That's what I've been talking about for months here. But, keep in mind there was no large bond market in Germany at the time, to keep a lid on inflation. However, we can still get a large further drop in purchasing power of currencies in coming years. How we will know it is happening is by the price of precious metals rising. That makes the current rising stock market a game of musical chairs, where (once it's over) there will be no chairs available for anyone....

another nice call boys

thanks for these and your other posts. FWIW there are a cluster of cycles peaking right on Dec 31 - Jan1, also I have one for Dec 23rd. I am going to look to start positioning for another turn in the S&P. YMMV

can you post some graphs of what ur looking at?

see my earlier posts about the crack-up boom. That's what I think this is, it has nothing to do with fundamentals

I merely posted the link, I didn't produce it. But there are valid  questions about how much physical these ETF's have. I'm not going to go into it at length, but  you should  also check out the CFTC hearings from earlier this year, GATA, the JPM scandal about manipulating  bullion markets etc. But hey, if you want to take the word of the guys running the ETF's then go ahead. I won't stop you.

And I don't think it's cool that you posted a misleading title with my username. If you had a question you could have pm'ed me. Maybe I shouldn't bother posting here anymore.

Yes. The way I do point & figure (old school 1x1) I get 8.50, then 9 1/2 -10, then 12 as potential targets. Take one phase count at a time. They don't always use up the full count.

For those of you who don't know, pnf gives amazingly accurate counts, and it tells you where a reversal is likely to occur too. Find an old Wyckoff book and read it.

Matt and Steve occasionally post a neat NYSI indicator - it is the daily cumulative with a 13-day ema. It has been on a buy since July and correctly dismissed the idea of a plunge to lower lows in August. This is worth keeping an eye on too (it is losing momentum right now).....

thanks for the post Steve. BTW, the neg divergence in the weekly NYSE A/D was a great indicator of a failing breakout in Oct 2007.......that showed the weak Dec 2007 rally to be a retest of the high and the last great exit point.

Note there were no divergences since the 2009 low, not even at the April 2010 high.

So it's definitely one of the better indicators of the major trend, even if non-operating companies are included. Does anyone have a source for the S&P 500  A/D? That would be purer....

I'd encourage all members to give referrals for BP to at least 4 friends each. We can all do this

BTW, take a look at SU and IMO on weekly charts

Kudos.  The way your trade ideas and watch list have evolved is awesome; very user friendly and I love the live links, and alarms. This must have been a lot of hard work and expense for you guys - it is appreciated.

not a recommendation, do your own d.d. and keep in mind the cycles I posted earlier.

SU is a senior for sure, also Imperial (IMO). Two others pop up as interesting  - ATH and COS.un. COS is converting from a unit deal. I am anticipating foreign countries making deals with Canada to get some reserves of their own outside of the middle east.

recall a few days ago it came out that 'someone' had cornered a big chunk of copper? I'm told that someone is JPM and they are planning a new Copper ETF. Caveat Emptor on all metal ETF's.....

yes. I tend to not look at the USO because it's not really 100% correlated. I look at the seniors, XOI, XLE, etc

nice chart. Personally I am  looking for a late Dec low in oil, a rally into late Jan 2011, then a bigger selloff into March-April 2011. That should be a huge buying opportunity because I expect it to test or even exceed the 2008 high (in $US). A person who doesn't want to trade could just ride out the corrections for the next 4- 5 months, waiting for the rally to test $140, but it should offer plenty of action.

BTW my fave area is the Cdn oil sands - they are very cheap relative to other companies.

Thanks. This bears some analysis. Everyone wants to just compare the past few years, but we should be comparing how the sentiment behaved in bull market runs too. At the bottom of the page you posted, there is a link to a bunch of historical data. It does not run prior to 1987 unfortunately - looking at the 1980's should be instructional. But even the 1990's is worth doing.

Maybe Matt and/or Steve could check this out; or some other intrepid member (I don't know how to create graphs out of Excel).

a video worth watching, and worth showing your 16+ kids

http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=Z2mf8DtWWd8

I've said this about bullion ETF's before. This guy is a patriot and has a lot of videos

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yEfLzZHDtBc&feature=uploademail

thanks, but note Peter Munk is not to be trusted. He's been helping suppress bullion prices