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Yeah, this has been a

very nice week on BABA

Posted by rjdst on 25th of Jun 2021 at 04:07 pm

Yeah, this has been a great trade.  Making up for my poor entry on HLX...

Yeah, exited awhile back. Downside of not being able to manage more than 8-10 positions is that I don't keep very small positions to let them run like this; I close to make room for something new.  I don't like putting in stop orders on bigger positions, but may need to think about doing that just in these situations so I can leave a little to run.

LPI - absolutely unstoppable.  Long

Posted by rjdst on 25th of Jun 2021 at 11:03 am

LPI - absolutely unstoppable.  Long ago exited, but it continues to ignore resistance.

Similar here, smaller position size is very helpful - it enables the repeated experience and positive reinforcement of being able to hold through a pullback and riding price back up.  

A couple of issues that I experience... if stocks are bouncing after stopping you out, are your stops too conservative given the typical trading range of the stock (and logical support)?  That happens to me when I take too big a position and try to manage risk by setting stops tighter than what price actions indicates is a reasonable stop.  

I used to consider max % loss when planning my stops.  For me, doesn't work so well.  Now I more often think about max $ loss.  If I'm going to get uncomfortable if I'm down $300 on a single position, and a logical stop is 4% below current price, then I shouldn't be taking a position that exceeds $7,500.   If the logical stop is 6% below current price, then max position size should be $5k.  

I also look at average daily moves of a stock.  If something is high beta and moves 5, 7 or 10% on a regular basis, I have no business getting into it if I feel my stop has to be just a few % lower than current price.  One average intraday move could stop me out.  I'm more confident and trade better when taking positions that would require at least a couple days' worth of avg. decline to stop me out.  

GE - breaking over the

Posted by rjdst on 24th of Jun 2021 at 03:21 pm

GE - breaking over the downtrend line from early June.  Put in a higher low yesterday.  60min chart.

HLX - very interesting comparison

HLX technical observation

Posted by rjdst on 24th of Jun 2021 at 01:04 pm

HLX - very interesting comparison to LPI which has doubled since mid-May.  HLX looking poised to do something similar, possibly.   

LPI took off after it broke over resistance that went back to last Nov.  HLX has a similar chart, and is just now approaching that resistance from below.  Obviously different companies with different products/services; just noting the similarities in the technical setup.

I took a sizeable position this morning, a little after that pullback.  Looking to add upon BO.

Agreed.  Some think it's bearish, some think there's value in reducing the number of shares.  Who knows.  Maybe Culp gets a bonus when the stock gets above $100.     

TLRY and CRON - liking

Posted by rjdst on 24th of Jun 2021 at 12:28 pm

TLRY and CRON - liking these charts.  A lot of the pot stocks are smokin' after a months long drop/consolidation.  

GE was mentioned here awhile

Posted by rjdst on 24th of Jun 2021 at 11:26 am

GE was mentioned here awhile back.  It's one I trade regularly in addition to a core IRA position.  As FYI, there's a reverse 1:8 split coming up on Aug 2nd, two weeks after earnings.  

Dividend pays out tomorrow.  Back up your piggie bank for the pennies....

GOLD stocks... obviously very banged

Posted by rjdst on 23rd of Jun 2021 at 11:10 am

GOLD stocks... obviously very banged up, many VERY oversold.  Scanning my charts for the best looking patterns. 

AEM and KL both have inverse H&S, are just completing the right shoulder formation and haven't yet gone green like many others.    Potential low-risk entries.  Pattern targets are attractive as well:  AEM - 20%;  KL - 27%

Yes, closing inside the BB is the signal, but not the confirmation.  The note in the chart says, that to confirm, the close the day after it re-enters the BB must be lower than the close on the day of the reentry.   Can always go long on the signal if the market is feeling strong instead of waiting for confirmation.

To confirm, we'd still need a close tomorrow that is lower than today's close (w/in the BB), is that correct?  

BPT update - pulled back

Posted by rjdst on 21st of Jun 2021 at 10:26 am

BPT update - pulled back to the 9EMA last Thurs, nice bounce on Friday with follow-through today.    

Ding!  4166.  If we had hit that mid-day, bounced and ended up, I'd be feeling more bullish.  Don't like that we dribbled down and ended near LOD.  Also no neg divergence on the 30 or 60min; setting up a little on the 15min.  

Closed out my ENPH for 18% gain.  Was going to leave a little to run but things feel pretty squishy.  Kept my FLUX though - saw 50% higher volume on today's move, so feel okay that it can hold up even if market is down on Mon.

GDX at the .618 now,

Posted by rjdst on 18th of Jun 2021 at 03:15 pm

GDX at the .618 now, which is also former resistance turned support.  Also closed the gap (1hr chart) from Apr 30.   Low-risk entry for a bounce or swing trade, but I think I'm done with PMs until they exhibit strength.  Better risk/reward opportuities out there.

UEC.  I posted recently as

Posted by rjdst on 18th of Jun 2021 at 12:37 pm

UEC.  I posted recently as a bullish coil (pink), but wanted to update with an alternative interpretation - a bearish rising wedge (blue).   With MAs pointing down, crossing over bearishly, I'm favoring the wedge interpretation.   No position at this time.

ENPH - for anyone that

Posted by rjdst on 18th of Jun 2021 at 12:18 pm

ENPH - for anyone that played this from last week, it has just about closed that open gap.  Been a killer trade.  Will be taking some off, letting some run.  Beyond the gap, next resistance is the prior high at $175, so about 5% higher.   

FLUX finally showing some follow through.   May roll some ENPH profits over here to add to my position.

UUUU - sold last week

UUUU found willing buyers at the 50 ma

Posted by rjdst on 18th of Jun 2021 at 10:56 am

UUUU - sold last week and monitoring for reentry, but not liking how the MAs are pointing down with 9 crossing down over the 20.  If it doesn't sustain this bounce, it may revisit the lower trendline.

Maybe one more push down to 4168, then bounce...?

FLUX... looks ready to join

Posted by rjdst on 17th of Jun 2021 at 03:02 pm

FLUX... looks ready to join the ENPH and SPWR party.  Posted this on the 10th; it has lagged the others, but the setup still looks great.  Low volume stock.


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