Yes, the second year of a presidential term is usually the 4
year low. Also, it is usually the 4th quarter of the
year (ie. Oct 2002). The rationale is that all the bad
medicine is metered out in the first two years. Then the
incumbants get wacked in the House. The other members of the
house focus on the greatest risk of all "career risk". The rally
from the 4th quarter of the second year thru the 3rd year (15
months) has been very profitable. Two years ago, I thought
the end to this would be Q4 2010, I havn't changed my mind.
I was just starting at Merrill Lynch end of August 1987.
The biggest difference I can remember is the long bond went from 7%
in the spring to 9.5% on the day of the crash. Merrill was
hiring like crazy and the veteran brokers thought that was an
indicator of a top in the market. People could live on 9+%
yields, not what we see today. If we get 7% long yields
again, you will see baby boomer money leave the market for
good.
I am a long time Phillies fan. Len Dykstra is a product of
steroids and his parents may have been related! He was on top
of the world in 2007 and is in the toilet now. As they say,
"Life is tough, but it's tougher when your stupid."
We have had 6 trading days where SRS has been a 2 dollar
range. That is 156 fifteen minute bars. Don't you think
that a 9 and 39 ema would compress, and maybe give some false
signals! SRS looks like it changing it's trend
(slowly). The system has been the benefit of some very good
trending moves. Losses happen, it a fact of life. If we
break above 22.50 we will start a trend. Till then, nobody
wins in a congested market.
The bonds are available on Overstock.com. It seems
our government printed too many and the end runs were sent to
Overstock. They are on sale for 40% off. Oh wait, that
price is available everywhere.
Matt, Your picture did not update from yeaterday. I have a
question. I use TS and when I call up that symbol, my chart
is 30 min delayed. Is yours realtime and is that an
additional service by TS?
Ravun, I have an old copy of Advanced GET 7 and use it from time
to time. This was out in the late 90s by a company called
Trading Techniques before they sold out to esignal. I can
only use daily data. Check out the MOB (make or break) and
the ellipse time and price retracements. Good luck with your
adventure. If you have questions, let me know.
Hopefully, I can remember that far back.
Sorry, I have been away and caught only pieces of the updates
for the last 2 days. Did I read something about a new
system? If so, where can I read more?
Regards,
Ralph
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Happy Birthday!
Happy Birthday Matt
Posted by ralph on 24th of May 2010 at 04:10 pm
It is my wife's birthday also. They say that age is just a number, but that number gets bigger and heavier as you get older.
Ralph
I think @es is a
continuous contracts
Posted by ralph on 24th of Apr 2010 at 08:16 pm
I think @es is a continuous contract
FED Spread etc.
Updates - FED Spread and KC24 Weekly, and FXI Leading.
Posted by ralph on 12th of Mar 2010 at 10:21 am
Thanks Mike,
Interesting stuff. Where can I go to learn more?
Ralph
Ro-Ray! Astro
For the Astro-minded in the group
Posted by ralph on 26th of Feb 2010 at 01:28 pm
Ro-Ray!
Astro
Barney Frank
Rep. Barney Frank Will Recommend Abolishing Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac in Their Current Form
Posted by ralph on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 02:49 pm
Is it me, or does his ancestoral tree go back to Barney Rubble?
Ralph
Presidential cycle low
2010 and 4 yr cycle lows
Posted by ralph on 11th of Jan 2010 at 07:57 pm
Yes, the second year of a presidential term is usually the 4 year low. Also, it is usually the 4th quarter of the year (ie. Oct 2002). The rationale is that all the bad medicine is metered out in the first two years. Then the incumbants get wacked in the House. The other members of the house focus on the greatest risk of all "career risk". The rally from the 4th quarter of the second year thru the 3rd year (15 months) has been very profitable. Two years ago, I thought the end to this would be Q4 2010, I havn't changed my mind.
