If you look at this monthly xlf count and are used to looking at wave 4's on Advanced Get and the Oscillator below - all of it jives to be a probable wave 4 with a 5th wave down still coming.  Now, I won't get into whether it's the right count, but at this point in time (to me) it is until it's not. The 2 blue shaded area to the bottom right is called a Make or Break line.  That would be a probable target for the wave 5.  Pretty ugly right?  Of course, wave 5's can end different ways and can be truncated.  

One more interesting point is (now that we can see more clearly) look how the financials at least tie into the huge wave 3 of '08.   They appear right now,at least, to only be corrective of the 3. 

I'm thinking 1030-1060 range is more likely.  But who knows maybe we can quit falling long enough to go sideways here.

I'm not so sure I agree.  !4 trillion dollars is a whole lot of cash given there are only 320 million people in the US and with real unfunded liabilities of 60 trillion with ss, medicare, and medicaid it's even more ridiculous.  I think a wake up call is needed and I'll bet there was a huge amount of pressure on S&P not to make the call from the government.  Just my opinion and that's all it is -an opinion.

There are two things that I do that undermine my trading, right now.  I am very good at seeing what is coming and often have call right way ahead of the curve - but because I often see it too early- I'm often TOO EARLY in implementing it.  Or even worse I get the move and timing right and then find myself trying to play every squiggle within the bigger move, which invariably tosses me out of the move entirely and leaves me behind scratching my head.   It's not easy to stay in a bigger move especially when the market in volatile, major news is constantly flowing, and support and resistance are always near by.

In the final analysis,  I believe everything depends on time frame in trading.  Very short term traders have to be ready for moves that happen in a few minute time frames.  But since I am trading time frames where the trade stretches days to hopefully weeks then I must find a way to chill and ignore the gyrations within the bigger move. Waiting for my predetermined signals seems to be the only way to do that. 

As an aside, I realize that I am not good at swimming upstream(counter-trend).  That's a very tough game.  It's much easier for me to flow with the trend.  That will be a rule I will not break.

Hi, my name is John. I'm a right-aholic.  Being right about what is coming is not the problem.   Being too early and not following my trading rules is. I'm trying very hard to be profitable by being more patient.  I now realize that being right is an asset but it is keeping me from being more profitable.    I will strive to control my emotions and follow my trading plan and I will wait for pre-determined signals to enter and leave my positions.

I keep trying.

john

Doesn't it look like it is going to complete a wave 5 from the '09 lows?  Looks like it has a better than average chance now !!!

we just have to make the market start falling apart?  Oh boy, are we screwed...

Rule number one: All traders must have  their own written plan for tradingthat includes their trading strategies, set ups, exits, risk etc.  The plan has to suit your lifestyle, psychology, time frame, and is hopefully profitable.  

It is difficult to trade somebody else's plan.  At best we can share things about the overall market,  share some trade ideas. Catch something that you didn't catch on your own and get a different perspective on the market than just your own.  That information is valuable.  But, what you do with it depends on your trading plan.  So, if you don't have your own trading plan, that should be step number one.

It will help you immensely as you move forward.  Please don't take this as criticism.  It is not meant to be.  I didn't get it either until I had my own trading plan and rules in place.  The net is full of information about developing your trading plan.  It will take a lot of time but as you develop your own set of rules your profits should increase dramatically.

Maybe not in this particular case.... but there are folks trading all different time frames and strategies here.   What might not look good for me swinging for a few days might look good to somebody else day trading or scalping, for instance.  Also, you never know what kind of strategy somebody is using and some guys are probably just betting on a bounce.  We're certainly due.  I do remember a recent bear market where that strategy didn't work so well, though.  Anyway, if you stick around you might learn a few things and I'll bet you like it here.

Not worth a darn thing but, I think we should get Matt's corrective bounce here.  But...since I'm more cautious about these things - I'll probably just wait and short the bounce on the other side in a few days.  

As for the bill.  It looks like a crap deal to me and I think a lot of traders will see it that way no matter if it is passed this evening or not.

Biofuels area.  Particularly strong today over TL.  Recent IPO.  Might put it on your pay attention to list. 

I doubt that satisfies anybody especially the rating agencies.  156 billion saved in interest because of the overall decrease in spending.  Looks like the bears win this round.

I just recently opened an account at IB. I'm trying  to get used to their Trader Workstation.  They don't have a clear (to me) short sale order.  Since naked short sales are a no-no,  do you have to physically set up a borrow order for the shares before you short sell on their system?  Any help would be appreciated.  Thanks in advance.. 

I don't know the protocol but I think they are running out of time to have something firm in place by Monday (yes, the debt ceiling).  If  they can't I want to hold a little short positions that I have over the weekend. If they  can, then I will go flat today sometime.  What's the right answer?  Thanks.

Here you go.  Possible target -support at 50 with confluence of 200 D MA

Looking back to the weekly this looks more like a breakout of the bigger weekly 4.

I have no idea whether this plays out, but the GET count seems to support the possibility of a zig-zag wave 4 move that measures out here (red lines).  Maybe watch it a bit just in case.

BPENER