Tom, now I see the SPY trading system position sticky has been removed.  From everything I can tell your post that the system went 100% short today (3/6/12)  was an error.  I sure hope you meant to post that the system went long!  My alerts on my message system said LONG.  I went long.  I still have time to change it if you repost.

I took this as a long.  I got to get over to eTrade and change this in AH.  Crap!

I would be very happy to see 1370.57 as a golden entry for a short as the wave 5 high(guess).  

We still have to get through the July high of 1356.48.  We are sitting just under the July high now.  It may just roll over here.  We have had very thinly traded days lately so, it may not be too hard to squeeze above the July high here and test the May high this week?

Let's see what happens...  

That H&S pattern would potentially measure up to your wave 5 target exactly.

Nice chart.  And, that daily Steve posted sure looks like rhino horns and an evening star.  

In hind site,  I wonder if it will be obvious that 500 was the top?  Not ringing the bell, just saying...

Hi Steve,

Just a little help.  I have read this before, but I'm not sure what it would look like.  Could you explain what a 3-bar breakdown is? 

Could you provide a linkable version of this great chart please.

Tom, what do you mean there will be no second entry today?  Didn't we already have a second entry?  Am I mixed up again on entries into this system?

Keith,

I guess I can understand how some of their comments can seem short and cryptic or maybe they might seem like they don't explain things completely.  You do have to have a good understanding of what the outcome of things like, pennants and falling or rising wedges and other patterns, that are recognized by Steve and Matt during the day.  Hang in there and it will get easier.  

Also, listen carefully the night before when they talk about the charts and what possible patterns might play out.  You will see them post annotations to these charts the next day (of what they talked about the night before) as these likely outcomes play out during the market session.  This is a HUGE help to me. Big thanks to Steve and Matt for pointing out patterns as they develop during the day.  I trade a lot based on these and I believe you really need to watch these posts. 

I would bet that the issue you might have with some of their posts is that you have to know why they are posting chart patterns.  Sometimes they don't give a clinic every time they post something.  When they post something like, "Rising wedge playing out" you have to know that the wedge is expected to break against the direction of the wedge.  Sometimes they just post, "Nice Wedge on 5min SPY" and then they have a chart.  You are expected to know what to do with the info and trade on your own.  Once you get this and you get to this level, you will trade better because you aren't having your hand held and you aren't dependent on a "guru" to call exact trade numbers - there aren't any exact calls day in and day out.  

I do get that it would be nice if they add a little more like, for example, "Nice wedge forming - may break down to the 50dma."  But, sometimes/often they do exactly that.  

Another thing, there is a complexity of possible outcomes during the day that rely on a confluence of chart levels that my be from MAs, patterns, fibs and EW etc..  A lot of the time there is no comment that applies with certainty to a pattern that Matt or Steve identifies.  You have to be juggling many fluid technical concepts in your mind and apply these to your own style, timeframe, judgements and level of risk.  So, the charts that Matt and Steve post during the day are often just meant to be pointed out so you can use the info to add to your own construct of how your trading day is evolving. 

Good trading.

I came back to my desk and read this, then went and looked at the charts expecting to see that the market had shot up. So, what "push up" are you talking about?

I think that most of the weak shorts have been squeezed out by now with all of these, almost minute by minute,  Euro-news reports that have pretty much, by now, saturated the short's fear receptors.  It is going to have to be a pretty big story to move the market now.  And, it might be a case of sell the news once the market has digested what ever finally comes out.  As they say, it isn't the news but how the market reacts to it. 

The market is showing some relative strength on the short term time frames, especially when you consider that is sitting at the abyss of the 20dma on the monthly chart.  It has only 2 full trading days left to rally hard over the 1200 mark or risk closing the month on a monthly bear sell signal.

So, I like sitting in cash right now because, the volatility is so high right now, and between now and the end of the month it is going to be  coin toss to see which way we end the month.  Why guess?  Let the monthly chart plot your course for you.

MG, that is exactly what I'm thinking.  We are going to have to see a retest and possible overshoot of the previous lows.  The GM isn't going to bottom until that chart bottoms and historically the GM takes about 3 months to form a bottom after rates bottom.  That looks pretty bearish right now.

Pinching now tight.  First big move may be the wrong one...

Thanks.

Guys, buy price not indicators.  There is no magic.

Define "cooked."

Maybe that will play out as an inverted H&S, and third time will be charm.