We wonder why it's choppy - https://www.screencast.com/t/FPohOgKae75

Gold moving towards support zone between 1798 and 1810. 50ma on weekly around 1809. Think we may at least get a responsive bounce from that area of some degree.

Steve, Real nice call on levels last night.

For all you BOIL lovers, the $5 Mar24 put trading around $1. Would give you a cost of 4 on stock or 20% return for about 6 weeks if it stays above

Nice

Based on the way it's acting if Natgas did fall back to monthly lows about a point lower, BOIL may go to 2-3 range. Not sure how they calculate but it's dropped almost 5 points in roughly a 1 point NG move.

SOXL having a nice move past 2 days

Natgas still moving lower today.  In a recession, not as much demand needed.

Trading Natgas - I've seen a lot of posts on here lately about trading Natgas. I've been trading it for over 20 years mainly via futures, occasionally with UNG and options.

I'd like to show you a few charts. As you can see, we're entering one of the worse times of the year price wise. When you look at the weekly chart you can see support at the 2.50ish level and then down close to the $2 level.  Should we maybe get a bounce there. perhaps. But when you look at the monthly chart, it's even worse. Here you can see the 2.50ish support, but then we're looking at 1.59. Also notice on monthly, it can stay down there and under 2.50 for months. So just be wary of catching a falling knife.

Couple of thoughts. There is plenty of natural gas. We're swimming in it as is Russia. A lot of the price action past year has been more of a dislocation problem versus an actual shortage. Worldwide gas is coming under political pressure and we all know how long that can carry on. Last but not least, we've had relatively mild winter worldwide. 

Best way to trade. Of course the futures are going to give you the most immediate results. However, that's probably not going to line up with many peoples risk parameters. BOIL 's leverage and time decay can be a problem. You need to be right or right out fairly quick. UNG is the safest, plus you have opportunity to generate some income with it via options, which BOIL has also. The best opportunity that I see and what I'm doing besides future contracts is buying call spreads on UNG. Because IV is low on it, can get options relatively cheap. Wouldn't even entertain anything less than the July expiration. For example based on closing prices you can buy a July 21 $9 call for around $2 and sell a $14 against it for approx. $1.30.  What I think even better is the Jan 19 2024 $9 call only about .75 more for around $2.75 and you can sell the $14 call against for a net difference of about 1.40, that's almost a year out. I just picked a $5 spread to keep it simple. Pick your own poison on that, but either would give you a 300% percent return if you're correct on your long with relatively little downside risk, that's at least a defined risk. Hope this helps.

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Earnings reports coming in pretty strong this am

We should all call our power company and see if they're going to reduce rates now that Natgas almost free, lol

Futures up 10%. Sweet

It gets much lower and they'll be paying us to use it.

See dotted line, back to top of the box on SPX  and 5 RSI is like 5, lol- https://screenrec.com/share/wWGuo4FILb   

SPX made it all the way down into the gap. The 50ma on daily not shown but comes in at 3923 with the bottom of gap right below.   https://screenrec.com/share/5nB8MTRSms 

Matt, is this move part of the ABC correction or do you think it's the start of something bigger?

Almost made a round trip now. Gold and Euro  didn't like news, they've both dropped quick.

Wow, heck of a spike on BOJ news. Not sure why the large spike in all the futures, their rate came in exactly as forecast, Caught nice short at 4025 though

SPX took out 200ma on daily

Gold little weak today