Ralph
New ETF GDXJ
Posted by ralph on 13th of Nov 2009 at 02:16 pm
Apologies if this has been posted, buy it looks like Van Eck has brought a Gold Miners Juniors ETF (GDXJ). Attached is a link.
http://www.etftrends.com/2009/11/new-van-eck-etf-tracks-gold-mining-juniors.html
Ralph
Old Guy
Anybody here old enough to experience Aug 1987?
Posted by ralph on 22nd of Aug 2009 at 08:41 pm
I was just starting at Merrill Lynch end of August 1987. The biggest difference I can remember is the long bond went from 7% in the spring to 9.5% on the day of the crash. Merrill was hiring like crazy and the veteran brokers thought that was an indicator of a top in the market. People could live on 9+% yields, not what we see today. If we get 7% long yields again, you will see baby boomer money leave the market for good.
Free Level 2
Posted by ralph on 16th of Jul 2009 at 10:35 am
Client told me about this site. Thought I'd pass it along.
http://www.batstrading.com/home/
Regards,
Ralph
Thank You SEC
The familiar Nightmare
Posted by ralph on 11th of Jul 2009 at 10:16 pm
I will sleep more comfortably tonight knowing you are looking out for me.
Bernie M.
Dykstra
Posted by ralph on 10th of Jul 2009 at 09:02 pm
I am a long time Phillies fan. Len Dykstra is a product of steroids and his parents may have been related! He was on top of the world in 2007 and is in the toilet now. As they say, "Life is tough, but it's tougher when your stupid."
Ralph
8/21/50
Posted by ralph on 10th of Jul 2009 at 01:33 pm
Matt,
How do you view your 8/21/50 right now?
Ralph
There are old traders and
SSO
Posted by ralph on 10th of Jul 2009 at 12:01 pm
There are old traders and there are bold traders. But there are no old, bold traders!
Ralph
OK Matt, Where did those
gotta love when the mechanicals have you both short and ...
Posted by ralph on 7th of Jul 2009 at 03:55 pm
OK Matt, Where did those indicators come from?
Enquiring minds want to know.
Ralph
SRS system
SRS mechanical having another brutal day
Posted by ralph on 25th of Jun 2009 at 01:02 pm
We have had 6 trading days where SRS has been a 2 dollar range. That is 156 fifteen minute bars. Don't you think that a 9 and 39 ema would compress, and maybe give some false signals! SRS looks like it changing it's trend (slowly). The system has been the benefit of some very good trending moves. Losses happen, it a fact of life. If we break above 22.50 we will start a trend. Till then, nobody wins in a congested market.
Bonds
This is the strangest thing I've heard in a long ...
Posted by ralph on 13th of Jun 2009 at 10:47 am
The bonds are available on Overstock.com. It seems our government printed too many and the end runs were sent to Overstock. They are on sale for 40% off. Oh wait, that price is available everywhere.
Ralph
PTI
SPX 60
Posted by ralph on 8th of Jun 2009 at 02:08 pm
Thats interesting. The PTI level in the old days was 35
Ralph
$VOLSPDC
Matt VOLUME
Posted by ralph on 4th of Jun 2009 at 11:46 am
Matt, Your picture did not update from yeaterday. I have a question. I use TS and when I call up that symbol, my chart is 30 min delayed. Is yours realtime and is that an additional service by TS?
Thanks,
Ralph
GET
Very
Posted by ralph on 3rd of Jun 2009 at 10:34 am
Ravun, I have an old copy of Advanced GET 7 and use it from time to time. This was out in the late 90s by a company called Trading Techniques before they sold out to esignal. I can only use daily data. Check out the MOB (make or break) and the ellipse time and price retracements. Good luck with your adventure. If you have questions, let me know. Hopefully, I can remember that far back.
Ralph
SRS new system?
Posted by ralph on 2nd of Jun 2009 at 11:18 am
Sorry, I have been away and caught only pieces of the updates for the last 2 days. Did I read something about a new system? If so, where can I read more?
Regards,
Ralph