fyi, McClellan's weekly missive is about GOLD COT data. looking
for a bounce akin to back in June 2013 when COT data was at
similiar levels.
"...One of the big fears that is voiced about gold is that the
presumptive end to QE will be bad for gold prices because the Fed
will stop printing excess money. But what those voices seem to
forget is that QE has not been all that helpful to gold over the
past couple of years. Gold topped at $1900/oz in 2011 when the
Fed's balance sheet was smaller than it is today, and that increase
in the balance sheet since then has not stopped gold from falling.
So if the end of QE is really a bad factor for gold, then why was
the continuation of QE since 2011 not helpful for gold?..."
I'm in your boat, own it around same level (3/26/13 post, thank
you ghosttrader for posting), hanging on for dear life, enjoying
the rocket ride. maybe it will crash and burn before i sell
it, but for now, i'm waiting for it to do something wrong, either
fundamentally or technically. I didn't buy enough shares
to do damage if it failed, but enough to enjoy watching the %
increase since purchase.
markets will follow historical pattern and sell off into
mid-month (based on this 'end of tapering' nonsense), which just
happens to be the FOMC meeting ending on the 18th (2 days before
quad witching) at which time they 'will' reaffirm their
do-nothing-yet stance. this in turns sets up the santa clause
rally. I sure hope my crystal ball is right this time
around..
good trading. (FYI - i'm not
taking my eyes off the charts, just in case)
if you recall my post on this subject in the last week, please
note that McClellan wrote about the same pattern with more specific
dates in his weekly missive (sent out today). good trading and
happy thanksgiving.
decided i like the odds, with a caveat of course. basically i'm
a bit of a chicken, so i took the trade with a twist.
I executed the following when the etf hit 21.67 (closing
the open gap up). sold dec 6, 2013, 21 strike puts @ $0.27.
standstill ROR is ~55%. i just couldn't resist after reading the
posted stats from Matt and looking at the closing rsi2. good
trading.
i know there are lots of chart comparisons out there. but i saw
this and went ????. i ran a correlation on the data using excel. it
comes out at 97.4% as of today. good trading and watch out
below. someone please check my work if you can. dates all
posted.
this rate would be for deposits held by ECB on behalf of Euro
Banks. in the US banks recieve 0.25% for their trillions on deposit
with the FED. In order to get the US money 'invested' in the
economy the FED would need to move that rate closer to zero.
keep in mind it pays more to invest with the FED than to buy UST
Bills with a 0.10% 6 month rate (money kept in tbills or at the fed
count 100% in solvency ratios). for Euroland if they go to a
negative rate they are 'expecting/hoping' that the Euro Banks will
lend the money (or invest it in Euro land bonds) rather than keep
it (safe with no principle risk)on deposit. as Bernanke has been
saying, both the FED and ECB are trying to get the banks (and the
public) to put on more risk (vs safe) trades.
blame it on Venezuela: military dispatched (by President) to
take over a retail chain because they are charging too much for
merchandise. not sure how that could happen, inflation in october
was only 50% (annualized)
figure i'd post another of my put ideas, selling march 2014, 15
strike puts (~21% OTM) @ $0.65 yields 12.7% standstill (could
be a few cents early on this one though). technically 15 has
been support ~ 6 times (this is the 6th) since a gap above 15
in oct of 2011. good trading
someday i'll have to figure out how to post a chart, but in the
meantime, i like the looks of the long term bottoming action here
(can you count how many times the 35/37 range has held since
2011?). sold march '14 35's @ $1.38. of course they could have
some 'issues' down the road selling their generics, but then again,
with their 3.35% div. and basis of 33.72 if i get assigned (my
standstill ROR is 11.2%). i'll live with it. good trading.
incredible, largest ever recorded. Category 5 (and then some).
sustained winds @ 195 gust to 235. landfall in a few hours in
central Phillipines. duck and cover.... wonder where it heads
next????
that's what the mute button is for! it's just as bad on
Bloomberg TV as it is elsewhere. I guess their all hoping for a
'story'.
. what a waste of airtime...
