It is very difficult to buy and hold through most primary trends
(especially volatile bears) although if the call is right you will
ultimately be rewarded. I personally don't have the
temperament for it. With technical analysis all we have is what our
charts show until it changes, I can't hold until it changes.
Now if you look at the single MA monthly chart you can see that
when price broke the MA that afterward in both 01 and 08, price at
some point moved all the way up to retouch the MA. That's a
whole lot of faith and daily losses to move all the way up there
without throwing in the towel. I can't do it. Maybe you
can.
So what I do, is try to trade my daily charts and be more
aggressive on down moves and less so on up moves. I won't get
all of it but it keeps me safe and keeps me from throwing in the
towel just before the market re-tanks,
As I recall, in 2008 Matt and Steve did not have all the
indicators listed as they do now, but you can bet they were all
pointed down then. They would not have all triggered in the
2010 correction.
I've been looking at this one myself. Here's my take FWIW.
By all rights the area should provide support, and since it's
a fresh retest should provide a nice bounce. Unfortunately
the darn thing is in a strong wave 3 down and given the
intermediate inclinations of the market, I've decided that I
need proof that it can stop before I will try to get in front of
it.
The financials and some oils seem destined to test the 2009
lows. I see no reason this won't also, thus I remain
cautious. Others will try and may succeed. A tight stop
can save you. But, Me, I guess I need proof.
The red line is the bottom of the flag on the daily. If
wave 3 is nearly done wave 4 projects right about there or a little
higher as illustrated by the 3 sets of hash marks which are
retracement areas.
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SPX 60
Posted by johnc on 12th of Oct 2011 at 11:43 am
Interesting to note that the oscillator seems to confirm a wave 3 on the 60 minute- we may not have even hit 4 of 3 yet.
MW reports Slovakia delaying vote. Unclear when they will
Posted by johnc on 11th of Oct 2011 at 01:20 pm
Thanks RP. Right on time.
Posted by johnc on 11th of Oct 2011 at 01:10 pm
Not worth much, but I'll share my thoughts
The Big Picture...
Posted by johnc on 7th of Oct 2011 at 09:04 am
It is very difficult to buy and hold through most primary trends (especially volatile bears) although if the call is right you will ultimately be rewarded. I personally don't have the temperament for it. With technical analysis all we have is what our charts show until it changes, I can't hold until it changes.
Now if you look at the single MA monthly chart you can see that when price broke the MA that afterward in both 01 and 08, price at some point moved all the way up to retouch the MA. That's a whole lot of faith and daily losses to move all the way up there without throwing in the towel. I can't do it. Maybe you can.
SPX Monthly
So what I do, is try to trade my daily charts and be more aggressive on down moves and less so on up moves. I won't get all of it but it keeps me safe and keeps me from throwing in the towel just before the market re-tanks,
Hope that made any sense.
john
Ford
Posted by johnc on 5th of Oct 2011 at 02:48 pm
Spy 60 Minute GET count
Posted by johnc on 5th of Oct 2011 at 10:42 am
If it happens they'll probably just do a reverse 1:10 split
BAC.... awfully close to $5 mark
Posted by johnc on 4th of Oct 2011 at 07:54 pm
Nice Support for OIH in this region
Posted by johnc on 4th of Oct 2011 at 01:15 pm
As I recall, in 2008
long term indicators
Posted by johnc on 4th of Oct 2011 at 06:42 am
As I recall, in 2008 Matt and Steve did not have all the indicators listed as they do now, but you can bet they were all pointed down then. They would not have all triggered in the 2010 correction.
Daily XLF
Posted by johnc on 3rd of Oct 2011 at 03:51 pm
XLF... "Could" ...take over a Positive leadership role if this divergence should continue and the wedge plays out. Hey, anything is possible.
MS and GS Monthly - Amazing.
Posted by johnc on 3rd of Oct 2011 at 03:16 pm
FCX
FCX....
Posted by johnc on 2nd of Oct 2011 at 12:36 pm
I've been looking at this one myself. Here's my take FWIW. By all rights the area should provide support, and since it's a fresh retest should provide a nice bounce. Unfortunately the darn thing is in a strong wave 3 down and given the intermediate inclinations of the market, I've decided that I need proof that it can stop before I will try to get in front of it.
The financials and some oils seem destined to test the 2009 lows. I see no reason this won't also, thus I remain cautious. Others will try and may succeed. A tight stop can save you. But, Me, I guess I need proof.
john
Thx Steve. Very Helpful. Should have done it myself by now but I hadn't
Sector Review
Posted by johnc on 1st of Oct 2011 at 08:08 pm
Constantly on CNBC Today.
MS
Posted by johnc on 30th of Sep 2011 at 02:45 pm
CDS spreads widening and China and French exposure seems to be the theme
SPY 30 w Get Count
Posted by johnc on 28th of Sep 2011 at 01:14 pm
Don't really like the wick down to the wave 4 but more or less like a desc. triangle
Ditto. I admire the markets ability to leave you hanging
If anyone could tell me with 100 % certainty which ...
Posted by johnc on 23rd of Sep 2011 at 03:55 pm
There is local support from August that still needs to be worked through
Bear Flag
Posted by johnc on 23rd of Sep 2011 at 02:21 pm
In addition this looks like a smaller degree wave 4 on my GET 15 minute charts.
Get 60 Minute SPY
Posted by johnc on 22nd of Sep 2011 at 12:03 pm
The red line is the bottom of the flag on the daily. If wave 3 is nearly done wave 4 projects right about there or a little higher as illustrated by the 3 sets of hash marks which are retracement areas.
Not a bad plan. Good spot for a possible bounce.
1121 then bounce to set up big HS?
Posted by johnc on 22nd of Sep 2011 at 11:50 am
Hmmm
Posted by johnc on 21st of Sep 2011 at 03:48 pm