Here's another elevator shaft that provides an example of
options trading that may be helpful. Thanks to Steve, who posted on
the unusual options activity on 7/11, I looked at the group and the
stock and decided to buy calls outright. However, going out to
today's expiration didn't cost that much more and I try to err on
the side of time.
After the gap & go on 7/26, I moved a mental stop to half of
the gains, which would likely require more than just a 9 MA or even
50 MA RTM in an A-B-C setup.
That turned out to be the case and the C leg was strong &
clean (closes above the 5 MA with no days that would point to a
stop).
The doji after touching the 200 MA was followed by the kind of
breakthrough day with divergences that did warrant a stop at 50% of
that candle. Then the next day's doji got me to sell on that day,
as the options were down to 3 DTE.
An honest GPD report in a key factor that the Govt sets
(deflator). GDP would have been negative with this deflator last
quarter (which would have been an accurate reading). Somewhat
surprising on the sequential; not at all surprising on the
trend.
Fundamentally, no. Multiple leading negative factors in most
recent report. But of course the stock can bounce before going
lower. Will be surprised if 350 isn't hit in the 2nd half.
Read any prospectus for that matter. If you're worried about
physical vs paper, go with the allocated Canadian fund instead.
Just don't do it in an IRA.
The chart is using reported earnings. You're citing earnings
estimates and then making an assumption on a two year average of
those estimates. That in no way makes the chart misleading.
I would recommend analyzing TLT for signals on either TLT or
TBT. Put the charts side by side and you'll see that there wasn't a
double top in TLT, but was a double bottom after the open. The
underlying instruments (1x) give the signals; they don't look the
same on the leveraged.
WSJ headline. Why they never figure out that these yields are
mirroring growth slowing country- and world-wide is a mystery. And
now they are increasingly predicting larger recessionary
forces.
The yield on Japan's benchmark 20-year government bond fell below
zero for the first time ever and the 30-year yield was at just
0.015%, as investors seek safety after Britain's vote to leave the
European Union.
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Here's another elevator shaft that
MPEL huge July 29th Strike 13 Call Buyers
Posted by a_l_ on 19th of Aug 2016 at 03:17 pm
Here's another elevator shaft that provides an example of options trading that may be helpful. Thanks to Steve, who posted on the unusual options activity on 7/11, I looked at the group and the stock and decided to buy calls outright. However, going out to today's expiration didn't cost that much more and I try to err on the side of time.
After the gap & go on 7/26, I moved a mental stop to half of the gains, which would likely require more than just a 9 MA or even 50 MA RTM in an A-B-C setup.
That turned out to be the case and the C leg was strong & clean (closes above the 5 MA with no days that would point to a stop).
The doji after touching the 200 MA was followed by the kind of breakthrough day with divergences that did warrant a stop at 50% of that candle. Then the next day's doji got me to sell on that day, as the options were down to 3 DTE.
Thanks again, Steve. That was a big win.
Roll-up model = Valeant =
HAIN
Posted by a_l_ on 16th of Aug 2016 at 09:51 am
Roll-up model = Valeant = Hain = failed model
Here's Grantham's 7 year forecast,
Public Pension problems
Posted by a_l_ on 2nd of Aug 2016 at 10:12 am
Here's Grantham's 7 year forecast, which has a very good track record over the decades.
An honest GPD report in
Weaker Than Expected GDP Report
Posted by a_l_ on 29th of Jul 2016 at 09:47 am
An honest GPD report in a key factor that the Govt sets (deflator). GDP would have been negative with this deflator last quarter (which would have been an accurate reading). Somewhat surprising on the sequential; not at all surprising on the trend.
GDP tomorrow AM. Could be
TLT decent move
Posted by a_l_ on 29th of Jul 2016 at 01:23 am
GDP tomorrow AM. Could be double the 2 handle expected sequentially.
Very decent. Thinking of tightening
TLT decent move
Posted by a_l_ on 27th of Jul 2016 at 02:35 pm
Very decent. Thinking of tightening up or cutting trading positions in bonds ahead of what may be a very strong sequential GDP number on Friday.
MPEL moving
MPEL huge July 29th Strike 13 Call Buyers
Posted by a_l_ on 26th of Jul 2016 at 09:58 am
MPEL moving
TOS shows UVXY up 393%;
Posted by a_l_ on 25th of Jul 2016 at 09:31 am
TOS shows UVXY up 393%; good to see technology on top of things.
Well put, as always, Steve.
Important Discussion Relating to Mapping and Trading
Posted by a_l_ on 25th of Jul 2016 at 02:08 am
Well put, as always, Steve.
Fundamentally, no. Multiple leading negative
CMG
Posted by a_l_ on 22nd of Jul 2016 at 10:34 am
Fundamentally, no. Multiple leading negative factors in most recent report. But of course the stock can bounce before going lower. Will be surprised if 350 isn't hit in the 2nd half.
Read any prospectus for that
GLD
Posted by a_l_ on 12th of Jul 2016 at 04:44 pm
Read any prospectus for that matter. If you're worried about physical vs paper, go with the allocated Canadian fund instead. Just don't do it in an IRA.
The chart is using reported
Roberts - PE ratios & future returns
Posted by a_l_ on 11th of Jul 2016 at 01:04 pm
The chart is using reported earnings. You're citing earnings estimates and then making an assumption on a two year average of those estimates. That in no way makes the chart misleading.
Thanks for the heads up,
MPEL huge July 29th Strike 13 Call Buyers
Posted by a_l_ on 11th of Jul 2016 at 11:30 am
Thanks for the heads up, Steve
Thanks for those views, soldado...
DEMARK on TLT on DAILY, WEEKLY, MONTHLY
Posted by a_l_ on 8th of Jul 2016 at 09:18 pm
Thanks for those views, soldado...
Looks like a bad TLT
Posted by a_l_ on 8th of Jul 2016 at 04:59 pm
Looks like a bad TLT print based on ZBs, but Nasdaq does show it trading to that high over a few minutes before coming back down.
I would recommend analyzing TLT
TBT
Posted by a_l_ on 8th of Jul 2016 at 02:34 pm
I would recommend analyzing TLT for signals on either TLT or TBT. Put the charts side by side and you'll see that there wasn't a double top in TLT, but was a double bottom after the open. The underlying instruments (1x) give the signals; they don't look the same on the leveraged.
And bond yields down
Gold has recovered all losses following the NFP report
Posted by a_l_ on 8th of Jul 2016 at 09:26 am
And bond yields down
Please use the subject line
Weds Jack's Wrap
Posted by a_l_ on 7th of Jul 2016 at 10:51 am
Please use the subject line to minimize these long posts.
WSJ headline. Why they never
Posted by a_l_ on 6th of Jul 2016 at 12:44 am
WSJ headline. Why they never figure out that these yields are mirroring growth slowing country- and world-wide is a mystery. And now they are increasingly predicting larger recessionary forces.
Japan's 20-Year Government Bond Yield Goes Negative for First Time
The yield on Japan's benchmark 20-year government bond fell below zero for the first time ever and the 30-year yield was at just 0.015%, as investors seek safety after Britain's vote to leave the European Union.
You and yours too, Steve
Have a Great Holiday Weekend Everyone
Posted by a_l_ on 1st of Jul 2016 at 04:09 pm
You and yours too, Steve & Matt