but his top count was a 4th wave triangle which didn't occur so then his ALT count kicked in.He seems a great wave counter but he hasn't been right .Although he is the biggest bear he was still expecting a new high or truncated 5th a  week or so  back which in retrospect had already occurred!His work on the long bond is really interesting as he talks about rising yield deflation.He has been calling for a turn to higher rates for some time and the end of a 30 year bond bull.Monday may well see the start of that move and buying TBT may be timely.If rates are starting to rise then 1050 seems a very modest lower target.I doubt Daneric sees 1050 as the end.Maybe just the end of 1 of 5 down!

I personally had thought of a 10% stop loss for  the system.Yep Iknow that is not in the system but that was my personal risk management plan.

Within the system can you indicate if there is a likely point where the towel is thrown in if a bounce doesn't occur.Your example above was still long at neg 15% so I am getting the feeling that it could have been worse.

I am asking simply because I am trying to stay with the system but  am also  trying to incorporate a bit of risk management I guess.

Any extra info would be appreciated.

IMHO if this closes here with a long legged hammer then I would see no retest.Personally it we close back above support as we may with a nice hammer candle then I would be looking to get long tomorrow around the body of the hammer with probably a stop about 50 (to  70%) down the leg of the hammer.If it eats much more than 50% of the  hammer then it is highly suspect IMO.I would not necessarily expect a higher close tomorrow even if today is a nice hammer.A narrow range day with price action around the head would be fine with me but confirmation would be a close about the candle high IF today is a hammer candle

But the broader $WLSH is not supportive of this count IMHO as the first (1) ,(2) is not valid as (2) is higher than (1) on the $WLSH so I wonder if this will prove correct.Maybe just another divergence of course.Anyway  the $WLSH situation is something to be aware of.

Bottom line 47% of US citizens pay no income tax and 51% accept handouts of some sort.Is it 44 million who get food stamps??I believe they are the numbers.To me that says who is willing to throw them all  out when really they all are supportive of govt largesse.They are takers not givers!.The social welfare state is on the way out  here in europe(where I am) and no doubt will be over in  the US in the near future.As Margaret Thatcher said..the problem with socialism is that you finally run out of other people's money.......So true!!!I love that quote.We need a reset worldwide but no one is willing to push the reset button unfortunately.

I had better stop my rant  before Matt has a crack at me!

stockcharts shows the SPY 200 day at 127.67.Does anyone with better understanding know which to trust?Frankly I use the $SPX(as shown in Steve's chart) not spy 200 day as the line in the sand