Just had an old pop-up reminder, it says seasonality for the
last 2 trading days of October and first 3 of November are a net
positive for the market. but i haven't seen an update to those
stats. hmmmm. think i'll sell some more puts....
they have ATP pro and ATP Beta (I use both), it is good enough,
but not even remotely like Ninja. i have been using the ATP
platform since 2001. i also use the freecharts website if that
gives you a clue as to what i think of the quality of their charts
(and that is vastly improved since the introduction of ATP Beta).
if you do use Fidelity, and your overall account size is large
enough (whatever that means) make sure you are hooked up with the
active trading desk..fwiw.
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COT data - GOLD
GDX my scenario will be one more flush down as soon as tomorrow with big job number. Commercials are ready and we are close to oversold on daily chart. Good luck to all.
Posted by hazbin1 on 6th of Dec 2013 at 03:03 pm
fyi, McClellan's weekly missive is about GOLD COT data. looking for a bounce akin to back in June 2013 when COT data was at similiar levels.
"...One of the big fears that is voiced about gold is that the presumptive end to QE will be bad for gold prices because the Fed will stop printing excess money. But what those voices seem to forget is that QE has not been all that helpful to gold over the past couple of years. Gold topped at $1900/oz in 2011 when the Fed's balance sheet was smaller than it is today, and that increase in the balance sheet since then has not stopped gold from falling. So if the end of QE is really a bad factor for gold, then why was the continuation of QE since 2011 not helpful for gold?..."
good trading.
GALE
Does any one have any thoughts on technical condition of ...
Posted by hazbin1 on 5th of Dec 2013 at 01:20 pm
I'm in your boat, own it around same level (3/26/13 post, thank you ghosttrader for posting), hanging on for dear life, enjoying the rocket ride. maybe it will crash and burn before i sell it, but for now, i'm waiting for it to do something wrong, either fundamentally or technically. I didn't buy enough shares to do damage if it failed, but enough to enjoy watching the % increase since purchase.
in a 'perfect world'...
Gold pop
Posted by hazbin1 on 4th of Dec 2013 at 02:19 pm
markets will follow historical pattern and sell off into mid-month (based on this 'end of tapering' nonsense), which just happens to be the FOMC meeting ending on the 18th (2 days before quad witching) at which time they 'will' reaffirm their do-nothing-yet stance. this in turns sets up the santa clause rally. I sure hope my crystal ball is right this time around.. good trading. (FYI - i'm not taking my eyes off the charts, just in case)
yup, symbol changed today for UUUU
Posted by hazbin1 on 4th of Dec 2013 at 09:58 am
and did you notice that as of 11/5/13 there was a 1 for 50 split? hmmm, i too shall only watch from the sidelines on this one.
chart pattern 1929 vs 2013
Posted by hazbin1 on 27th of Nov 2013 at 07:48 pm
if you recall my post on this subject in the last week, please note that McClellan wrote about the same pattern with more specific dates in his weekly missive (sent out today). good trading and happy thanksgiving.
gdx - in for the trade
Posted by hazbin1 on 27th of Nov 2013 at 10:10 am
decided i like the odds, with a caveat of course. basically i'm a bit of a chicken, so i took the trade with a twist. I executed the following when the etf hit 21.67 (closing the open gap up). sold dec 6, 2013, 21 strike puts @ $0.27. standstill ROR is ~55%. i just couldn't resist after reading the posted stats from Matt and looking at the closing rsi2. good trading.
GDX - rsi 2
gdx daily below 1%
Posted by hazbin1 on 26th of Nov 2013 at 08:46 pm
and the question is did it close below 1%?
is a chart really worth a 1000 words?
Posted by hazbin1 on 21st of Nov 2013 at 10:33 am
i know there are lots of chart comparisons out there. but i saw this and went ????. i ran a correlation on the data using excel. it comes out at 97.4% as of today. good trading and watch out below. someone please check my work if you can. dates all posted.
negative deposit rates
Bloomberg Reporting ECB Said to Weigh Minus 0.1% Deposit Rate ...
