24 hour data is critical in indices that trade around the globe.
But it's still the US session that matters most, and overnight
moves have to be confirmed in US RTH. You can see this by counting
how seldom the absolute high or low of a move is made outside RTH.
So I always calculate indicators off both (futures 24 & cash
RTH), and keep ONH/ONL as reference points for RTH.
"...the worldwide strength of brand-Canada..." Good one. That's
the kind of blather you get before the bottom falls out. That
housing bubble is so precarious with oil in the '40s.
Steve mentioned the commercials being short bonds in size. Here
are speculative non-commercial net positions & z-scores on 1Y
& 3Y bases. The things that stand out are:
1) the S&P, where specs have covered the bigger short
position built late last year and are almost neutral YoY;
2) Very long gold 1Y & 3Y
3) Very short $ 1Y -- potential reversions on ##2-4 don't favor
PMs near term
4) Yen long is extreme on 3Y
5) The specs, at least, are moving towards being long the 10Y as
a longer term conviction, but aren't there yet.
I maintain the position that speculators drive marginal prices,
and in that regard the runway is still long for the long bond --
with no near-term S&P covering pressure from here. The build in
Russell net shorts is likely to continue without real domestic
economic improvement.
Sounds like a cross between the original late, late night talk
show host, Tom Snyder & Paul Kangas of the Nightly Business
Report. Dan Ackroyd did a great Snyder.
One thing you could adapt for gaps: an opening range rule where
you take off your stop pre-market and then wait to see if there's
downside follow-through on a 5m or 15m range. There wasn't on JMEI
today - it shook people out on the open and didn't look back. Heck,
it never went below the 1m low. Hope that's helpful.
Sold out of RH back in the 100s because of macro, technical
& liquidity signals. It's not out of the woods, as the
non-discounting shift and high-end consumer headwinds are going to
work against them for a while. Obviously it can be a trading
vehicle, but when the dust settles and macro and index bottoms are
near, this could be an excellent swing. That is, if management can
navigate what could be an even more challenging 2016 than we've
seen so far.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Will be watching CME Monday for
Posted by a_l_ on 8th of Apr 2016 at 03:48 pm
Will be watching CME Monday for rtm potential
Tesla would not survive in
Musk gets compared with Steve Jobs, but that’s a mixed ...
Posted by a_l_ on 8th of Apr 2016 at 01:21 pm
Tesla would not survive in a free market, but it's just a blip compared to the auto bailout.
24 hour data is critical
ES 5 min H and SH target reached
Posted by a_l_ on 7th of Apr 2016 at 01:22 pm
24 hour data is critical in indices that trade around the globe. But it's still the US session that matters most, and overnight moves have to be confirmed in US RTH. You can see this by counting how seldom the absolute high or low of a move is made outside RTH. So I always calculate indicators off both (futures 24 & cash RTH), and keep ONH/ONL as reference points for RTH.
"...the worldwide strength of brand-Canada..."
Realtors warn Trump could drive even more demand for housing in Canada
Posted by a_l_ on 7th of Apr 2016 at 10:56 am
"...the worldwide strength of brand-Canada..." Good one. That's the kind of blather you get before the bottom falls out. That housing bubble is so precarious with oil in the '40s.
You're welcome. Will update with
Steve mentioned the commercials being short bonds in size. Here ...
Posted by a_l_ on 6th of Apr 2016 at 10:54 am
You're welcome. Will update with any significant changes, especially if extremes show up on both sides of the long bond.
Steve mentioned the commercials being
Posted by a_l_ on 6th of Apr 2016 at 10:31 am
Steve mentioned the commercials being short bonds in size. Here are speculative non-commercial net positions & z-scores on 1Y & 3Y bases. The things that stand out are:
1) the S&P, where specs have covered the bigger short position built late last year and are almost neutral YoY;
2) Very long gold 1Y & 3Y
3) Very short $ 1Y -- potential reversions on ##2-4 don't favor PMs near term
4) Yen long is extreme on 3Y
5) The specs, at least, are moving towards being long the 10Y as a longer term conviction, but aren't there yet.
I maintain the position that speculators drive marginal prices, and in that regard the runway is still long for the long bond -- with no near-term S&P covering pressure from here. The build in Russell net shorts is likely to continue without real domestic economic improvement.
I always listen 1.5x to
Tonight's newsletter ha ha Steve's voice
Posted by a_l_ on 5th of Apr 2016 at 11:10 pm
I always listen 1.5x to 2x anyway, so you guys never sound normal ;-)
Sounds like a cross between
Tonight's newsletter ha ha Steve's voice
Posted by a_l_ on 5th of Apr 2016 at 10:53 pm
Sounds like a cross between the original late, late night talk show host, Tom Snyder & Paul Kangas of the Nightly Business Report. Dan Ackroyd did a great Snyder.
There was a middle-east explosion
Oil???
Posted by a_l_ on 5th of Apr 2016 at 06:38 pm
There was a middle-east explosion rumor going around on the first spike.
Input on profits vs stock
click to show comments
Posted by a_l_ on 5th of Apr 2016 at 02:56 pm
Input on profits vs stock performance vs recessions...
One thing you could adapt
Sometimes you make all the right moves and can still lose $$$
Posted by a_l_ on 4th of Apr 2016 at 11:48 am
One thing you could adapt for gaps: an opening range rule where you take off your stop pre-market and then wait to see if there's downside follow-through on a 5m or 15m range. There wasn't on JMEI today - it shook people out on the open and didn't look back. Heck, it never went below the 1m low. Hope that's helpful.
Sold out of RH back
RH follow up
Posted by a_l_ on 30th of Mar 2016 at 11:21 am
Sold out of RH back in the 100s because of macro, technical & liquidity signals. It's not out of the woods, as the non-discounting shift and high-end consumer headwinds are going to work against them for a while. Obviously it can be a trading vehicle, but when the dust settles and macro and index bottoms are near, this could be an excellent swing. That is, if management can navigate what could be an even more challenging 2016 than we've seen so far.
Need R5 on the charts
IWM ...
Posted by a_l_ on 29th of Mar 2016 at 03:05 pm
Need R5 on the charts today
Mother Goose (the markets)...
SPX 120 with BPT MA and ATR Trailing Stop
Posted by a_l_ on 29th of Mar 2016 at 11:50 am
Mother Goose (the markets)...
Somebody paid me .40 for
Posted by a_l_ on 23rd of Mar 2016 at 05:43 pm
Somebody paid me .40 for Allm at the open. I hope they didn't top tick it for too long. They didn't take enough.
Well put, Matt.
TZA Update
Posted by a_l_ on 23rd of Mar 2016 at 04:41 pm
Well put, Matt.
Works on Chrome, at least.
SPX 60 min views
Posted by a_l_ on 21st of Mar 2016 at 10:30 pm
Works on Chrome, at least.
Sound is fine.
SPX 60 min views
Posted by a_l_ on 21st of Mar 2016 at 09:48 pm
Sound is fine.
Seems like every time I
Admin Note
Posted by a_l_ on 18th of Mar 2016 at 10:53 am
Seems like every time I travel, some stock I hold rips and then pulls back by the end of the trip. Just when there's no time to monitor it.
This was surprising: largest 5
SPX 5 min with pivots and comments
Posted by a_l_ on 18th of Mar 2016 at 12:49 am
This was surprising: largest 5 week VIX decline in its history.
Note that such declines have not typically been bearish going forward, but 2007 & 2008 were exceptions.