE: KBH breaking to the down side
Posted by rixx on 31st of Jul 2012 at 02:22 pm
I'm thinking that right now KBH has a higher probability of moving off support than breaking through it.
Dangerous to short at support unless sector index ready to be dumped or bad news relating to stock in play.
Also timing - risk of USFed purchasing MBS tomorrow.
--
Good luck with your trade.
Geithner on the road prior to FOMC meeting
Posted by rixx on 27th of Jul 2012 at 01:55 pm
I was expecting a trip by Geithner to Beijing to signal the next USFed print job. This is interesting.
Geithner to meet Germany's Schaeuble
Thank for posting. The comments
Rubbish?
Posted by rixx on 27th of Jul 2012 at 08:09 am
Thank for posting. The comments make for interesting reading also - ie. copper theft as an indicator of demand.
Yeah, lately the ECB and
SPX Futures 15min Chart
Posted by rixx on 26th of Jul 2012 at 04:13 pm
Yeah, lately the ECB and USFed have been acting like a tag team, squeezing the shorts whenever the market dips.
SPX Futures 15min Chart
Posted by rixx on 26th of Jul 2012 at 03:33 pm
Has the potential to move within L1 & L2 then break in either direction.
--
US:GDP tomorrow 8:30 AM ET
Yeah, last time it was
IAG SLV ARZ are moving nicely...
Posted by rixx on 26th of Jul 2012 at 10:12 am
Yeah, last time it was GG.
Juniors (GDXJ) up 2.8%
Small Caps Lagging
Posted by rixx on 26th of Jul 2012 at 10:07 am
Keeping an eye on the small caps which are badly lagging at the moment. Three events with potential to move the markets are coming up; GDP numbers, FMOC meeting and July employment report.
Apple down 6% after hours
Posted by rixx on 24th of Jul 2012 at 04:43 pm
QE rumour
SPY 1 min, 5 min
Posted by rixx on 24th of Jul 2012 at 04:30 pm
There was a QE rumour out a couple of weeks ago about them gearing up to buy mortgage bonds. They need to do something about the rising dollar.
CSCO Short Play
Posted by rixx on 23rd of Jul 2012 at 06:12 pm
Cisco laying off 2% of workforce
Down after hours and back at support. If it breaks support tomorrow, should start a decline to next level support. Might attempt to fill gap beforehand.
SCHW Short Play
Posted by rixx on 23rd of Jul 2012 at 01:20 pm
A lot of the broking and trading houses appear to be in decline. ie JEF
COT Short Play
Posted by rixx on 23rd of Jul 2012 at 11:12 am
Chart from Friday close.
COT should step down through trendlines if we end up having a deep correction into September.
Beware kick back rallies.
COT earnings release - before open on Friday, August 3, 2012.
--
Many short plays available from Travel and Leisure, Hotels, Airlines & Restaurant sectors where June-July rally comparatively weak compared to other sectors. Presumably people cut back eating out and travel during recessions. Funds reducing holdings?
BWLD, BJRI, SBUX, PNRA, MAR, EXPE, LUV
SPX Futures - Diamond Top 30min Chart
Posted by rixx on 20th of Jul 2012 at 12:07 pm
Just posting as it's a text book diamond top on the 30min chart.
SPY Daily Chart - Unfilled Gap from June
Posted by rixx on 20th of Jul 2012 at 10:26 am
With volume waning there's likely to be an opportunity to take a short position in the next two weeks. The 1st week of Aug could be the point where bulls capitulate as the FOMC meeting will have nothing to offer and there's greater chance that the July employment numbers will surprise to the downside than up.
Chart notes:
1. MACD histogram divergent tops during June-July.
2. Declining volume on last upside move.
3. Instead of a zigzag, SPY/SPX may be forming a sideways flat/triangle correction since apr-2012.
USD & Gold Comments
Posted by rixx on 13th of Jul 2012 at 11:43 am
USD appears to have hit resistance at ~84 yesterday. Should see a pullback from here and possibly a multi-month decline.
Gold bears were calling for the USD to hit ~91. May still get there but will need a serious escalation of the crisis in Europe in the coming weeks.
--
At 84 the USD had appreciated ~15% over the past 9 months alone. Has the USFed intervened to put the brakes on the dollar's appreciation?
US exports mostly compete with Japan and Europe, not China. Having started the currency wars, is the USFed in the business of losing it?
--
The EU just issued $30B emergency bailout for Spanish banks while it works to put together its various bailout Funds. For now a major catastrophe appears to have been averted.
The show is about to switch to the US where in the coming months the focus will on uncertainty over elections, economic stagnation, company earnings, federal debt ceiling, Taxageddon, dysfunctional congress, etc.
--
The USD chart dates from Weds. There is some support for gold. Note that in Oct-11 gold traded at ~1520 when the USD index rallied to 80. Yesterday gold traded at ~1555 when the index rallied to 84. Approaching bullish Aug-Nov season. Even if gold suffered breakdown to ~1450 it may see a very strong bounce from that level.
BPT GDX Renko False signal?
Goldcorp lowered guidance (GG). Down $2.50. Might help to get GDX below ...
Posted by rixx on 11th of Jul 2012 at 05:27 pm
GDX down 2.1% today (due to index heavy weight GG?), however GDXJ only 0.1%. Traders should assess impact.
Gold Futures 5 Hour Chart
Posted by rixx on 6th of Jul 2012 at 10:58 am
Another triangle appears to be unfolding in Gold. Suspect an upside break, however a downside break will likely take it down to ~1450.
Q2 Earnings
Posted by rixx on 6th of Jul 2012 at 10:48 am
How to crack Wall Street’s earnings code
I think those companies that derive a significant amount of earnings from offshore operations may be under pressure.
2nd QTR earnings
Posted by rixx on 3rd of Jul 2012 at 10:56 am
Two of the strongest stock markets have been the US and UK where central bank QE has been the most expansive. Flight from Europe has further exacerbated US & UK negative bond yeilds. As well as utilities, US investors have been chasing yeild in large cap US multinational stocks. Many DJIA stocks payout 4-6% dividends.
As dividend payouts are supported by strong/reliable earnings, need to see if EU economic downturn and a stronger dollar has had an impact on multinational revenues and profits. Investors may sell down stocks that report lower or flat earnings. Both Ford and GM stock prices have fallen past 3 months with warnings of weak sales in Europe impairing earnings.