Posted by hazbin1 on 20th of Nov 2013 at 11:11 am
this rate would be for deposits held by ECB on behalf of Euro Banks. in the US banks recieve 0.25% for their trillions on deposit with the FED. In order to get the US money 'invested' in the economy the FED would need to move that rate closer to zero. keep in mind it pays more to invest with the FED than to buy UST Bills with a 0.10% 6 month rate (money kept in tbills or at the fed count 100% in solvency ratios). for Euroland if they go to a negative rate they are 'expecting/hoping' that the Euro Banks will lend the money (or invest it in Euro land bonds) rather than keep it (safe with no principle risk)on deposit. as Bernanke has been saying, both the FED and ECB are trying to get the banks (and the public) to put on more risk (vs safe) trades.
emerging mkts
EMB -- emerging market bonds
Posted by hazbin1 on 12th of Nov 2013 at 03:37 pm
blame it on Venezuela: military dispatched (by President) to take over a retail chain because they are charging too much for merchandise. not sure how that could happen, inflation in october was only 50% (annualized)
SCSS
Posted by hazbin1 on 11th of Nov 2013 at 09:43 am
figure i'd post another of my put ideas, selling march 2014, 15 strike puts (~21% OTM) @ $0.65 yields 12.7% standstill (could be a few cents early on this one though). technically 15 has been support ~ 6 times (this is the 6th) since a gap above 15 in oct of 2011. good trading
may it continue to outperform
GDX
Posted by hazbin1 on 8th of Nov 2013 at 03:50 pm
through the next 2 months would be good, i've been building short put positions on many of the PM names and i'd really rather not be long the stocks.
Teva -Selling puts
Posted by hazbin1 on 8th of Nov 2013 at 09:53 am
someday i'll have to figure out how to post a chart, but in the meantime, i like the looks of the long term bottoming action here (can you count how many times the 35/37 range has held since 2011?). sold march '14 35's @ $1.38. of course they could have some 'issues' down the road selling their generics, but then again, with their 3.35% div. and basis of 33.72 if i get assigned (my standstill ROR is 11.2%). i'll live with it. good trading.
Super typhoon in Philippines
Posted by hazbin1 on 7th of Nov 2013 at 03:55 pm
incredible, largest ever recorded. Category 5 (and then some). sustained winds @ 195 gust to 235. landfall in a few hours in central Phillipines. duck and cover.... wonder where it heads next????
babbling on
Is it me??
Posted by hazbin1 on 7th of Nov 2013 at 10:41 am
that's what the mute button is for! it's just as bad on Bloomberg TV as it is elsewhere. I guess their all hoping for a 'story'. . what a waste of airtime...
Israeli Planes Struck Military Base in Syria, CNN Reports
Posted by hazbin1 on 31st of Oct 2013 at 03:09 pm
last time nobody cared, is this time different?
Gold Price seasonality
Posted by hazbin1 on 31st of Oct 2013 at 12:02 pm
Thought this might be of interest, although not updated for 2011/2012. (source is US GLobal Investors) good trading.
could be some truth there
Here's a few charts
Posted by hazbin1 on 28th of Oct 2013 at 12:11 pm
Just had an old pop-up reminder, it says seasonality for the last 2 trading days of October and first 3 of November are a net positive for the market. but i haven't seen an update to those stats. hmmmm. think i'll sell some more puts....
free data feed
Open Call: Brokers supporting Ninja Trader, time 4 a change
Posted by hazbin1 on 25th of Oct 2013 at 09:52 am
broker partners are listed on the website
Fidelity trading platform
Open Call: Brokers supporting Ninja Trader, time 4 a change
Posted by hazbin1 on 25th of Oct 2013 at 09:45 am
they have ATP pro and ATP Beta (I use both), it is good enough, but not even remotely like Ninja. i have been using the ATP platform since 2001. i also use the freecharts website if that gives you a clue as to what i think of the quality of their charts (and that is vastly improved since the introduction of ATP Beta). if you do use Fidelity, and your overall account size is large enough (whatever that means) make sure you are hooked up with the active trading desk..fwiw.